nzucker Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I wouldn't consider 02-03 and 09-10 back-loaded winters. December 2009 had a HECS from LI southwestward - a colder than normal month - and December 2002 had a significant snowfall the first week, and a significant Christmas event. The common denominator of those two months was a -AO / -NAO in the means. Although the statistical probability of an active Nino December is quite low, it can happen given a conducive northern annular mode and north Atlantic regime.I see what you're saying...the more classic examples are 57-58, 77-78, and 82-83. However, December '09 wasn't so great for those that didn't jackpot in the 12/19 storm...I only had 9.5" that month with around 1" on 12/5 and 8" on 12/19, a slightly above average month but nothing remarkable compared to Feb '10 which had like 48" in Dobbs Ferry...26" on 2/26 alone and also 13" on 2/10. It was different in your area which had more in the 12/19 storm and less in 2/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 some February Blizzards or heavy snows during el nino years... February 1958...near blizzard...8-10" February 1964...Heavy wet snow...7-10" February 1966...Heavy wet snow...6-8" February 1969...Heavy snow...15-20" February 1978...Blizzard...15-20" February 1983...Near Blizzard...18-22" February 1995...Heavy wet snow... February 2003...Near blizzard...15-20" February 2010...Heavy wet snow twice... 1987 had heavy snow just south of the city and 1988 snow changed to rain but was heavy snow 50 miles north and west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 57 midnight high at the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Up to 66 in the park. Another well above average day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I'm surprised at how quickly peak arrived over the past several days - a bit earlier than usual actually. Definitely very close to or at peak around here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Up to 66 in the park. Another well above average day. And 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Isotherm, despite my being further north than you, I think your area's foliage peaked earlier. I think I am 4-5 days away from a peak in Dobbs Ferry...the hillsides are erupting in color, but still a few green stragglers unlike your photo shows. I would guess the difference is due to better radiational cooling in your area. You had two freezes in the last cold shot, whereas my first night was only like 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Isotherm, despite my being further north than you, I think your area's foliage peaked earlier. I think I am 4-5 days away from a peak in Dobbs Ferry...the hillsides are erupting in color, but still a few green stragglers unlike your photo shows. I would guess the difference is due to better radiational cooling in your area. You had two freezes in the last cold shot, whereas my first night was only like 33F. Yeah, I think you're probably right. Two consecutive freezes, with the second night in the middle 20s, was almost record breaking for the third week of October. That's probably what pushed the trees into high gear. We still have the usual lagging red oaks, but I'm surprised that even they are yellowing/browning quite rapidly (and of course, the Bradford pears are in a different category altogether, turning about a week after everything else has peaked). Normally the red oaks show no signs of turning until the very end of October, then quickly brown in the first few days of November. That transient, but very cold period put us ahead of schedule. Hoping to get some more shots with an actual camera (those were all cell phone). Given the look today, it'll probably be past peak by Halloween this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Nice shots Iso. Same thing around here though. Early peak! Wonder if the drought had anything to do with it as well. To be fair I could probably find large areas that are still green (oaks, a lot of the Norway maples) but still, earlier than usual colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 57 midnight high at the park.Today's original first midnight low is going to be blown away by the second midnight.Already down to 59 before 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Early peak here in suffolk as well. About a week early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 With the clouds and early showers yielding to sunshine, the afternoon was a good time to see the fall colors that are now approaching their peak in southern Westchester County. Until late in the afternoon, there was only a light breeze and the mercury soared to a balmy 68°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Great pictures Tom! Just liked we talked about peak has arrived this weekend in middlesex and Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 65 today, 54 now. Looking forward to the rain midweek. Weather has been terribly boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yeah, I think you're probably right. Two consecutive freezes, with the second night in the middle 20s, was almost record breaking for the third week of October. That's probably what pushed the trees into high gear. We still have the usual lagging red oaks, but I'm surprised that even they are yellowing/browning quite rapidly (and of course, the Bradford pears are in a different category altogether, turning about a week after everything else has peaked). Normally the red oaks show no signs of turning until the very end of October, then quickly brown in the first few days of November. That transient, but very cold period put us ahead of schedule. Hoping to get some more shots with an actual camera (those were all cell phone). Given the look today, it'll probably be past peak by Halloween this year. We did get down to 27F on the second night of the cold snap, but the first night here was quite a bit warmer. I notice your area is typically colder on radiational cooling nights than mine. I'm near the top of a 400' hill in a fairly rugged neighborhood to the east of the Hudson that rises quickly from sea level to a top elevation near 450'. There's also a lot of houses and modest development whereas your part of Monmouth is more rural fields and farms, so it radiates better. In snowstorms, my area benefits from elevation and latitude, whereas the opposite is true in radiational cooling set-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Wouldn't surprise me if the colder suburbs saw frost tonight and tomorrow night. Forecast low is 42F here tonight and 38F tomorrow night, and we're already in the upper 40s right now, less than 10 miles from the Bronx border. Drops quickly with fairly dry conditions and clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Down to 52 in the park with two more hours to go for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Great photos, Don. I like how you play on those two trees, one orange and one yellow, in the first few photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Still a few days out,but it looks like the weather for the marathon should be just about perfect. Highs around 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Fairly consistent model consensus for some organized rain during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame and then again towards the end of next week. Average rainfall could exceed 1" basis wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Still a few days out,but it looks like the weather for the marathon should be just about perfect. Highs around 60. Have to watch yet another storm system coming out of Texas towards the end of next week. All models showing some rain in the area next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Fairly consistent model consensus for some organized rain during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame and then again towards the end of next week. Average rainfall could exceed 1" basis wide. We should end the month with around average precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Down to 52 in the park with two more hours to go for the day. 48 before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 30's across most of the NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Have to watch yet another storm system coming out of Texas towards the end of next week. All models showing some rain in the area next weekend. The marathon is this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The marathon is this weekend. As in this coming weekend correct? Models are showing rain in the area on Sunday 11/1 and possibly also on 10/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 30's across most of the NW suburbs. 32 here this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 38° this morning. Looks like a couple more cooler days before Wednesday and Thursday warm up a little. Might see mid 60s on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 November is going to start warm se ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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