Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 This is a large signal, ...not sure how robust it is, in the sense of does it persist in the teleconnectors, or is it just a three day permutation with a lease. But every air-based teleconnector there exists, in tandem, thus argue for a major mass field shift - a redistribution of all nodes of positive and negative geopotential anomalies that in whole describe the R-wave counts and positions. This quick annotation below sums it nicely for those that know what this means: For those that don't ... a modal shift from positive to negative in the EPO and/or NAO at any given time means 'switching from the warm phase to the cool phase,' in plain English. This is also true for the WPO (West Pacific Oscillation), where perhaps more modest than the EPO as depicted above, still ... both major Pacific polarward indices entering those modal shift concurrently argues for [perhaps] an AA phase of the N-Pacific overall. The AA phase correlates positively with the PNA --> + PNAP orientation downstream of N/A (Perennial North-American Pattern; flat ridge west, shallow trough east,thus augmented more steeply) Heights appear to fall periodically ...favoring the negative anomalies, N/NE of HA out in the Pacific - solid correlation for +PNA. Also, ...quite intriguing, though there is no typhoon slated to recurve now, there may be... Many operational runs have been developing TC activity out around 10 W (E of Fiji) and then rapidly drawing it on the classic parabolic trajectory, and absorbing it in positive feeb-back into the above overall Pacific suggestion. Hard to say which favors which with certainty, but it really appears that the hemisphere directs the TC's emergence more than tropical forcing in this case (fascinating).. In any event, this is only moderate confidence overall. Namely, we enter a very stochastic time of year where pattern modeling do not usually give one exceptional aplomb ... nor from their ensembles even - even the teleconnectors, which normally because of their large number-derived solutions tend to be more stable ... changing tempos/appeals more slowly, can be prone to variability. That facet shouldn't be discounted. In paraphrase: cooling and stormy would be favored outcomes for these predictive philosophies and measures. Tentatively ...expect the greatest anomalies relative to climo for NP spreading through the Lakes and western OV regions ... Given to this being the first true, deep break-down of the lingering summer scope across our side of the hemisphere, there is no trend reliance. There's no handle as to how far S and E said negative anomalies would expand, but should do so to some degree given time as the first week of October comes to a close. The smoldering idea no one wants to admit crackles in the whispers of their internal monologues ... is snow. I wouldn't venture at this point.. It's just too darn early. In 2012, there was an alarming signal for a cold pattern in the first week of October (about 10 days from now) that bared fruit for the end of the month. But we are shifted up in the climate year too far for such big shiny balls. I would settle for a coastal or two and bide time. Although ... this pattern should bring grapple and snow to Lake favored regions ... of course, barring discussed variability yo-yoing the entire mass field distribution the other way ... seemingly as though some grand godly conscious merely waited for this discussion posting to deviantly alter the physical system deliberately. ... Paranoia aside ... I'd like to see the CPC numbers. They're late (the above being CDC). I also did not relay at all on any other ensemble clusters; I don't know how the Euro group feels about all this, but my experience is that when the GEFs get argumentative enough, the Euro tends to capitulate ...and vice versa, but perhaps someone may provide those data sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2015 Author Share Posted September 26, 2015 As an afterthought .. We seem to be in an extended climate predicament of exceptionally early cold inserts since 2000... Going on 15 years worth starts to drive one to consider the ...heh hm, on-going known changes in the state of the Global system to put it nicely, as perhaps culpable. Or not, could just be a fantastic night at the craps table... Either way, we have seen snow in the air, and/or even accumulating events during an inordinately large number over Octobers spanning the last decade or more. Having multiple domain spaces apparently converging on a cold signal ... and given to so many of them, the assumption seems safe it would cover a lot of real-estate, heh - might fit with an implied sort of "local spatial-temporal climate regime" So far ... as far as I can tell, they don't really seem to statistically signal much for ensuing cold season. The question comes up often. Don't let 2012 assuage your thinking - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Rocktober...lets do this. New home, new winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 october snows in the coastal plain are usually followed by warm winters with little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 october snows in the coastal plain are usually followed by warm winters with little snow Based on like what, a couple years worth of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Based on like what, a couple years worth of data. I think he is kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Euro is "interesting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Turns for PF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Turns for PF? 42 and graupel showers for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Turns for PF? Nice. I'm heading out of town for 10 days next week into the following week. It's bound to snow on the mountain while I'm gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Rocktober...lets do this. New home, new winter. October 1987 incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 At some point, the pattern has to become a least a little more active in the NE. (a little surprised there has been so little mention of drought by some posters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 It definitely may turn more active. Not sure if the pattern change is MJO driven and it relaxes later in October, but if the models..esp GEFS are right..some good cold shots. Euro ensembles haven't been as aggressive, but you can see how a few cold shots could sneak in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 It definitely may turn more active. Not sure if the pattern change is MJO driven and it relaxes later in October, but if the models..esp GEFS are right..some good cold shots. Euro ensembles haven't been as aggressive, but you can see how a few cold shots could sneak in. I'm thinking more about precipitation in terms of pattern change. It' been dry for a long fooking time now. It's one thing to have a July/August without a lot of rain outside downpours form t-storms, but the last real soaking rain we had in these parts was pretty meh, and there's barely been any other precip for a log time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 I'm thinking more about precipitation in terms of pattern change. It' been dry for a long fooking time now. It's one thing to have a July/August without a lot of rain outside downpours form t-storms, but the last real soaking rain we had in these parts was pretty meh, and there's barely been any other precip for a log time now. We have had so many wet summers. We are due for dry ones. The real dry stretches were in the 60s. I've read about ponds that I know almost drying up. These stretches of dry weather are nothing more than a PITA for watering really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 We have had so many wet summers. We are due for dry ones. The real dry stretches were in the 60s. I've read about ponds that I know almost drying up. These stretches of dry weather are nothing more than a PITA for watering really.soon once again a blip on the screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 We have had so many wet summers. We are due for dry ones. The real dry stretches were in the 60s. I've read about ponds that I know almost drying up. These stretches of dry weather are nothing more than a PITA for watering really. My memory does not include the 60's...(because of my age, not because of the 60's). i hope I'm not channeling a certain poster not that for to my Northwest when I say this is one of the driest summer stretches combined with a dry September that I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 My memory does not include the 60's...(because of my age, not because of the 60's). i hope I'm not channeling a certain poster not that for to my Northwest when I say this is one of the driest summer stretches combined with a dry September that I remember.pretty sure from August 1st to today 2014 was dryer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Rocktober...lets do this. New home, new winter.Not gonna lie.....I loved Oct 2011.....what an eventGranted I was lucky enough to be hooked for generator power for the 8 days I was out but that was an inbelievable event.....I took a stroll in the middle of the noght around the block and the snaps, cracks, and bombs that night were amazing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 GFS keeps hill towns in 40's/low 50's Thursday thru Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Looks like cold Kevin is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 That is a cool, raw 5-10d euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Well its about time this weather has been boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Looks like cold Kevin is here. Yep...time to start pushing Dec climo in fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Yep...time to start pushing Dec climo in fall.Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Just having seasons in seasons is all we want. Hot muggy summers , chilly falls, cold , snowy winters, mild springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 Yep...time to start pushing Dec climo in fall. heh ...yuz guys' bad.. Seriously, we probably shouldn't focus on a particular daily event out there for the time being. Just that the general 'playing field' should offer more like 'balls in play' as opposed to umpires standing around while the networks sequence through their "Clockwork Orange," mind-numbing advertising sequences. Looks like the pattern may actually deliver pitches now. The overnight tele's were really quite impressive with a major-ish dip in the EPO to go along with persistent rise in the PNA, while falls take place in the NAO. In other words ..status quo on the general idea for a much more active pattern. Eventually, if something will come of this .. you'd think the models would start to peg something - agreed. Hell, we may not even be done with the tropical season. We may have a homegrown at some point to deal with here, too. With big high passing N of Main pumping long fetch E into the MA region, there's a lot of in situ instability for either form of storm for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Congrats image.jpg Mitch at 2,200ft in SVT right there. Wet bulb it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Just having seasons in seasons is all we want. Hot muggy summers , chilly falls, cold , snowy winters, mild springs You want seasonal extremes in seasons. Normal seasons are boring . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Coast residents better keep a close eye out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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