Roger Smith Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 Final scoring for October 2015 Scores are based on the final end of month anomalies posted above in post 27. FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___ clas ___ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ exp'd ______ TOTAL Damage in Tolland ______ 50 __ 96 __ 82 ___ 230 ____100__ 82 __ 96 ____ 278 ______ 508 ksammut ______________ 94 __ 78 __ 98 ___ 270 ____ 56 __ 86 __ 96 ____ 238 ______ 508 hudsonvalley21 _________66 __ 98 __ 82 ___ 246 ____ 72 __ 86 __ 86 ____ 244 ______ 490 Isotherm _______________74 __ 96 __ 70 ___ 240 ____ 74 __ 94 __ 76 ____ 244 ______ 484 Stebo _________________78 __ 92 __ 80 ___ 250 ____ 86 __ 68 __ 80 ____ 234 ______ 484 blazess556 _____________70 __ 90 __ 96 ___ 256 ____ 64 __ 88 __ 74 ____ 226 ______ 482 BKViking _______________64 __ 98 __ 82 ___ 244 ____ 72 __ 92 __ 90 ____ 254 _ 498 ___________ (-5%) ______ 61 __ 93 __ 78 ___ 232 ____ 68 __ 87 __ 86 ____ 241 ______ 473 Donsutherland.1 _________62 __ 86 __ 74 ___ 222 ____ 72 __ 96 __ 80 ____ 248 ______ 470 .. Consensus _____________ 58 __ 98 __ 80 ___ 236 ____ 64 __ 94 __ 76 ____ 234 ______ 470 .. .. Normal ________________ 88 __ 78 __100 ___ 266 ____ 56 __ 84 __ 64 ____ 204 ______ 470 .. SD ____________________58 __ 92 __ 80 ___ 230 ____ 56 __ 96 __ 84 ____ 236 ______ 466 Maxim _________________ 58 __ 92 __ 60 ___ 210 ____ 96 __ 84 __ 74 ____ 254 ______ 464 Mallow _________________56 __100__ 86 ___ 242 ____ 50 __ 96 __ 72 ____ 218 ______ 460 wxallannj _______________ 58 __ 88 __ 70 ___ 216 ____ 64 __ 78 __ 82 ____ 224 ______ 440 Midlo Snow Maker ________42 __ 78 __ 58 ___ 178 ____ 84 __ 98 __ 78 ____ 260 ______ 438 RodneyS _______________ 78 __ 86 __ 72 ___ 236 ____ 50 __ 98 __ 44 ____ 192 ______ 428 Rjay ___________________ 48 __ 82 __ 70 ___ 200 ____ 36 __ 96 __ 94 ____ 226 ______ 426 Tom ___________________ 72 __ 74 __ 94 ___ 240 ____ 44 __ 82 __ 58 ____ 184 ______ 424 Tenman Johnson _________ 98 __ 78 __ 90 ___ 266 ____ 26 __ 74 __ 50 ____ 150 ______ 416 dmillz25 _________________48 __ 88 __ 80 ___ 216 ____ 36 __ 86 __ 74 ____ 196 ______ 412 Roger Smith _____________ 48 __ 78 __ 50 ___ 176 ____ 70 __ 90 __ 74 ____ 234 ______ 410 wxdude64 _______________ 56 __ 92 __ 82 ___ 230 ____ 16 __ 72 __ 36 ____ 124 ______ 354 E Pluribus Unum __________58 __ 86 __ 72 ___ 216 ____ 26 __ 66 __ 42 ____ 134 ______ 350 Final scores for western contest October 2015 FORECASTER ___________ DEN__PHX__SEA _____ TOTAL Roger Smith _____________ 54 __ 94 __ 78 ______ 226 Damage in Tolland ________ 60 __ 96 __ 50 ______ 206 Isotherm _________________42 __ 90 __ 60 ______ 192 wxallannj ________________ 30 __ 92 __ 60 ______ 182 Midlo Snow Maker _________32 __ 90 __ 52 ______ 174 Donsutherland.1 __________ 34 __ 82 __ 68 ______ 174 Maxim __________________ 40 __ 86 __ 42 ______ 168 RodneyS ________________ 34 __ 48 __ 82 ______ 164 ksammut ________________ 04 __ 82 __ 72 ______ 158 .. Consensus ______________ 22 __ 74 __ 46 ______ 142 .. Mallow __________________22 __ 62 __ 56 ______ 140 BKViking ________________ 20 __ 88 __ 38 _ 146 _________ (-5%) _________ 