AppsRunner Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Already warmed up to 50F. Glad I'm not on the cooler side of consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 67/48/22/0 Tried bumping the low up to 49 but missed the deadline by one second, we'll see what the low actually is That worked in my favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 That worked in my favor Was torn between 47 and 48 myself... went the safe route and got burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Finally looks like I'll have a good day here, or at least a day making up ground on conesnsus. Hopefully the winds actually come in at 20kts or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Finally looks like I'll have a good day here, or at least a day making up ground on conesnsus. Hopefully the winds actually come in at 20kts or so Ditto. Glad to make up some ground after I failed so miserably on days 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 So far climo is 67/48/18/0 Would not be surprised if winds get up close to 20. Ohwell on the low know better for next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 So far climo is 67/48/18/0 Would not be surprised if winds get up close to 20. Ohwell on the low know better for next time Doubt we're gonna see more than the 18kts. The highest winds were done by around 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 Went 71/52/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Decided to be a little risky and went 73/48/10. Had to rush a forecast at 7:45 but I didn't feel like i was going to far off on a limb. Tonight we're already down to 60F (or 59 if you use the 6hr min) and temperatures should fall quite steadily for the next few hours. Winds will die down more towards 3-4z and there's a decent chance to decouple tonight with clear skies and very weak winds especially towards 9z. If clouds can stay out of the area I think we'll see ISP drop to the 40s and decided it was worth taking the risk. Could easily see a low near 52 or so but if nothing improves for me it would likely be a drop city. Highs tomorrow should be at least a couple degrees warmer. Most guidance was near 70/71 but even with weak mixing it's possible they make it even higher than that. High risk/high reward forecasts haven't gone well so far for me this city... we'll see about it this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 72/52/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 71/52/9/0 Not really worth gambling this day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 71/51/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I'll forecast something bold tomorrow evening if I'm still in the top 30 or if the Cubs win tonight. 71/51/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 71/51/9Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 70/52/8 Didn't put any effort into this forecast because this city is agitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 71/51/10 yea this will probably end up as a drop city for me we will see how the rest of the week goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Well, this sucks. Except for AppsRunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Decided to be a little risky and went 73/48/10. Had to rush a forecast at 7:45 but I didn't feel like i was going to far off on a limb. Tonight we're already down to 60F (or 59 if you use the 6hr min) and temperatures should fall quite steadily for the next few hours. Winds will die down more towards 3-4z and there's a decent chance to decouple tonight with clear skies and very weak winds especially towards 9z. If clouds can stay out of the area I think we'll see ISP drop to the 40s and decided it was worth taking the risk. Could easily see a low near 52 or so but if nothing improves for me it would likely be a drop city. Highs tomorrow should be at least a couple degrees warmer. Most guidance was near 70/71 but even with weak mixing it's possible they make it even higher than that. High risk/high reward forecasts haven't gone well so far for me this city... we'll see about it this time! Good job on the low, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Good job on the low, man!Thanks! I went to sleep at midnight and the temp was still way to warm. Thankfully the hour winds went calm ISP dropped 5 degrees. Now if we can get that high up to 73... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 Thanks! I went to sleep at midnight and the temp was still way to warm. Thankfully the hour winds went calm ISP dropped 5 degrees. Now if we can get that high up to 73... That worked out for you for sure. ISP radiates OK if they get that clear/calm combo it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Wow. The high is already at 73.9. Good call, AppsRunner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Decided to be a little risky and went 73/48/10. Had to rush a forecast at 7:45 but I didn't feel like i was going to far off on a limb. Tonight we're already down to 60F (or 59 if you use the 6hr min) and temperatures should fall quite steadily for the next few hours. Winds will die down more towards 3-4z and there's a decent chance to decouple tonight with clear skies and very weak winds especially towards 9z. If clouds can stay out of the area I think we'll see ISP drop to the 40s and decided it was worth taking the risk. Could easily see a low near 52 or so but if nothing improves for me it would likely be a drop city. Highs tomorrow should be at least a couple degrees warmer. Most guidance was near 70/71 but even with weak mixing it's possible they make it even higher than that. High risk/high reward forecasts haven't gone well so far for me this city... we'll see about it this time! Forecast of the year thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Wow that was a good call Apprunner Today definitely shifted a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I had 72/52...great job AppsRunner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Thanks for the nice replies everyone! If winds peaked at 9kts I move to just outside the top 100, but if we hit 10kts after 4:30 then I'll move up around 400 spots today! Tomorrow is another tricky forecast... do they make a run at a second consecutive record high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 72/50/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 73/51/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 72/51/16/0 I can see 49-50 working out, but dew points were running high so I can see 52-53 as well. The high, I just went with GFS MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 71/51/18/0.01 Decided to go with a shower, clouds may move in a bit earlier than expected and cut the heating off but also may protect lows from getting too low too quickly. The showers should come through just after midnight tomorrow so we will see how it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 After a lot of deliberation, 72/49/18/0. Tonight has another decent shot at good radiational cooling. The HRRR/HRDPS both show winds weakening significantly and the HRRR drops them to the upper 40s. Cloud cover becomes an issue again so it will likely be another 2-3 hour window to work with. Dew points are running a little warmer today but should lower several degrees overnight. Winds will likely die down a little earlier, and if clouds can clear out I think we'll see another 48 or so low. Again, it depends on a lot of factors and a 54 like OHWeather has may end up working out too. Max temps are going to likely be a little cooler than today's.... I'm not exactly sure how a stronger southerly wind will effect high temperatures but even so mixing looks just as weak and potential temps are a degree celsius or so lower, so a low 70s seems fine. Precip was a question mark but the difference between 0.01 and 0" wasn't worth a gamble for me. We'll see how it goes, at 59F currently so I need another 10F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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