OHweather Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 69/51/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 69/51/15/0 My goal is to break the top 100 for at least one day... I'm at 230 now. The competition is tighter than I imagined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 69/53/17/0 looks im alone on the warm min idea haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 68/49/16/0 I'm 68/49/17/0 This city is going to be a little rough overall based on how tight of a cluster there has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 68/49/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 68/50/19/0 So, this is a weird excuse for putting in 19 knots, but I think I read USL at 18 knots instead of 13 knots when I was trying to put together my forecast quickly 3 hours before the deadline. Embarrassing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 68/50/19/0 So, this is a weird excuse for putting in 19 knots, but I think I read USL at 18 knots instead of 13 knots when I was trying to put together my forecast quickly 3 hours before the deadline. Embarrassing... Maybe you'll get a lucky gust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 68/53/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 Max hourly wind was 12 knots. Climo has 12 knots. Ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I had a bad forecasting day today. For tomorrow: 63/44/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Maybe you'll get a lucky gust! Nope Oh well... at least this city is super small with error points so a good D3 and D4 should get me back into Top 200. 65/45/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 65/47/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 64/46/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Hmm, we're all over the place for D3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 63/44/12 for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I had a bad forecasting day today. For tomorrow: 63/44/12 63/44/12 for tomorrow I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 65/44/12 In the absence of OHWeather reasoning I'll do my best to provide some. Looked like 850 mb temps. were about 6C today when they reached 70F. It looks like they will bet at around 3.5C tomorrow so if we assume the same mixing height, that would yield 18.5C at the surface or 65F. It is probably a little risky to assume similar mixing as the NAM showed a bit of an inversion but I just felt that is probably overplayed as we are still early in meteorological autumn and they'll have full sun. Definitely most worried about the low with clouds coming in from the west but hoping CAA can compensate and allow the low to be under guidance (save 18z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 65/44/12 In the absence of OHWeather reasoning I'll do my best to provide some. Looked like 850 mb temps. were about 6C today when they reached 70F. It looks like they will bet at around 3.5C tomorrow so if we assume the same mixing height, that would yield 18.5C at the surface or 65F. It is probably a little risky to assume similar mixing as the NAM showed a bit of an inversion but I just felt that is probably overplayed as we are still early in meteorological autumn and they'll have full sun. Definitely most worried about the low with clouds coming in from the west but hoping CAA can compensate and allow the low to be under guidance (save 18z NAM). I work Wednesday evenings. My forecast was pretty quickly done, but similar logic on the high. Applied Euro/USL biases for high also and got around 65. As for the low, not a perfect radiational cooling night. I know ISP is actually in an OK spot to radiate compared to other portions of Long Island/NYC, but until I get burned for going too warm on a low I'm going to keep doing it on nights that aren't perfect for radiating...tonight looks a bit too windy for it. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I work Wednesday evenings. My forecast was pretty quickly done, but similar logic on the high. Applied Euro/USL biases for high also and got around 65. As for the low, not a perfect radiational cooling night. I know ISP is actually in an OK spot to radiate compared to other portions of Long Island/NYC, but until I get burned for going too warm on a low I'm going to keep doing it on nights that aren't perfect for radiating...tonight looks a bit too windy for it. We'll see. You're doing all the burning so far. A balmy 57F with the overcast overhead last hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 3 straight 47s in the hourly METARs and a 45 min this morning. Last night's 53 at 6z didn't help either. Can we go back to Sandberg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Bummer on the low. I can gain a couple on consensus if my high and wind work out. I don't have my mojo from last year yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 climo report: 64/45/11 I think I've busted high on winds every day so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 climo report: 64/45/11 I think I've busted high on winds every day so far These intra hour obs keep killing me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 67/48/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 I'm going for broke! 66/51/22/0.03" Going for increased clouds and SW winds trying to stay up tonight keeping temps in the lower 50's. As for the wind and precip, models hint at a modest amount of CAPE building immediately ahead of the front early Friday AM with 30 knot winds just off the surface, with what appears to be just enough moisture for some convective showers to develop. The idea is that a shower hits ISP and drops a little precip and helps mix down winds right along the front. Slightly risky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 67/48/13/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 67/48/15/0 67/47/15/0 This is about as risky as I wanted to get with this city at this point. For low temps I saw two potential chances to drop down into the 40s from both tonight and tomorrow night. Temps are already around 55F based on the 0z observation and winds don't look to pick up for a while tonight. Chances of going to calm winds is unlikely but it looked like a few hour window before the thicker cloud deck moves in later tonight. Tomorrow night also has a chance to drop rather quickly, but that didn't pan out earlier in the week. GFS/NAM both show mixing will be likely be ~60mb deeper with fairly similar temperatures, so I tacked on a few degrees from today's max. 12z GFS MOS has gone 3/3 on max temps so far and I've been on the wrong side of that each day. Winds will be tricky... some convection may fire early in the morning and could tap into the stronger low level winds but I went against that in a more conservative forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 67/47/15/0 This is about as risky as I wanted to get with this city at this point. For low temps I saw two potential chances to drop down into the 40s from both tonight and tomorrow night. Temps are already around 55F based on the 0z observation and winds don't look to pick up for a while tonight. Chances of going to calm winds is unlikely but it looked like a few hour window before the thicker cloud deck moves in later tonight. Tomorrow night also has a chance to drop rather quickly, but that didn't pan out earlier in the week. GFS/NAM both show mixing will be likely be ~60mb deeper with fairly similar temperatures, so I tacked on a few degrees from today's max. 12z GFS MOS has gone 3/3 on max temps so far and I've been on the wrong side of that each day. Winds will be tricky... some convection may fire early in the morning and could tap into the stronger low level winds but I went against that in a more conservative forecast. My numbers as well. MOS is doing well so far, so why not stick with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 67/48/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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