CT Rain Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 You have no idea what you are talking about. He's making a pretty big push for his yearly autumn 5 ppd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 He's making a pretty big push for his yearly autumn 5 ppd. Agreed. Maybe he needs a break and just come back around T-day when indian summer and 70F mild spells are no longer expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 LOL good catch. I think going climo by default is the "consensus", but who are the posters calling for a blockbuster winter? Going climo to me is pretty much a coin toss, so there really is no consensus for above normal or below normal snow or temps. Then they are no better than NCEP with their equal chances. Grab the weenie and ballz(whole unit) and make a forecast I'm referring to = chances You made the comparison that forecasting climo is like equal chances and want people to "grab the ballz" and make a forecast. What that sounds like is you don't want someone to forecast climo (even though statistically that will be more accurate on an annual basis), and would rather they make an extreme claim one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Why are you doing that? You beat me to it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 This is becoming burdensome to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 You have no idea what you are talking about. Since when isn't someone allowed to voice their thoughts? Right or wrong? If you don't like my opinion..please don't read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 This is becoming burdensome to read. Apologies, you are right. Last two pages belong in banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Since when isn't someone allowed to voice their thoughts? Right or wrong? If you don't like my opinion..please don't read it Saying someone who forecasts equal chances on a long range forecast doesn't deserve to be a met is just a plain idiotic statement and is based on pure ignorance of what goes into long range forecasts. That kind of stuff isn't going to be posted in here. We have a higher standard for a reason on this site. Maybe go to accuwx forums if you want to have that type of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 NO it is never a coin flip. Anyone who forecasts that way does not deserve to be a met A really unfair comment, IMO. If the atmospheric players aren't providing anything approaching clear guidance, then calling for "no signal" climo is honesty, not cowardice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Since when isn't someone allowed to voice their thoughts? Right or wrong? If you don't like my opinion..please don't read it It's actually not a valid opinion. You're obviously completely unfamiliar with long range forecasting and statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Then they are no better than NCEP with their equal chances. Grab the weenie and ballz(whole unit) and make a forecast I don't think you get it. I'm thinking near normal snow for Boston not because it's a coin flip and an easy go to default forecast, but for a couple of reasons. I thought it was a good start. I'm not sold on a good winter on the coast and also, I don't believe in a furnace 97-98 winter. Therefore , with some educational reasoning, that is my guess. People who argue equal chances aren't always defaulting to a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I don't think you get it. I'm thinking near normal snow for Boston not because it's a coin flip and an easy go to default forecast, but for a couple of reasons. I thought it was a good start. I'm not sold on a good winter on the coast and also, I don't believe in a furnace 97-98 winter. Therefore , with some educational reasoning, that is my guess. People who argue equal chances aren't always defaulting to a coin flip.Thats different than equal chances. You said near normal. That is a finite number and forecast since we know what normal is. I have no problem with that. I'm talking about when all you see is s map with blue and orange colors that says equal chances. That is not a forecast. It's ignorance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Thats different than equal chances. You said near normal. That is a finite number and forecast since we know what normal is. I have no problem with that. I'm talking about when all you see is s map with blue and orange colors that says equal chances. That is not a forecast. It's ignorance One is a probability map and the other is actual values. If you don't like probability maps, then avoid them...but they are a part of forecasting. They will probably become more common too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 One is a probability map and the other is actual values. If you don't like probability maps, then avoid them...but they are a part of forecasting. They will probably become more common too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Thats different than equal chances. You said near normal. That is a finite number and forecast since we know what normal is. I have no problem with that. I'm talking about when all you see is s map with blue and orange colors that says equal chances. That is not a forecast. It's ignorance But it's also probability because there are no clear signals. That's what those maps mean. Equal chances because in their eyes, there are no definitive reasons to lean one way or another. I agree with that. My response with near normal was a response to your posts about making a call one way or another. They actually are in those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 This may have already been discussed...but did anyone check out the 12z gfs between about hours 240-384? Do it for s&g's, maybe the most psychopathic progression of systems I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 This may have already been discussed...but did anyone check out the 12z gfs between about hours 240-384? Do it for s&g's, maybe the most psychopathic progression of systems I have ever seen.look up Oct 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 This is becoming burdensome to read. Like a car crash, but I can't help to watch the carnage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Wow. I have a migraine after reading the past couple of pages. Let's get back on track. Plenty of reasons to go normal right now, or equal chances. However, for those who like early calls, I would hedge above normal snowfall by maybe 20 percent, perhaps an average of 48 here ends up like 58-60. I don't believe we will have the same extreme cold outbreaks as last year, and temps may end up near or just below normal with perhaps an emphasis on more snow and cold during the 2nd half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The big take home here is that anyone that is making a definitive forecast either way torch or cold is out to lunch. Equal chances is a solid and reasonable call with all that's on the table. For me I see some record torches with the super warm pool off the SW. Also lots of storms coming out of the stj if that aligns with cold boom. I would say for sure I would like to be in the mountians this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 look up Oct 91 Yes, the perfect storm here, and record setting blizzard over Minnesota and Manitoba. I would say that was a high amplitude pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 MOS has 32 for Boston Monday morning. That would be really impressive if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Then they are no better than NCEP with their equal chances. Grab the weenie and ballz(whole unit) and make a forecast The problem to me is that the signals conflict some so that's exactly what I'd do. Grab the unit and take a wag which is climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Nice to see accumulating snow forecast maps again. Also nice to hear Sunday River opening Monday. https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xta1/v/t1.0-9/12074987_1176550375692800_8531628953831693023_n.png?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=2c0b07bf7300b13920ee33a21101672c&oe=56892D4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 MOS has 32 for Boston Monday morning. That would be really impressive if that happened. SLK 34F Sunday and then 13F Mon AM...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 SLK 34F Sunday and then 13F Mon AM...lol. It wouldn't shock me if normal cold spots up by you and into SNE hit U10s Monday or Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Unfortunately no relief in sight thru the next 7-10 in dry pattern.Hope these calls of wet winter hold true Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 21,112,050View More Statistics Intensity: D0 (Abnormally Dry) D1 (Moderate Drought) D2 (Severe Drought) D3 (Extreme Drought) D4 (Exceptional Drought) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 So PSU E-wall now has daily euro maps going out 10 days? Is this something new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 So PSU E-wall now has daily euro maps going out 10 days? Is this something new? They've had them for at least 2 or 3 years I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Congrats on no more EEE for Bob. FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22|FRI CLIMO N/X 43 67| 37 54| 29 49| 24 51| 23 62| 46 64| 44 66| 42 40 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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