Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 The mean has an elonmgated low with SE winds. Probably more or less hinting at a cutter despite the mean MSLP.Hipefully one of the two is a screamer with damage. If the second can't be snow , may as well wind it to 970 and scream some winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Plenty of time at 10-11 day lead. Would be a nice deal if it's a cold storm Nov 2 Gift for number 43? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Hipefully one of the two is a screamer with damage. If the second can't be snow , may as well wind it to 970 and scream some winds Snow would be quite damaging this time of year, especially for SNE. I'm not even close to peak color down here in NNJ. Sitting at < 1% leaf drop so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Please 2 cutters next week..send relief U.S. Drought Monitor Northeast Download: October 20, 2015 (Released Thursday October 22, 2015) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I can picture Kevin salivating Thursdays constantly hitting refresh on the drought monitor page. Total drought fetish. The Daredevil of Drought. Watching over all of Ct using his special sonar flying through the streets to combat drought wherever it may popup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That's never going to stick like the Sultan has for you. Tell Eric nice work though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That's never going to stick like the Sultan has for you. Tell Eric nice work though I did it, just because you say it won't. I shall post it every time you mention drought for eternity. Daredevil of Drought will stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Snow would be quite damaging this time of year, especially for SNE. I'm not even close to peak color down here in NNJ. Sitting at < 1% leaf drop so far.No way you are at <1% leaf drop. Out here on the island about 25% even smack in the middle of Manhattan it's around 10-20% being as im in charge of leaf removal on a campus I notice these things. I guess you live in a pure stand of oaks.A 970s cutter is a stretch. But climatology does support a powerful cutter as we head in to November. Add the juiced stj and it's possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 No way you are at <1% leaf drop. Out here on the island about 25% even smack in the middle of Manhattan it's around 10-20% being as im in charge of leaf removal on a campus I notice these things. I guess you live in a pure stand of oaks. A 970s cutter is a stretch. But climatology does support a powerful cutter as we head in to November. Add the juiced stj and it's possible Not to mention well above SST in the western Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 We cut and cut again 22-10-2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I can picture Kevin salivating Thursdays constantly hitting refresh on the drought monitor page. Total drought fetish. The Daredevil of Drought. Watching over all of Ct using his special sonar flying through the streets to combat drought wherever it may popup I don't quite understand, you would think if Mr. DIT loves damaging weather, he'd like drought, since drought can be just as damaging as big flooding. Must be the lack of excitement during drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Nothing wrong with a late October cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Nothing wrong with a late October cutter. As long as they bring high winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 As long as they bring high winds Probably won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Lot of CAD with that thing before it finally rips west of us,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Probably won't. In the warm sector it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 In the warm sector it will Well that settles it then!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I don't get the sou' east wind fetish.....hardly ever damaging, especially interior. I guess a bit more often at elevations, but bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 In the warm sector it will Name a damaging cutter in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Well that settles it then!! He's gotten to you. You never display emotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Isn't this an October pattern thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 October storms rarely have the LLJ and can be inverted heavily. The storm that happened at the end of october in 2006 was 100kts at 850 and blew down a twig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Once in a blue moon you can get good winds in a fall southeaster, but it needs to be stronger LLJ than what is depicted. It's actually easier to get them in mid/late November or December since the LLJs at that point are usually a lot stronger with the PJ further south and stronger. We got one in Nov '95 and the Dec '00 cutter too was ferocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That December one was a beast. Lost power in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I remember the Nov 95 one...rained like hell around sunrise at about 60/60. Then the front roared through and we had flurries a few hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 Once in a blue moon you can get good winds in a fall southeaster, but it needs to be stronger LLJ than what is depicted. It's actually easier to get them in mid/late November or December since the LLJs at that point are usually a lot stronger with the PJ further south and stronger. We got one in Nov '95 and the Dec '00 cutter too was ferocious. the other thing is that Novie systems benefit from steeper lapses rates over water, such that LLJ or a portion of their momentum may be mixed down more readily, and once down...look out...at least for coastal communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Name a damaging cutter in October. Not sure if it was in Oct. 1979 or 1980 (probably '80), but a SE gale flattened about 80,000 cords of mainly spruce about 10-15 miles NW of Katahdin - from the air it looked like lodged oats after an August TS, just on a grand scale. Wind probably got some acceleration whirling around the S. side of the mts? The SE gale of 11/12/95 resulted in salvage of 2,000 cords on Holeb Twp, west of Jackman, and one of the 3 torch-deluges in Jan 1996 (probably the final one) gusted to 70 mph in central Maine and toppled a lot of trees. We lost power in that Dec 2000 wind as well; it also produced one of the most earth-shaking CG bolts of my experience, at 2 AM. We picked up nearly 10,000 cords after that on a township (t13R12 WELS) we manage about 50 miles SW of Ft. Kent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Nov 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Not sure if it was in Oct. 1979 or 1980 (probably '80), but a SE gale flattened about 80,000 cords of mainly spruce about 10-15 miles NW of Katahdin - from the air it looked like lodged oats after an August TS, just on a grand scale. Wind probably got some acceleration whirling around the S. side of the mts? The SE gale of 11/12/95 resulted in salvage of 2,000 cords on Holeb Twp, west of Jackman, and one of the 3 torch-deluges in Jan 1996 (probably the final one) gusted to 70 mph in central Maine and toppled a lot of trees. We lost power in that Dec 2000 wind as well; it also produced one of the most earth-shaking CG bolts of my experience, at 2 AM. We picked up nearly 10,000 cords after that on a township (t13R12 WELS) we manage about 50 miles SW of Ft. Kent. Yes, had thunder in that too. That was a doozy. Up there with the one in Jan 2006 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 October storms rarely have the LLJ and can be inverted heavily. The storm that happened at the end of october in 2006 was 100kts at 850 and blew down a twig. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/2006/Oct_28-29_2006/Oct_28-29_2006.htm With an area of high pressure offshore, a low pressure system rapidly intensified and moved northeast across Western NY State. An increasing southeast pressure gradient caused high winds Saturday morning and afternoon. High winds combined with heavy rain downed many trees, tree limbs, and wires across the region. An increasing northwest pressure gradient behind the front resulted in additional wind damage through early Sunday afternoon October 29th. Event Narrative A trained spotter reported wind gusts to 66 mph at Bradley Point on West Haven Beach in West Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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