IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 True-and maybe that is the beginning..next few weeks will be interesting as we get deeper into fall. We had a nice negative NAO regime that was completely screwed up by Joaquin. I would have loved to see what that ULL would have done without Joaquin in the picture. Now we're back to southeast ridging for the next two weeks. Will be nice to get some above average temps before the shoe drops the third week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 We had a nice negative NAO regime that was completely screwed up by Joaquin. I would have loved to see what that ULL would have done without Joaquin in the picture. Now we're back to southeast ridging for the next two weeks. Will be nice to get some above average temps before the shoe drops the third week of October. Yeah it should be nice, especially tomorrow and Wednesday in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The Euro tries to pull a funny and close off a 500mb low in the trough on Saturday. Would be interesting if the trough dug a bit more and slowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The 00z ECMWF has a widespread inch Friday night and Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 According to Upton, don't even bother looking at other guidance for Fri/Sat THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE SYSTEM FORECAST TOIMPACT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY THE FIRST PART OF THEWEEKEND. BASED ON ITS RECENT STELLAR PERFORMANCE...ITS HISTORICALTRACK RECORD...AND THAT IT HAS BEEN INDICATING A SECONDARY LOWDEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR AT LEAST 4 MODEL CYCLESNOW...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE ECMWF FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 According to Upton, don't even bother looking at other guidance for Fri/Sat THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. BASED ON ITS RECENT STELLAR PERFORMANCE...ITS HISTORICAL TRACK RECORD...AND THAT IT HAS BEEN INDICATING A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR AT LEAST 4 MODEL CYCLES NOW...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE ECMWF FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. Not really surprising that they are leaning towards the Euro after what happened with Joaquin, although relying on one model to always be 100% correct is not smart meteorology. The Euro has gotten progressively more amplified with the trough and has flirted with the idea of closing off some mid-level centers. Early to tell, but this could end up being a significant system for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Not really surprising that they are leaning towards the Euro after what happened with Joaquin, although relying on one model to always be 100% correct is not smart meteorology. The Euro has gotten progressively more amplified with the trough and has flirted with the idea of closing off some mid-level centers. Early to tell, but this could end up being a significant system for the area. 12z GFS and CMC still move it through by Sat AM, CMC is a bit slower, but still looks fairly progressive on both models. 12z Euro up next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The 12z Euro digs all the way to Atlanta now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 12z Euro lost the idea of a slow frontal passage Friday night. It now has a faster passage with just .10"-.25" of rain and nothing after 8pm Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Yikes, more moderate to heavy rain for the Carolinas this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 12z Euro lost the idea of a slow frontal passage Friday night. It now has a faster passage with just .10"-.25" of rain and nothing after 8pm Friday. That's because it digs the trough deeper into the Southeast, so the energy goes further South. It's actually less progressive than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 This is probably just a case of the Euro being dig happy. The strength and amplitude of the trough is such that if the energy is far enough North, it should deliver significant rain to our area. In this case, it closes off a 500mb low down in the Carolinas. Had that occurred further North, it would have been a really wet run for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 FWIW: is that an old map? Heck even the 18z nam is only .25 or .50 at best. Today's Euro was less than .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 No chill this morning (52°): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The frontal passage on Friday with a weekend trough split and piece of energy cutting off over the SE makes sense with the big PNA spike coming up. So we get a nice dry fall weekend and wait and see what happens with the UL over the Southeast for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 In case anyone is wondering, the clouds this morning should clear out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 In case anyone is wondering, the clouds this morning should clear out soon. Already patches of blue showing up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Models drier for Friday. GFS is down to almost nothing. CMC only slightly wetter mainly NYC and south... NAM is .25 or less for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Models drier for Friday. GFS is down to almost nothing. NAM is .25 or less for most. The energy is digging too far southeast in a relatively progressive pattern, pure and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The energy is digging too far southeast in a relatively progressive pattern, pure and simple. Agree. I think it trends even drier to the point where we might see zippo. edit: 12z nam is now 0 to .10 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 And we're back to above average days. Ick. What does the GFS/Euro show until the end of their runs regarding the temps on average? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 And we're back to above average days. Ick. What does the GFS/Euro show until the end of their runs regarding the temps on average? Thanks in advance. and dry again. Lat weekend was a pool of cool in a sea of warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Generally above normal for this time of year after the cooler start to the month. The last Euro weekly update was showing the same thing continuing. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/07/2015 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14 CLIMO X/N 71| 59 67| 59 73| 57 62| 51 69| 56 73| 58 70| 56 67 49 65 Thanks. Not a single below normal day in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Eh, the problem this week is the Atlantic not cooperating. You have a +PNA spike ongoing and a rebounding NAO. Joaquin really disrupted the entire pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Some trees are starting to change after the cold snap we had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Some trees are starting to change after the cold snap we had A FEW HERE, but we're amazing green for Oct 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Definitely waiting for things to pick up with this super Nino that's only getting stronger. It's still early in the month but it shouldn't stay quiet late October/November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 A FEW HERE, but we're amazing green for Oct 7th We are usually 2 weeks behind you, but I'm sure the torch sne had last month delayed everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 With a little luck, we are slowly in the process of turning this ship. The long range models went for a wetter than average SON here. September was below, but the recent rains gave us a wetter start to October. You would expect our storm chances to increase as the STJ comes to life for the remainder of the SON fall period. caprec_anom.1.gif The ULL low over the SW has produced a downstream positively tilted, trough over the Southeast making it difficult for systems dropping in to amplify and round the bend. Despite a rather strong shortwave on Friday, it should go to our South thanks to the relatively progressive flow. There are some signs the ULL off the Carolina coast could interact with another trough dropping through the lakes, but so far we haven't seen anything definitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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