CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 What are some thoughts regarding the rest of this month? I've heard mixed met opinions - trying to distill a solid forecast between models, climatic factors, hunches, etc. Also is there any credence to the long-range model warm bias? When one is new to this, every conclusion one draws seems contrived. Ha. The 11-15 day feature ridging in AK and north of Siberia, lower heights ov er the west coast and a +NAO. This would argue for temps probably at least a little above normal to end the month, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Yeah those SSTs are a bit too warm to support snowfall this time of the year, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Many folks see flakes in SNE Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 It'll be interesting to see if BOS gets a freeze...that would be impressive. ORH should be a lock though. Here are the past 20 years of first freeze dates at ORH: 1995: 10/29 1996: 10/4 1997: 10/22 1998: 11/3 1999: 10/4 2000: 10/10 2001: 10/8 2002: 10/22 2003: 10/19 2004: 11/4 2005: 10/29 2006: 10/22 2007: 10/29 2008: 10/23 2009: 10/15 2010: 10/23 2011: 10/28 2012: 10/12 2013: 10/26 2014: 10/20 Seems like this is an October in October based on that. Most folks see flakes in SNE Sunday morning I get to spend my Sunday in Boston working at a couple admission open houses at the univerrsity. I doubt I'll see any flakes other than what I might pass between Philipston and Lunenburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Many folks see flakes in SNE Sunday morning Maybe Steve will send you pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Maybe Steve will send you pictures.Sorry you chose to live in IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Sorry you chose to live in IJDBut at least I get to watch the planes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Fwiw 97 had an early freeze at BOS. I think it was 10/23 which is 2 weeks early based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Sub 522 thicknesses at BOS Monday morning on 10/19? Dam impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I wonder if he can forecast without CIPS? I'm wondering why the bigger "concern" is winds when we're talking about 35 mph NW gusts. Is that really that strange in CAA? If we're talking HWW type gusts then I see the concern, but those are awfully rare in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Many folks see flakes in SNE Sunday morning New interpretation of conditional? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 That's some solid transitory meteorology between Sunday and next Tuesday. wow. I mentioned this days ago when we were scoping out this cold pattern, that my experience with this sort of the thing in October is that they often end up verifying as shorter lived ... rolling up and out into the Maritimes as fast as they come in. Well, here we are and the models have evolved this cool wave to be precisely that. 00z oper. Euro knocks on the door of 70 F next Tuesday after lows Sunday morning (out of the wind) should be well into the 20s! Pretty spectacular changeability there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 New interpretation of conditional? That is a useless product and map as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 70F on Tue looks a little optimistic...looks like a shallow mixing day like Scoot alluded to earlier. It'll be short lived, but it's an impressive cold shot for this time of year. If anything I'd argue it's trended slightly colder over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 70F on Tue looks a little optimistic...looks like a shallow mixing day like Scoot alluded to earlier. It'll be short lived, but it's an impressive cold shot for this time of year. If anything I'd argue it's trended slightly colder over the past few days. Monday looks chilly now after looking like a small rebound a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Well, looks promising for some snow showers Saturday evening. Will be the first snow showers experienced, but did see some snow off to my north last weekend above about 3000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The GFS advertises one of those Lake Huron connectors along secondary frontal passage, Sunday aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The GFS advertises one of those Lake Huron connectors along secondary frontal passage, Sunday aftn. Sun evening could see flakes if that panned out...by that point, we've certainly advected in very cold air in the boundary layer just aloft that even the coast would probably see some flakes if we got a few decaying streamers picked up by a vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 There's been little doubt for about 2 days now that many folks will at the least see their first flakes of the season this weekend. One or 2 lucky towns could even whiten the grass. Monday looks like one of those days with no wind and inversion where many folks stay in the 40's..Then Tues SW winds crank and right back to AN. Nothing thru day 14 shows anymore cool shots unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 There's been little doubt for about 2 days now that many folks will at the least see their first flakes of the season this weekend. One or 2 lucky towns could even whiten the grass. Monday looks like one of those days with no wind and inversion where many folks stay in the 40's..Then Tues SW winds crank and right back to AN. Nothing thru day 14 shows anymore cool shots unfortunately Did you miss the massive ULL overhead beginning day 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Did you miss the massive ULL overhead beginning day 9? So a day in the 50's and night near 50? ok you win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 So a day in the 50's and night near 50? ok you win Try barely cracking 50 away from the coast and dropping into the upper 30's to near 40 as the ULL moves overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 12z GGEM also shows a cold shot at D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Kev is just scared to death of the el nino, so he is a walking defense mechanism this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Kev is just scared to death of the el nino, so he is a walking defense mechanism this season. Yep like last year with the nickle and dime nonesense when it was becoming apparent we wouldn't achieve big -NAO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Gfs fantasy range shows a perfect storm redox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Kev is just scared to death of the el nino, so he is a walking defense mechanism this season. I don't remember him ever being this paranoid in October... its like if a model doesn't have a huge trough over the northeast with -2 to -3 Standard Deviation H85 temps, its a sign of the massive blowtorch Nino that is supposedly about to happen. He knows in many of the recent winters that the real fun doesn't seem to start till well into January or early February, lol. Got a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I don't remember him ever being this paranoid in October... its like if a model doesn't have a huge trough over the northeast with -2 to -3 Standard Deviation H85 temps, its a sign of the massive blowtorch Nino that is supposedly about to happen. He knows in many of the recent winters that the real fun doesn't seem to start till well into January or early February, lol. Got a long ways to go. He probably thinks the average 850 temps over SNE are like 0C in mid/late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Sun evening could see flakes if that panned out...by that point, we've certainly advected in very cold air in the boundary layer just aloft that even the coast would probably see some flakes if we got a few decaying streamers picked up by a vortmax. Yeah for sure. We'll have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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