IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Aside from a few cold shots the next week looks rather benign. Can't rule out a few stray flakes on Sunday but I wouldn't bet the house on it. I wish I could say that long range guidance was showing some type of flip to a more exciting pattern but it just looks like trough, ridge, front, wash and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I was just using KNYC as that seems to be the debating point getting closer to the colder months. Ewr will radiate better now at night then Knyc going forward. If people think Mild spells and 70's are over you should think again I think OCT ends up N . The last 10 days look AN and that could erase the BN we see over the next 5 days , 850s and 2M anomalies look N to slightly above , so N for OCT looks good to me from here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I was just using KNYC as that seems to be the debating point getting closer to the colder months. Ewr will radiate better now at night then Knyc going forward. If people think Mild spells and 70's are over you should think again Oh it's definitely not over, I think 70° is reachable next week for NYC. The cold shots worst is really Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Tomorrow and Friday don't look that bad, and Tuesday on should begin a little warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Oh it's definitely not over, I think 70° is reachable next week for NYC. The cold shots worst is really Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Tomorrow and Friday don't look that bad, and Tuesday on should begin a little warmup. Im more excited to see the first legit cold shot of the fall season, obv by Thanksgiving we should stop seeing temps near 70 with mild spells. Until then it will be very changeable I'm a bit confused why snoski and brian6969 seem like warm temps should be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Im more excited to see the first legit cold shot of the fall season, obv by Thanksgiving we should stop seeing temps near 70 with mild spells. Until then it will be very changeable I'm a bit confused why snoski and brian6969 seem like warm temps should be over Yeah, it's amazing the swings in temperatures we've been having. But yeah, November should bring in the more consistent 30 degree nights, even 20s in the rurals. In all honesty, I could go without this cold shot. It's not worth freezing for 3 days only to warm back up, especially since the heat isn't on yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Yeah, it's amazing the swings in temperatures we've been having. But yeah, November should bring in the more consistent 30 degree nights, even 20s in the rurals. In all honesty, I could go without this cold shot. It's not worth freezing for 3 days only to warm back up, especially since the heat isn't on yet temp swings are normal this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Im more excited to see the first legit cold shot of the fall season, obv by Thanksgiving we should stop seeing temps near 70 with mild spells. Until then it will be very changeable I'm a bit confused why snoski and brian6969 seem like warm temps should be over I wouldn't say obviously to anything. I remember that week in December growing up when it was solidly in the 70s. With that mega warm pool off the Sw coast I could easily see that repeating this year. Do I want that F no but it cannot be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 Flakes for NW sections Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 EWR , JFK and LGA are .05 above , this all gets erased by Monday , so the 1st 20 days in many spots will be at or BN .For whatever the reason, Central Parks departures have been running warmer than other urban stations for the last several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 For whatever the reason, Central Parks departures have been running warmer than other urban stations for the last several months. My guess is the vegetation which cools afternoon highs in the summer also contributes to less effective radiational cooling at night. Once the trees go bare in a few weeks, overnight lows will probably be a bit cooler relative to their radiating ability in the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 For whatever the reason, Central Parks departures have been running warmer than other urban stations for the last several months. The drought pattern helped the readings in Central Park run closer to the reality of what Midtown temps were. I can remember as a kid listening to NOAA weather radio hourly temperature updates during hot days. Many times in the 70's and 80's the Park was warmer than EWR and LGA before the new ASOS was installed and the foliage expanded over the site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 temp swings are normal this time of year Yeah I know, just noting that I've gone from 30s to 70s in a matter of a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I understand the two above responses but the significance of the difference in the departures makes me wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I wouldn't say obviously to anything. I remember that week in December growing up when it was solidly in the 70s. With that mega warm pool off the Sw coast I could easily see that repeating this year. Do I want that F no but it cannot be denied My post was more referring to the fact that mild spells and 70's are more common in October and November, obviously we can get a torch day or two in December. Just that its more uncommon to see those crazy swings after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Im more excited to see the first legit cold shot of the fall season, obv by Thanksgiving we should stop seeing temps near 70 with mild spells. Until then it will be very changeable I'm a bit confused why snoski and brian6969 seem like warm temps should be over Where did I say that? Quite the contrary, I see plenty of opportunity for warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 My post was more referring to the fact that mild spells and 70's are more common in October and November, obviously we can get a torch day or two in December. Just that its more uncommon to see those crazy swings after Thanksgiving. gotcha. Quote me now though we hit 70 this December at some point. All it will take is pac zonal flow and some sunshine. That warm pool scares but also excites me. It's going to electrify the sub trop jet and if we can align cold with an amped system and its really game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 This evolution in the long-range GFS is very similar to the Perfect Storm of late October 1991. Kind of interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 0z GFS has snow showers for the interior and some flakes near the coast this weekend. It would sure be a nice sight to see =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Monticello and Westhampton entered the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 0z GFS has snow showers for the interior and some flakes near the coast this weekend. It would sure be a nice sight to see =)Always nice to see flakes around I ; would like to see a consisent temperature range 55-60 day 35-45 night ...for this temperature range (NYC) will most likely have to wait another 3-4 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The forecast soundings look convective for later Sunday when the upper disturbance moves through. It's possible that a heavy enough precipitation burst could dewpoint down the temps for some wet flakes to mix in especially interior. But we'll see if the coast can cool enough for some wet flakes to mix in. Either way, NYC is on track for the first morning lows in the 30's of the season. gfsNE_con_lapse57_093.gif Yeh the GFS thinks that could cool enough to maybe mix in some flakes in from west to east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Westhampton is down to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Westhampton is down to 36. 35 is the low. Will it fall into the teens next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Looks more like graupel possibly mixed on the NYC soundings for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 There is nothing specific showing up on the guidance currently but the day 9-14 period needs to be watched with potential Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic Tropical development and a fairly potent trough building into the East around the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 A trough would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 522dam thickness on GFS...pretty chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 GFS MOS is quick turnaround with NYC 30's Sunday and Monday morning and 70 again by Wednesday. The strong CAA later Sunday into Monday may undercut the MOS min for Monday morning. 12z GFS holds with instability precip late Sunday into the evening. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/15/2015 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22|FRI CLIMO N/X 51 65| 45 53| 39 49| 37 50| 44 60| 55 70| 55 66| 53 47 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 many October's from the past had temperatures in the 30's one day and 70's a few days later...1964 was near a record with 33 degrees the morning of the 24th and then a record tying 78 on the 26th...1974 had three days in a row 32 or lower this time of the month...I thought a cold winter was on the way...November 1st was 81 degrees...cold winter canceled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 many October's from the past had temperatures in the 30's one day and 70's a few days later...1964 was near a record with 33 degrees the morning of the 24th and then a record tying 78 on the 26th...1974 had three days in a row 32 or lower this time of the month...I thought a cold winter was on the way...November 1st was 81 degrees...cold winter canceled... October 2012 and 2009 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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