19 __ 84 __ 36 ______ 139 SD _____________________14 __ 76 __ 42 ______ 132 wxdude64 _______________ 00 __ 62 __ 52 ______ 114 E Pluribus Unum __________ 00 __ 70 __ 22 ______ 092 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 06 __ 58 __ 26 ______ 090 .. Normal __________________ 00 __ 46 __ 12 ______ 058 .. dmillz25 _________________ 00 __ 56 __ 00 ______ 056 Rjay ____________________ 00 __ 46 __ 02 ______ 048 Tom ____________________ 00 __ 42 __ 00 ______ 042 blazess556 _______________00 __ 40 __ 00 ______ 040 Stebo ___________________ 00 __ 14 __ 00 ______ 014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 <<<<<< ==== updated ANNUAL SCORING FOR 2015, JAN-OCT ==== >>>>>> ... For best viewing, set to 100% to prevent line overflow ... provisional June scoring in post 34 FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__Classic__ORD_ATL_IAH__Expanded__TOTAL__Best scores and months Isotherm ____________647_585_586__1818___694_626_746__2066__3884_ Damage in Tolland ____743_571_583__1897___648_688_592__1928__3825_ 200 102_1_2__OCT .. Consensus __________659_497_529__1685___704_687_728__2119__3804 .. DonSutherland.1 _____ 653_505_543__1701___703_587_722__2012__3713_ 101 001_1_1__MAR,JUL ksammut ____________616_569_657__1842___615_515_728__1858__3700_ 002 302_3_0__SEP,OCT BKViking ___________ 593_474_546__1613___639_705_684__2028__3641_ 010 000 wxallannj ___________ 660_515_519__1694___639_614_686__1939__3633_ 101 100 RodneyS____________660_531_513__1704___542_724_644__1910__3614_ 220 130 Midlo Snow Maker ____690_479_463__1632___641_666_673__1980__3612_ 300 031_3_2__APR wxdude64 __________ 612_515_527__1654___569_640_719__1928__3582_ 000 000_0_1__JUN Tom _______________607_440_513__1560___706_640_674__2020__3580_ 000 100_0_1 blazess556 _________ 665_437_445__1547___666_636_669__1971__3518_ Mallow _____________627_502_476__1605___548_649_710__1907__3512_ 130 011_1_1__JAN Tenman Johnson _____607_457_415__1479___597_668_764__2029__3508_ 211 013_0_1__FEBRjay _______________622_443_487__1552___542_668_724__1934__3486_ 121 010_0_0__MAY Stebo ______________577_403_415__1395___652_580_679__1911__3306_ 100 000 Maxim*_____________ 601_448_413__1462___572_640_574__1786__3248_ 100 110 .. Normal _____________504_386_444__1334___574_602_710__1886__3220_ 010 211 .. hudsonvalley21* _____552_440_434__1426___567_552_658__1677__3203_ 000 102 SD ________________556_349_370__1275___602_674_636__1912__3187_ 000 020_0_0__AUG Roger Smith ________ 459_426_550__1435___548_612_592__1752__3187_001 210 Roger Smith ________ 469_422_550__1441___544_602_592__1738__3179_ 001 210_0_0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 (table continued) ... Absolute Humidity***___ 470_380_448 __1298___545_413_520 __1478__2776_ 011 000_1_0 dmillz25***** _________ 336_248_224 ___808 __ 152 _404_436__ 992__ 1800 _000 010N. of Pike****** _______ 218_148_159 ___525 __ 196_126_140 __ 462 ___987metalicwx366********____70 _ 92 _ 96 ___ 258 ___ 66 _ 96 _ 42 __ 204 ___462_ 001 010_1_0mikehobbyst********____101_108 _ 71 ___280 ___ 38 _ 48 _ 50 ___136 ___416_ 111 000_1_0 Quixotic1********_______ 76 _ 49 _ 60 ___185 ___ 78 _ 50 _ 92 ___ 