UnionWeatherWx Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Multiple rain chances to begin October. Drought Cancel? Edit: Let's not try to clog the 25-27th thread with model runs for October, post and discuss them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 My guess is that we see a clash of the titans pattern setting up for October between the -EPO ridge and the Aleutian Low. That -EPO building toward the pole has been the dominant October pattern since 2002. But this year we have a much stronger El Nino than the previous October El Ninos of the 2000's. So the Aleutian Low may try to push east closer to the West Coast of NOAM than has typically been the case. The interplay between the two features will determine our sensible weather here. Could be a volatile month...we'll see... Classic October 2002-2013 500 mb El Nino response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 My guess is that we see a clash of the titans pattern setting up for October between the -EPO ridge and the Aleutian Low. That -EPO building toward the pole has been the dominant October pattern since 2002. But this year we have a much stronger El Nino than the previous October El Ninos of the 2000's. So the Aleutian Low may try to push east closer to the West Coast of NOAM than has typically been the case. The interplay between the two features will determine our sensible weather here. Could be a volatile month...we'll see... Classic October 2002-2013 500 mb El Nino response 500.gif Starting around day 12 thru 15 which gets us out to around the 8th , you can start to see the Europeans 500 mb look one would want to see if you believe in the oct/winter correlation. Deep NEG south of the Aleutians with the ridge to the west of Hudson bay. Will be curious to see if the shift continues to show up as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Starting around day 12 thru 15 which gets us out to around the 8th , you can start to see the Europeans 500 mb look one would want to see if you believe in the oct/winter correlation. Deep NEG south of the Aleutians with the ridge to the west of Hudson bay. Will be curious to see if the shift continues to show up as we get closer. Yeah, it will be interesting to see where the Euro ensembles place the Aleutian Low once we see the forecasts later in the week. The one thing that the ensembles agree on to start the month is a strong -EPO which has been typical for El Ninos since 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Yeah, it will be interesting to see where the Euro ensembles place the Aleutian Low once we see the forecasts later in the week. The once thing that the ensembles agree on to start the month is a strong -EPO which has been typical for El Ninos since 2002. 4panel.png Yep and it has some company , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 NYC October records for reference... decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6...........................................3.55"1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17"1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59"1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39"1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41"1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22"1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42"1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45"1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88"1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01"1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85"2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23"2010's.....58.6.......60.2....57.1......80.0...38.6......86...33......4.01"1870---2009.......57.0..............................80.0...36.8......................3.66"1980---2009.......57.2..............................78.9...38.0......................4.36"Warmest...63.6 in 194763.6 in 200763.1 in 194962.7 in 197161.9 in 1990Coolest...48.6 in 188849.7 in 188950.6 in 192550.6 in 187650.9 in 1869wettest"...16.73 in 200513.31 in 190312.97 in 191309.00 in 192708.63 in 1983driest...0.14 in 19630.28 in 19240.43 in 18790.59 in 18920.66 in 20010.66 in 1909Snowiest"...2.9 in 20110.8 in 19250.5 in 18760.5 in 1952Hottest max..94 in 1941 10/591 in 1939 10/1090 in 1927 10/290 in 1941 10/690 in 1938 10/1789 in 1922 10/5Coolest monthly max...66 in 188870 in 189470 in 189570 in 197771 in 1981Coldest min...28 in 1936 10/2729 in 1879 10/2529 in 1976 10/2729 in 1976 10/2829 in 1925 10/3129 in 1887 10/31warmest monthly min...45 in 194645 in 197144 in 200443 in 199443 in 1927Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower...1876...321879...291887...291889...321904...321917...321925...291928...321933...321936...281940...301965...321969...311972...321974...311975...311976...291988...31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 October 2nd Nor'easter? According to Forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 October 2nd Nor'easter? According to Forky Certainly looks that way, both the GFS and Euro have it with ensemble support as Forky mentioned in the September thread. Not in fantasy range either which is nice to see. Could be the beginning of the nor'easter floodgates opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Both the gfs and euro are very wet next week and below avg as the pattern attempts to flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Massive flip in the teleconnections for the 1st week of October, something Tip stated in the NE forum. This could be end up being a very interesting period now with both gfs and euro in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Down to 59 in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Low of 56 in the park. You can't pay it to be below average. Although the high should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Chilly start to October. I say we're possibly done with CDDs and 80s until next April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This weather is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastKU Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I agree. Usually when I go apple/pumpkin picking in early October it is rather warm but this year should be a delight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Amazing fall feel outside right now..love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Will we see a run at 80 degrees again after this garbage moves out..lets talk long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Will we see a run at 80 degrees again after this garbage moves out..lets talk long range don't take the ac out of the window yet...80 degrees in October is normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Will we see a run at 80 degrees again after this garbage moves out..lets talk long range It's a big fat NO from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's a big fat NO from the GFS. What are the temps? Seasonal? Above? Below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What are the temps? Seasonal? Above? Below? Temps stay below to seasonal until the end of next week where the warmest it gets is the mid 70s before another cool blast comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Temps stay below to seasonal until the end of next week where the warmest it gets is the mid 70s before another cool blast comes in. Thanks. Starting to rain here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Real fall weather and waves out the wazoooo I love it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 2 days of BN weather, and we are already claiming 80's to be done... Let's not rush winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Frost potential next week away from the urban areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Frost potential next week away from the urban areas Right around the average first frost for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Frost potential next week away from the urban areas I think it's overdone by the models again, unless you're talking way out like near the Catskills or something. Could see some 70s next week around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 62F. Rain seems to be moving in from the S/SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 sprinkles here. NAM didn't really initialize with the current radar so looks like we'll all get some rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Light rain. 62 F. Feels quiet nice outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.