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Ghosts, Ghouls, Pumpkins, Autumn Chill?: October 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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Absolutly. They can handle a freeze that's why they are known as a fall plant. I have seen them still going well in to December some years.

Another funny observation today is people dressed winter coats and scarfs. I'm wearing shorts T-shirt flip flops in the city right now and perfect

Yep, my mums suffered temps in the low 20's but are still going strong.  And totally agree on what people are wearing out there...its October out there, you better bundle up...idiots. 

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Absolutly. They can handle a freeze that's why they are known as a fall plant. I have seen them still going well in to December some years.

Another funny observation today is people dressed winter coats and scarfs. I'm wearing shorts T-shirt flip flops in the city right now and perfect

We got down to 28 two nights in a row...definitely had a hand in it. Unlike the past few years the growing season ended much earlier in my area this year.

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Cutter nation next week?

 

It's good to see the Euro take whats left of Patricia from the EPAC right up across the Great Lakes.

Hopefully, the El Nino direct tropical feed to the east can bring us some much needed convection.

SST's in the source region are off the charts.

 

 

 

 

 

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I feel like once we have a cold spell, the people never want to go back to summer gear even if it gets up to 80°. Never understood that.

 

I agree, but I think its that ppl don't have faith in warm weather that you have in summer. It might be 80 but it can flip on you and be 50 and windy too. That's not possible in July. Plus NYC is the rare case when the majority of ppl dont own cars, so ppl dont want to be stuck at a bus stop or walking several blocks and freezing. Once I got a car I noticed I took more risks in terms of dressing for the weather. I find more people are dressing for the early morning commute or night conditions than for mid day weather when they are probably stuck in an office anyway.

 

 

I have to admit i did see some people looking absurd with some warm coat in the mid 70s.

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I agree, but I think its that ppl don't have faith in warm weather that you have in summer. It might be 80 but it can flip on you and be 50 and windy too. That's not possible in July. Plus NYC is the rare case when the majority of ppl dont own cars, so ppl dont want to be stuck at a bus stop or walking several blocks and freezing. Once I got a car I noticed I took more risks in terms of dressing for the weather. I find more people are dressing for the early morning commute or night conditions than for mid day weather when they are probably stuck in an office anyway.

 

 

I have to admit i did see some people looking absurd with some warm coat in the mid 70s.

Yep, that's very very true. People dress for the 45° mornings (around here) and then when it goes up to 77° like Wednesday, they don't bother to change. I had a sweatshirt on with a t shirt under it so at least I could take that off. I guess everyone realizes winter is coming. But, on the flip side of the seasons, I've actually seen people keep winter clothing on after a harsh winter like last year when we start getting Spring like temps.

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http://www.iloveny.com/seasons/fall/foliage-report/#.VilaQPmrTIU

All of NY state is near to past peak now except the 5 boros still mostly green.

Looking nice driving north today.

According to ISO (in a NE thread) he has had 0% leaf drop. That's amazing considering the pond by my house is blazing full peak!!! Red maples, sweet gums, black gums all fully out. Oaks are starting to show

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According to ISO (in a NE thread) he has had 0% leaf drop. That's amazing considering the pond by my house is blazing full peak!!! Red maples, sweet gums, black gums all fully out. Oaks are starting to show

A hour south of him and foliage is near peak also with a good amount of leaves on the ground...does not make sense that yanksfan still has green trees

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A hour south of him and foliage is near peak also with a good amount of leaves on the ground...does not make sense that yanksfan still has green trees

I still have a lot of green as well. Even the one's that changed colors haven't dropped much. Definitely not peak for atleast another week.

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The Euro/ GFS/ UKMET agree on us eventually seeing the remnants of Patricia next week.

Looks like we are moving into the early stages of the drought eventually getting erased

by the El Nino during the cold season.The last time an El Nino broke a drought

for us was 02-03 which was a much weaker event.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

 

attachicon.gif20151020_northeast_none.png

That drought buster started much earlier however, right around Labor Day of 2002 with the start of a bunch of nor'easters.  I'm very surprised how late we've gone this year with a continuation of the mid and late summer pattern.

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That drought buster started much earlier however, right around Labor Day of 2002 with the start of a bunch of nor'easters.  I'm very surprised how late we've gone this year with a continuation of the mid and late summer pattern.

 

The endless summer ridge right on top of us from May through September was very impressive for the combination of

warm and dry. But we are seeing the first signs of the Nino trough taking shape over the Southeast this month

as the STJ becomes more active.

 

 

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An in the middle departure so far for NYC in October compared to the rest of the 2000's.

 

2015...+1.0 so far

2014...+2.7

2013...+3.3

2012...+1.2

2011...+0.5

2010...+1.5

2009...-1.6

2008...-1.9

2007...+7.0

2006...-0.3

2005..+1.3

2004...-0.6

2003...-1.5

2002...-1.4

2001...+1.0

2000...-0.5

 

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The endless summer ridge right on top of us from May through September was very impressive for the combination of

warm and dry. But we are seeing the first signs of the Nino trough taking shape over the Southeast this month

as the STJ becomes more active.

 

attachicon.gifA.gif

 

attachicon.gifB.gif

Playing devil's advocate here. Not surprisingly, this October so far, doesn't look good for Greenland blocking for DJF average.

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