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Ghosts, Ghouls, Pumpkins, Autumn Chill?: October 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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And 5 degrees warmer at 10 am. Insane. At 62.

It's all about radiating well , Take central and southern nj , same thing they radiate very well on calm nights they also has temps in the mid 30s this morning ,Lakewood nj for example was around 40. it's at the edge of the pine barrens , sandy soils.

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Fall color's actually increasingly fairly rapidly in CNJ. I'd say we're moderate color at this point. The oaks are still mostly/completely green, but much of the maples are showing significant color already. Nights in the 40s and more cool shots in the D5-10 period should keep us on track for an on-schedule peak, sometime near the end of October.

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Fall color's actually increasingly fairly rapidly in CNJ. I'd say we're moderate color at this point. The oaks are still mostly/completely green, but much of the maples are showing significant color already. Nights in the 40s and more cool shots in the D5-10 period should keep us on track for an on-schedule peak, sometime near the end of October.

Fall color increasing near Watchung also. The weather has been near perfect for it. Warm and dry days with cool nights. Still a bit more green in scotch plains than it is once you cross 22 and head up into the hills tho. Always a fun time of year.

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Went apple picking in North Salem yesterday and saw some great colors near the Westchester-Putnam border. Definitely not peak but another 7-10 days should do it.

Picked 100 apples, made some delicious homemade applesauce using a food mill. Also bought a bunch of different squashes. Harvested a decent amount of arugula from my garden.

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What temperatures does Frost occur between, like 33°-37°? Also, I've wondered, can frost occur if it's partly cloudy, or does it have to be crystal clear?

Starting to see a lot of colors pop up now, especially at the higher elevations.

From what I know, it would have to be just above freezing 33 up to 40 in general. And yes it should be mostly clear to clear skies with light and variable winds for the frost to occur.
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From what I know, it would have to be just above freezing 33 up to 40 in general. And yes it should be mostly clear to clear skies with light and variable winds for the frost to occur.

Alright, makes sense to have clear skies so all the heat could escape. My low was 40° last night.

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The STJ is forecast to become more active in the day 6-10 day period with the very strong

developing El Nino. Probably plenty of Pacific energy undercutting the -EPO ridge as 

a fast split flow develops. 

 

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Hey! I'm new. What's this mean forecast-wise? (Starting to learn to read models and data instead of mindlessly refreshing weather sites...)

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Hey! I'm new. What's this mean forecast-wise? (Starting to learn to read models and data instead of mindlessly refreshing weather sites...)

 

Welcome to the board. First, the -EPO ridge will result in a cooler fall pattern later this week through the weekend.

After that the fast jet stream flow will probably mean frontal passages and or lows every 4 days or so. Ahead of the

fronts the temps will warm and cool behind the fronts making for a changeable pattern.

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I'll be more excited about the cool shot as we get closer. I'm always wary of extreme temps being progged (especially cold extremes) at this range.

 

 

On average, we tend to see our first intrusion of 0c 850mb air around the middle of October, and this usually coincides with the first 32F readings for suburbia. It's not terribly extreme as progged, and it makes sense meteorologically given the upstream mid level ridge spike. The EPO should be plummeting to near -3 standard deviations while concurrently, the PNA rises to around +3 standard deviations. This signifies a fairly anomalous / meridional jet in western Canada, and thus the corresponding downstream dip must occur to compensate. The cool shot for next weekend is reasonably high confidence at this juncture. The magnitude may change somewhat, but I think the idea of a transient / strong cool down is likely.

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