IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Confidence appears to be increasing for a second period of heavy rainfall either on Sunday or Monday after the modeling had initially backed off the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Newark is actually running colder relative to the means than POU which is +0.4 and Newark only 0.0 through 10/26. LGA is actually the coolest spot so far at -0.2. Running a -0.6 departure here after yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Best fall colors in a couple years at mill pond in wantagh. Red maples and sweet gums are on fire. Black gums which turn red super early are getting past peak and will not survive the comming storm. The lack of any real wind and the summer drought and the light freeze we had with the last cold push really did it this year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Running a -0.6 departure here after yesterday. We were one of the few areas of the US to avoid the much above normal temps this month. I guess that we earned a break from the record warm May through September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 We were one of the few areas of the US to avoid the much above normal temps this month. I guess that we earned a break from the record warm May through September. MonthTDeptUS.png Haven't had a below normal October at my station since 2009....with the warmer temps the next 2 days followed by a cool down to end the month, its gonna come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Haven't had a below normal October at my station since 2009....with the warmer temps the next 2 days followed by a cool down to end the month, its gonna come close. NYC should keep the post 2009 above normal October streak going. The last top ten coldest Octobers in NYC were 1988 and 1976. But setting the new October snowfall record in 2011 was more fun than records for October cold. But the following winter left much to be desired. 2015...+0.7 so far 2014...+2.7 2013...+3.3 2012...+1.2 2011...+0.5 2010...+1.5 2009...-1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Sunrise this morning. Enjoying the last of the foliage before tomorrow's massacre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 the 1981-2010 October normal as per noaa is 56.9...The 1981-2010 real monthly average is 57.4...as of today NYC will be averaging 58.3...We should be comparing 2015 to the 1981-2010 monthly average which is 57.4...56.9 is near the long term average since 1870... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Sunrise this morning. Enjoying the last of the foliage before tomorrow's massacre. Quite the frost. Nice pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Great pictures Tom Thanks Tim. Even the red oaks are changing now. Not sure how much will survive tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Running a -0.6 departure here after yesterday. -0.9 here with a mean temperature of 53.9F. Another month in which the suburbs are cooler due to radiational cooling. It's been awhile since I've had three October freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 the 1981-2010 October normal as per noaa is 56.9...The 1981-2010 real monthly average is 57.4...as of today NYC will be averaging 58.3...We should be comparing 2015 to the 1981-2010 monthly average which is 57.4...56.9 is near the long term average since 1870... You have to remember that the annual monthly readings over the 30 year period are sometimes adjusted for quality control after the fact by the NCDC. So their official readings could be slightly different from your originals. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals/1981-2010-normals-data In the strictest sense, a "normal" of a particular variable (e.g., temperature) is defined as the 30-year average. For example, the minimum temperature normal in January for a station in Chicago, Illinois, would be computed by taking the average of the 30 January values of monthly averaged minimum temperatures from 1981 to 2010. Each of the 30 monthly values was in turn derived from averaging the daily observations of minimum temperature for the station. In practice, however, much more goes into NCEI's Climate Normals product than simple 30-year averages. Procedures are put in place to deal with missing and suspect data values. In addition, Climate Normals include quantities other than averages such as degree days, probabilities, standard deviations, etc. Climate Normals are a large suite of data products that provide users with many tools to understand typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 You have to remember that the annual monthly readings over the 30 year period are sometimes adjusted for quality control after the fact by the NCDC. So their official readings could be slightly different from your originals. I'm only adding up the 30 years and dividing by 30...Are those numbers wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I'm only adding up the 30 years and dividing by 30...Are those numbers wrong? They could have been adjusted slightly by the NCDC when coming up with the new official 30 year means. I posted the link above which explains how they do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Sunrise this morning. Enjoying the last of the foliage before tomorrow's massacre. Really beautiful late October morning photo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 They could have been adjusted slightly by the NCDC when coming up with the new official 30 year means. I posted the link above which explains how they do it. if they are adjusted why don't they change the monthly averages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 if they are adjusted why don't they change the monthly averages... They might have in their official number crunching calculations..but I am not sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 They might have in their in house calculations. as a numbers guy I don't buy it but it is what it is...The normal's don't add up to the averages...I've been tracking highs and lows since 1962 and keeping records...I still do it the old fashion way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 as a numbers guy I don't buy it but it is what it is...The normal's don't add up to the averages...I've been tracking highs and lows since 1962 and keeping records...I still do it the old fashion way... How do you that the raw normals that you have haven't been adjusted for quality control? The raw data sometimes has flaws in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 How do you that the raw normals that you have haven't been adjusted for quality control? The raw data sometimes has flaws in it. then why don't they change the monthly average? http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualtemp.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 then why don't they change the monthly average? http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualtemp.pdf Maybe contact someone from the NWS at Upton and ask how the NCDC official 30 year averages differ from the raw monthly values on the OKX homepage. They may have a met there that is their lead on local climate data. I don't know enough about how the NCDC handles the NYC site data. But Upton has the official 30 year averages for NYC on this page which has October at 56.9. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Maybe contact someone from the NWS at Upton and ask how the NCDC official 30 year averages differ from the raw monthly values on the OKX homepage. They may have a met there that is their lead on local climate data. I don't know enough about how the NCDC handles the NYC site data. But Upton has the official 30 year averages for NYC on this page which has October at 56.9. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf that's where I got the 56.9 from...That is supposed to be the 30 year normal...every month is smoothed low...It just isn't the raw numbers they have on their own site...I e mailed them about a mistake in the 6" snowfalls page...They still don't have the 12/23-24/1961 6.2" storm listed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 49f w/ rain .30" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Up to 0.47" of rain for the day at the closest reporting station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Up to 1.00" of rain for day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Park up to 66/63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Yeah I can feel the surge of milder air in the last hour or so, esp the humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Picked up 1.36" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 While the cold shot on the 18-19th was impressive, NYC will keep the October above normal temperature streak since 2010 going. But we avoided the more significant milder departures of 2013 and 2014 as many local sites will finish closer to normal. The major October warmth this year stayed to our west across much of the US. 2015...+0.9 so far 2014...+2.7 2013...+3.3 2012...+1.2 2011...+0.5 2010...+1.5 2009...-1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Hoping for 75 plus today. Going to feel awesome choppin those leaves to bits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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