220 ___405 UnionWeatherWx*********_72_ 32_ 38 ___142 ___ 78 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 250 ___392 Carvers Gap*******______63 _ 39 _ 38 ___140___104 _ 60 _ 80 ___244 ___384 Weatherguy701 ********__54 _ 28 _ 29 ___111 ___ 82 _ 70 _ 98 ___250 ___ 361_ 000 001_0_1 IntenseBlizzard2014*********82_06_ 22 ___110 ___ 74 _ 92 _ 84 ___250 ___ 360 EPluribusUnum *********__ 58 _ 86 _ 72___216___ 26 _ 66 _ 42 ___134 ___ 350 SACRUS *********_______78 _ 36 _ 40___154 ___ 88 _ 68 _ 06 ___162 ___ 316H2OTown__Wx *********__56 _ 28 _ 20___104 ___ 06 _ 56 _ 04 ____66 ___170hockeyinc *********______ 00 _ 00 _ 00____00 ___ 30 _ 26 _ 00 ____56 ____ 56Uncle W ********________ 00 _ 00 _ 00____00 ___ 00 _ 30 _ 10 ____40 ____ 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 Western contest annual updates (final) Jan - Oct 2015 FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA__ TOTAL __ (all 9 in brackets) = ranks __ best scores (west) Isotherm _______________ 546_609_744 ____1899 ______ (5783) = 1 ________ 1 0 2 __ JUN, JUL Midlo Snow Maker ________471_650_728____1849 ______ (5461) = 3 ________ 2 2 2 __ JAN Damage in Tolland _______ 492_643_575____1710 ______ (5535) = 2 ________ 1 4 0 __ AUG Roger Smith ____________ 450_515_704 ____1669 ______ (4858) =10 ________0 1 1 __ OCT Donsutherland.1 _________ 436_588_624____1648 ______ (5361) = 4 ________ 0 0 0 Mallow _________________388_568_590____1546 ______ (5058) = 6 ________ 1 1 0 .. Consensus ______________440_484_546____1470______ (5274) = 5 ________ 2 0 0 .. wxdude64 ______________ 491_471_504 ____1466 ______ (5048) = 7 ________ 1 1 0 wxallannj _______________ 421_468_533 ____1422 ______ (5055) = 5 RodneyS _______________ 444_345_521 ____1310 ______ (4924) = 8 ________ 2 0 2 Tom ___________________386_505_417 ____1308 ______ (4888) = 9 SD ____________________ 404_470_425 ____1299 ______ (4496) =16________ 2 0 0 __ APR Maxim*_________________ 300_453_546 ____1299 ______ (4547) =15 ________ 0 0 1 .. Normal _________________410_446_318 ____1174 ______ (4394) =17 ________ 0 1 0 .. blazess556 ______________298_391_468 ____1157 ______ (4675) =13 ________ 0 0 2 Rjay ___________________ 305_386_413 ____1104 ______ (4590) =14 ________ 0 0 1 __ SEP hudsonvalley21*__________ 307_427_334 ____1068 ______ (4273) =18 ________ 0 0 1 BKViking ________________252_394_421 ____1067 ______ (4708) =12 Stebo __________________ 310_342_399 ____1051 ______ (4355) =17 ________ 1 1 0 __ MAY ksammut ________________272_290_480 ____1042 ______ (4742) =11 Absolute Humidity *** ______ 352_328_329 ____1009 ______ (3785) =19 dmillz25***** _____________ 122_288_252 ____ 662 ______ (2462) =21 N. of Pike ******___________ 217_191_200 ____ 608 ______ (1595) = 22 mikehobbyst******** _______ 138_139_137 ____ 414 _______ (830) =23 ________ 1 1 0 __ FEB,MAR UnionWeatherWx*********____ 90 _ 22 _ 96 ____ 208 _______ (600) = 24 H2OTown_Wx*********______ 70 _ 50 _ 76 ____ 196 _______ (366) =32 Quixotic.1********* __________52 _ 72 _ 57 ____ 181 _______ (586) =26 Carvers Gap*********________94 _ 31 _ 47 ____ 172 _______ (556) =27 _________ 1 0 0 IntenseBlizzard2014*********__40 _ 28 _ 84 ____ 