Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Are we back to BDL now? The hilltown fetish on hiatus? BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 BOS Yeah I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Looks like 60-65 here. Why is Tolland so much warmer than the Worcester region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 lol, no that was last winter. 09-10 was so far south it didn't even hurt that much. Ha, maybe it was okay in Vt, but I lived in southern Ct at the time and could watch the precip shield from all those MA storms hit a wall just south of Long Island and jet east. Confluence has been a dirty word for me ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Ha, maybe it was okay in Vt, but I lived in southern Ct at the time and could watch the precip shield from all those MA storms hit a wall just south of Long Island and jet east. Confluence has been a dirty word for me ever since. Meanwhile central and northern Maine were obliterating warmth records for the first 1/3 of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I'm not sure why he gets so hung up on it, but probabilistic forecasting can be useful. We've established that equal chances really means there is no signal. So you default to the curve on the right (assuming snowfall is a normal distribution). Now CPC considers equal chances to be 33% of the time always (except in extremely strong signals). If CPC then says 20% chance of below normal, all you are doing is shifting the distribution left. Below normal values grow at the expense of above normal, leaving equal chances untouched (until above normal values no longer exist). If you think of a normal distribution then 33% of your data would be +/- 0.5 standard deviations from your normal value. BOS as an example normal is 43", then normal snowfall is anywhere between 33 and 53". Problem is that is a fairly narrow range (we're talking maybe less than 2" QPF over the course of 4-5 months). So if there is no signal, it's hard to definitively say which bin snowfall will fall into (above, below, or normal). It is even more complicated if you see it even more black and white, as in 44" is above normal and 42" is below normal. That truly could be a coin flip, and a rogue snow squall difference. Equal chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Some folks just don't understand it, so naturally they bash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Ran across the ASOS call in and web links page for ASOS if anyone is interested http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/weather/asos/?state=CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I think we as mets get it, but the public doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Ran across the ASOS call in and web links page for ASOS if anyone is interested http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/weather/asos/?state=CT On a related note, RKD got upgraded to an AWOS-C recently. And nobody knows what that is, but it's acting like an ASOS now (i.e. updates on the hour, can spit out a SPECI, reports present wx). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 On a related note, RKD got upgraded to an AWOS-C recently. And nobody knows what that is, but it's acting like an ASOS now (i.e. updates on the hour, can spit out a SPECI, reports present wx). when did Boston ASOS go operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 when did Boston ASOS go operational? According to NCDC, April 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 According to NCDC, April 1996. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 ThanksMost were in 96 when we converted over to METAR from SA obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Most were in 96 when we converted over to METAR from SA obs. NTH SA 1454 45 SCT E100 BKN 10+ 111/45/43/2703/986 6005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 NTH SA 1454 45 SCT E100 BKN 10+ 111/45/43/2703/986 6005 I remember Cantore talking about "S+" one time in the early 90s on TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 NTH SA 1454 45 SCT E100 BKN 10+ 111/45/43/2703/986 6005 lol...I can still read the SA's better than I can the METARs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 No one wants to look at a map and see equal chances, or 33%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 No one wants to look at a map and see equal chances, or 33%. In all seriousness, the public really doesn't understand what above or below normal means, but the majority of the complaints here are because no one wants to look at a map and see anything other than above normal (snowfall that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I remember Cantore talking about "S+" one time in the early 90s on TWC. I actually call it S+ still...lol. I like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 We still have a SA algorithm in our database for US stations. Nice quick and dirty way of looking at obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Winsexy near the Cape tts 51! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 MOS has a high of 40 for ORH Sunday. Legit chance high of 39? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 In all seriousness, the public really doesn't understand what above or below normal means, but the majority of the complaints here are because no one wants to look at a map and see anything other than above normal (snowfall that is).lol.The forum collective wants 90% chance of above normal precip and 90% chance of below normal temps. That means there's still a 10% chance winter sucks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 MOS has a high of 40 for ORH Sunday. Legit chance high of 39? Been thinking upper 30's for about 5 days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I'll take the over on 39.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 lol. The forum collective wants 90% chance of above normal precip and 90% chance of below normal temps. That means there's still a 10% chance winter sucks though. with the primary analog years being 93-94, 95-96, 02-03, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I'll take the over on 39.5F should be close though .. id take the over too, but some afternoon clouds could keep the temp down close to 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 with the primary analog years being 93-94, 95-96, 02-03, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 '92-'93 and '00-'01 I would take too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 What would this pattern yield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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