Morris Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 FOK hit 34 degrees, 19 degrees cooler than NYC. Yet, at 9 am it was a degree warmer than NYC already. And 5 degrees warmer at 10 am. Insane. At 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 And 5 degrees warmer at 10 am. Insane. At 62.It's all about radiating well , Take central and southern nj , same thing they radiate very well on calm nights they also has temps in the mid 30s this morning ,Lakewood nj for example was around 40. it's at the edge of the pine barrens , sandy soils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 41 in nw suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Fall color's actually increasingly fairly rapidly in CNJ. I'd say we're moderate color at this point. The oaks are still mostly/completely green, but much of the maples are showing significant color already. Nights in the 40s and more cool shots in the D5-10 period should keep us on track for an on-schedule peak, sometime near the end of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 What temperatures does Frost occur between, like 33°-37°? Also, I've wondered, can frost occur if it's partly cloudy, or does it have to be crystal clear? Starting to see a lot of colors pop up now, especially at the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Fall color's actually increasingly fairly rapidly in CNJ. I'd say we're moderate color at this point. The oaks are still mostly/completely green, but much of the maples are showing significant color already. Nights in the 40s and more cool shots in the D5-10 period should keep us on track for an on-schedule peak, sometime near the end of October. Fall color increasing near Watchung also. The weather has been near perfect for it. Warm and dry days with cool nights. Still a bit more green in scotch plains than it is once you cross 22 and head up into the hills tho. Always a fun time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Went apple picking in North Salem yesterday and saw some great colors near the Westchester-Putnam border. Definitely not peak but another 7-10 days should do it. Picked 100 apples, made some delicious homemade applesauce using a food mill. Also bought a bunch of different squashes. Harvested a decent amount of arugula from my garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 What temperatures does Frost occur between, like 33°-37°? Also, I've wondered, can frost occur if it's partly cloudy, or does it have to be crystal clear? Starting to see a lot of colors pop up now, especially at the higher elevations. From what I know, it would have to be just above freezing 33 up to 40 in general. And yes it should be mostly clear to clear skies with light and variable winds for the frost to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Any update on the next weekend from the latest models? Still same idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 From what I know, it would have to be just above freezing 33 up to 40 in general. And yes it should be mostly clear to clear skies with light and variable winds for the frost to occur. Alright, makes sense to have clear skies so all the heat could escape. My low was 40° last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Awesome day In the park with the shirt off getting some final rays...70 the high and a real symmery day coming up tomorrow maybe some upper 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 NYC and LGA had the same surface temps that BNL had at 50 m. Screen shot 2015-10-11 at 8.30.08 AM.png The low was 34.9 F at BNL. The 50 m temp has precious little significance in this situation...even for comparative purposes with stations inside the ambit of the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 I was playing around with my camera when this Monarch showed up. He stayed around for over an hour going from flower to flower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 The STJ is forecast to become more active in the day 6-10 day period with the very strong developing El Nino. Probably plenty of Pacific energy undercutting the -EPO ridge as a fast split flow develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 The STJ is forecast to become more active in the day 6-10 day period with the very strong developing El Nino. Probably plenty of Pacific energy undercutting the -EPO ridge as a fast split flow develops. gfsNA_250_spd_225.gif Hey! I'm new. What's this mean forecast-wise? (Starting to learn to read models and data instead of mindlessly refreshing weather sites...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Minus a couple days temperatures look to either be AOA normal for the next couple weeks. 06z gfs looked quite warm with a general lack of cold air for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I think it's going to be average for the next couple weeks with the temperature just by going off the pna (+) and the ao (-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Hey! I'm new. What's this mean forecast-wise? (Starting to learn to read models and data instead of mindlessly refreshing weather sites...) Welcome to the board. First, the -EPO ridge will result in a cooler fall pattern later this week through the weekend. After that the fast jet stream flow will probably mean frontal passages and or lows every 4 days or so. Ahead of the fronts the temps will warm and cool behind the fronts making for a changeable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Through 10/11 NYC: +0.0 EWR: -0.5 LGA: -1.1 JFK: -0.4 TTN: +0.4 PHL: -0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Through 10/11 NYC: +0.0 EWR: -0.5 LGA: -1.1 JFK: -0.4 TTN: +0.4 PHL: -0.1 Like the average October. Some average days, some below average days and some above average days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Liking this weekends cold shot potential...backward trajectories are from the Arctic for the first time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Most of the modeling is pretty cold for next weekend. The 06z GFS has the first freeze for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 The GFS MOS and the Euro 2m t's are close to 40 for Sunday morning in NYC which would be around a -10 minimum departure. We'll see if some upper 30's can sneak in as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I'll be more excited about the cool shot as we get closer. I'm always wary of extreme temps being progged (especially cold extremes) at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I'll be more excited about the cool shot as we get closer. I'm always wary of extreme temps being progged (especially cold extremes) at this range. On average, we tend to see our first intrusion of 0c 850mb air around the middle of October, and this usually coincides with the first 32F readings for suburbia. It's not terribly extreme as progged, and it makes sense meteorologically given the upstream mid level ridge spike. The EPO should be plummeting to near -3 standard deviations while concurrently, the PNA rises to around +3 standard deviations. This signifies a fairly anomalous / meridional jet in western Canada, and thus the corresponding downstream dip must occur to compensate. The cool shot for next weekend is reasonably high confidence at this juncture. The magnitude may change somewhat, but I think the idea of a transient / strong cool down is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Beautiful weekend in Delaware County. Leaves are peaking in eastern part of the county, and a bit past peak in the central part of the county, where these were taken. If you want to peep, still need to go to higher elevations. The Hudson Valley, via the Thruway, was largely green up to at least Kingston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Here in the New Paltz area we're probably a few days behind - next weekend should be full tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Park and LGA up to 75, Newark up to 77. JFK still at 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Still not much in the way of nice foliage out my way. Mostly browning and then dropping. A lot dropped last week the few days it was on the windy side. I wished the foliage season lasted longer. I go from peak to bare trees in like 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Up to 80 in Bed Stuy. The Forkast scores another one. more chances to pad the 80 degree count on friday and monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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