152 _______ (512) = 28 metalicwx366 *********______ 00 _ 72 _ 56 ____ 128 _______ (590) =25 EPluribusUnum********* _____00 _ 70 _ 22 _____ 92 _______ (442) =29 Uncle W *********__________ 26 _ 46 _ 18 _____ 90 _______ (130) =32 SACRUS*********__________ 04 _ 24 _ 48 _____ 76 _______ (392) =31 Weatherguy701*********_____00 _ 08 _ 30 _____ 38 _______ (399) =29 hockeyinc*********__________00 _ 16 _ 08 _____ 24 ________ (80) =33 (not entered in western) Tenman Johnson __________________________________ (3508) =20 ======================================================= * to ********* have missed one to nine months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Extreme forecast update for October 2015 The table of extreme forecasts is getting quite long and so if you want to review the cases between January and August, then check the table near the end of the August thread (post 39). Seven more cases in September and possibly as many as seven in October will bring the total for 2015 to 59 out of 90 so far. Month _____ City ___________ Anom _________ Extreme __ 2nd ext ________ W-L decision Sep 2015 __ DCA ____________ +3.9 _______ +4.1 (Damage) __ +3.8* _______ Win shared by 3 Sep 2015 __ NYC ____________ +6.4 _______ +4.2 RodneyS ___ +4.1 ________ Win RodneyS Sep 2015 __ BOS ____________ +4.3 _______ +3.8 Roger _____ +3.8 (pen) ____Win Roger Sep 2015 __ ORD ____________ +4.4 _______ +3.8 Maxim ____ +2.2 _________Win Maxim Sep 2015 __ ATL _____________ 0.0 ________ 0.0 Normal ____ +1.0 (three) ___ Win see below Sep 2015 __ DEN _____________+6.0 _______ +1.8 (Midlo) ____ +1.6 _________Win Midlo Sep 2015 __ PHX _____________+1.5 _______ +1.7 Rjay _______+1.5 (two) ___ W for two; L Rjay Oct 2015 __ DCA _____________--0.5 _______ --0.7 Tenman J __ --0.3 ksammut _ W shared TJ, ks Oct 2015 __ BOS ______________ 0.0 _______ --0.3 Tom ______ --0.1 ksammut _ W ksammut**, L Tom Oct 2015 __ ORD _____________ +2.2 ______ +3.0 Midlo ______ +2.2 Damage __ W Damage, L Midlo Oct 2015 __ IAH ______________ +1.8 ______ +2.0 Damage ____+1.6 ksammut _ W shared Dam,ks Oct 2015 __ DEN ______________ +5.6 ______ +3.3 Damage ___ +3.0 _________ W Damage Oct 2015 __ PHX ______________ +2.7 ______ +3.0 Roger _____ +2.5 Damage___W Damage, L Roger Oct 2015 __ SEA ______________ +4.4 ______ +5.5 Roger _____ +3.5 RodneyS __W RodS L Roger ** Normal also gets a win for BOS *for DCA, two scores tied with the extreme (Damage in Tolland), one was +3.8 with a 2 point penalty (ksammut) and the other was +3.7 by RodneyS ... all three share the win. for ATL, three tied for extreme as all forecasts were positive, actual was zero, so that Normal won but three forecasters with +1.0 (Mallow, SD, dmillz25) share the win. for PHX, Midlo and Damage tied for best forecast which was the second most extreme, thus Rjay gets a loss in the table below ... Win-Loss records Damage in Tolland ___11-0 Midlo Snow Maker ____ 9-2 Tenman Johnson _____ 8-0 ksammut ____________5-1 Mikehobbyst _________5-2 Rjay _______________ 5-2 RodneyS ____________5-2 Roger Smith _________ 5-5 Isotherm ____________3-0 Mallow _____________ 3-0 Absolute Humidity ____ 2-0 Stebo ______________ 2-0 Maxim ______________2-0 SD _________________2-0 dmillz25 ____________ 2-0 Normal _____________ 2-0 metalicwx366 ________ 1-0 blazess556 __________ 1-0 BKViking ____________1-0 Tom _______________ 1-1 wxdude64 ___________1-2 Donsutherland.1 ______ 0-1 Midlo Snow Maker _____0-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 <<<<<< ==== provisional ANNUAL SCORING FOR 2015, JAN-OCT ==== >>>>>> ... For best viewing, set to 100% to prevent line overflow ... provisional June scoring in post 34 Best scores will be added later, all six are probably not settled yet, same for classic, expanded ... month of OCT shown with ? FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__Classic__ORD_ATL_IAH__Expanded__TOTAL__Best scores and months Isotherm ____________649_587_586__1822___692_626_742__2060__3882_ Damage in Tolland ____745_573_583__1901___646_688_596__1930__3831_ 200 001_1_1__OCT? .. Consensus __________661_499_529__1689___702_687_724__2113__3802 .. DonSutherland.1 _____ 655_507_543__1705___701_587_718__2006__3711_ 101 001_1_1__MAR,JUL ksammut ____________618_567_657__1842___613_515_724__1852__3694_ 001 301_2_0__SEP BKViking ___________ 595_472_546__1613___638_705_680__2023__3636_ 010 000 wxallannj ___________ 662_517_519__1698___637_614_682__1933__3631_ 101 100 Midlo Snow Maker ____692_481_463__1636___643_666_669__1978__3614_ 300 021_3_2__APR RodneyS____________662_529_513__1704___540_724_640__1904__3608_ 220 120 wxdude64 __________ 614_513_527__1654___567_640_715__1922__3576_ 000 000_0_1__JUN Tom _______________609_438_513__1560___704_640_670__2014__3574_ 000 100_0_1 blazess556 _________ 667_435_445__1547___664_646_665__1965__3512_ Mallow _____________629_500_476__1605___546_649_706__1901__3506_ 120 011_1_1__JAN Tenman Johnson _____605_455_415__1475___595_668_760__2013__3498_ 111 013_0_1__FEB Rjay _______________624_445_487__1556___540_668_720__1928__3484_ 121 010_0_0__MAY Stebo ______________579_401_415__1395___650_580_675__1905__3300_ 100 000 Maxim*_____________ 603_450_413__1466___570_640_570__1780__3238_ 100 110 .. Normal _____________506_384_444__1334___572_602_706__1880__3214_ 010 211 .. hudsonvalley21* _____552_440_434__1426___567_552_658__1677__3203_ 000 102 SD ________________556_349_370__1275___602_674_636__1912__3187_ 000 020_0_0__AUG Roger Smith ________ 459_426_550__1435___548_612_592__1752__3187_001 210 Roger Smith ________ 469_422_550__1441___544_602_592__1738__3179_ 001 210_0_0 Is this thru end of Oct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 You have a screenshot of the table before final editing, so check back, there are one or two slight changes. I just finished the editing (3:45 p.m.). I have added in the best scores for October and some of the scores changed by 2 or 4 points so totals will all be just a tiny bit different. Taking a peek at the excel table, Isotherm 3884 and Damage 3825 are the final totals. The entire contest is fairly close, even the forecasters behind you two (and Consensus) still have a chance if they break away in November or December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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