Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Some of it is the strongest Nino thing. Some of it is what goes up , must come down( last winter) . And the mounting negative evidence we keep seeing .. All that just sits badly in my view. I'm glad you all feel so confident on big snows. I do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Some of it is the strongest Nino thing. Some of it is what goes up , must come down( last winter) . And the mounting negative evidence we keep seeing .. All that just sits badly in my view. I'm glad you all feel so confident on big snows. I do not Who in here said they feel confident on big snows? Link us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The general consensus on this board is that this is going to be a good winter. Some think it could be a very good one. I don't have time to link all the posts. Most of the other circles I've seen are not nearly as confident and sine are thinking /calling ratter. I don't know who's going to be right. All I know is I am worried and have a very bad guy feeling. Hopefully I'm dead wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The general consensus on this board is that this is going to be a good winter. Some think it could be a very good one. I don't have time to link all the posts. Most of the other circles I've seen are not nearly as confident and sine are thinking /calling ratter. I don't know who's going to be right. All I know is I am worried and have a very bad guy feeling. Hopefully I'm dead wrong I have seen very little consensus in this forum on how winter is going to be. Maybe a weakish consensus for December being a mild month. Most people haven't issued a winter forecast. We know you are super paranoid...that's fine. It doesn't mean you have to interprete discussion that is not like yours as being supremely confident in a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Euro and GFS push -8C 850s down to LI Monday morning. OKX record is -8.7C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The general consensus on this board is that this is going to be a good winter. Some think it could be a very good one. I don't have time to link all the posts. Most of the other circles I've seen are not nearly as confident and sine are thinking /calling ratter. I don't know who's going to be right. All I know is I am worried and have a very bad guy feeling. Hopefully I'm dead wrong Having a very bad guy feeling is never good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The general consensus on this board is that this is going to be a good winter. Some think it could be a very good one. I don't have time to link all the posts. Most of the other circles I've seen are not nearly as confident and sine are thinking /calling ratter. I don't know who's going to be right. All I know is I am worried and have a very bad guy feeling. Hopefully I'm dead wrong I disagree... I don't think there's any consensus on here yet. Folks seem to be less likely to call for a dead ratter, but likewise aren't calling for a way above normal snow winter. This far out, the best play is not to take an extreme stand so early in the game. Most seem to be leaning toward cimo due to various signals mixing each other out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I disagree... I don't think there's any consensus on here yet. Folks seem to be less likely to call for a dead ratter, but likewise aren't calling for a way above normal snow winter. This far out, the best play is not to take an extreme stand so early in the game. Most seem to be leaning toward cimo due to various signals mixing each other out. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Wed and Thurs next def in the 70's on Euro..Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Wed and Thurs next def in the 70's on Euro..Ughlol...it's mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Please Kevin, no one knows what it's going to be at this point. You called last year a dead rat in January with your nickle and dime idea...nothing could have been further from the final outcome. So you see, nobody knows. You also need to know that it isn't going to stay in the 40's and 50's in October consistantly either...we are going to have warm days still. Are we going to be at 70-90 inches like last year, most likely not!! Just see how things go, and don't fret so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I've heard more than one person here say that, if they had to do it now, they would forecast a close-to-climo winter. Which could also be a way of throwing their hands up at this point in time, which is probably reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Which is it? LOL good catch. I think going climo by default is the "consensus", but who are the posters calling for a blockbuster winter? Going climo to me is pretty much a coin toss, so there really is no consensus for above normal or below normal snow or temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Please Kevin, no one knows what it's going to be at this point. You called last year a dead rat in January with your nickle and dime idea...nothing could have been further from the final outcome. So you see, nobody knows. You also need to know that it isn't going to stay in the 40's and 50's in October consistantly either...we are going to have warm days still. Are we going to be at 70-90 inches like last year, most likely not!! Just see how things go, and don't fret so much. East of river had over 100..Noone is expecting even half that as far as i know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 LOL good catch. I think going climo by default is the "consensus", but who are the posters calling for a blockbuster winter? Going climo to me is pretty much a coin toss, so there really is no consensus for above normal or below normal snow or temps. Then they are no better than NCEP with their equal chances. Grab the weenie and ballz(whole unit) and make a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 lol...it's mid October. Record highs at Hartford are in the low 70s even 3-4 weeks from now in November. He's got a ways to go before we stop seeing 60F+. Even today, the normal high at ORH at 1,000ft is in the low 60s...the record high says 84F for Oct 14 on NowData. Have a couple days near 70F isn't going to be earth shattering. Might not even put up a +10 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 East of river had over 100..Noone is expecting even half that as far as i know Exactly!! So if you had 100 and you took half, your at about Climo for the winter...which isn't bad at all. Worrying and playing the Psych games(with yourself and others) all the time doesn't change a thing. We all know that nobody in SNE is getting 100 plus again this year...I'll go out on a limb and say that now. But half that isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Then they are no better than NCEP with their equal chances. Grab the weenie and ballz(whole unit) and make a forecast Equal chances is basically no signal, which is what Will has been arguing for much of these weenie winter threads. Sometimes a good forecast is near average instead of ratter or blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Equal chances is basically no signal, which is what Will has been arguing for much of these weenie winter threads. Sometimes a good forecast is near average instead of ratter or blockbuster. But it's also a weak way out IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 But it's also a weak way out IMO Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 But it's also a weak way out IMO Right, because a real met would forecast something wrong just to go one extreme or the other. Sometimes the weather isn't extreme, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Why? Forecasting equal chances? If you don't know why that's weak..then perhaps it's time for a self evaluation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 But it's also a weak way out IMO You do know that there are actually winters (and a decent amount at that), that fall within 1 standard deviation of normal? Why is climo a weak way out? Not every winter is a blockbuster or a ratter. Its not like you can only forecast snow amounts of 70"+ or <40". You can forecast 55". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Forecasting equal chances? If you don't know why that's weak..then perhaps it's time for a self evaluation Forecasting equal chances and forecasting climo aren't the same thing. The bell curve is higher in the middle for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Forecasting equal chances and forecasting climo aren't the same thing. The bell curve is higher in the middle for a reason. I'm referring to = chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I'm referring to = chances Sometimes it's actually a coin flip. If you don't understand that, then you probably should just avoid weather forecasting in general since a lot of statistics are involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Sometimes it's actually a coin flip. If you don't understand that, then you probably should just avoid weather forecasting in general since a lot of statistics are involved. NO it is never a coin flip. Anyone who forecasts that way does not deserve to be a met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I'm referring to = chances Why are you doing that? I disagree... I don't think there's any consensus on here yet. Folks seem to be less likely to call for a dead ratter, but likewise aren't calling for a way above normal snow winter. This far out, the best play is not to take an extreme stand so early in the game. Most seem to be leaning toward cimo due to various signals mixing each other out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 NO it is never a coin flip. Anyone who forecasts that way does not deserve to be a met You have no idea what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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