weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 For your first city ever, 188th is pretty solid. You were beating consensus which is a nice goal each city. I finished 9th overall last year for the whole contest and finished worse than consensus in 4 cities (although two of those were just by a few points). You'll take a huge hit tomorrow by taking climo but overall I wouldn't be too disappointed. Just remember to forecast in the future I was doing great at remembering but Thursday's totally blow. I have classes from 10:50 until 3:30 then I don't get back to my room until sometimes 4:15 then I have to grab food, then I type up my meteorology notes I have to submit for someone and try to get that done before my next class which goes from 6:00 until 7:40. and of course with massive riding tomorrow will be well above climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 cant seem to get past this point sitting at 461 with a forecast of 88/68/23 Laramie Wy last year got in second overall cali just doesnt treat me right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Hmm, with the 19kt verification yesterday, I think a low of 68°F or higher guarantees me a trophy. Hope I'm not mistaken! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 Hmm, with the 19kt verification yesterday, I think a low of 68°F or higher guarantees me a trophy. Hope I'm not mistaken!Nice, well done!My wind forecasts likely kept me from realistically being in the running for a trophy here...on to ISP next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Nice, well done! My wind forecasts likely kept me from realistically being in the running for a trophy here...on to ISP next week. Thanks! By the way, the current record for latest 90°F on record in KSDB is October 8th, so if they do reach 90°F today, that'll be a new record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 84 on the last OBS but wind, weather and sky conditions are missing $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Dammit, it got stuck at 85F the last two observations. Damn east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 climo has: 88/69/19 on to islip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 10, 2015 Author Share Posted October 10, 2015 Assuming no change I'll finish 293rd with a standardized score of -3. Definitely looking to improve at ISP, although I've had worse cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Assuming nothing crazy happens with the wind or min temp, I'll finish 87th overall with a score of -5. Off to a good start, hopefully this year I'll remember to forecast every day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 450 better then my first time last year. Lets see what happens in Islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 90/68/19 Battling with Mallow! Congrats on No. 1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Congrats on No. 1! Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Thanks man! congrats!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 Thanks man! Congrats!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 71/59/20/0.01". Really wasn't sure how to feel about any of those numbers. The Euro and the last HRRR both had about a tenth of an inch of precip., but every other HRRR/4km NAM run was dry. Winds out of the south/SSW typically don't reach 20kts but low level winds look pretty strong during the afternoon. Temps were kind of just a guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 Went 72/60/20/0.00" Not extremely confident on any variable. Stronger SSW flow off of the cooler waters tomorrow during the day and more clouds...but I see them starting the day in the lower 60's with some potential for solar insolation. Overall felt the GFS MOS was too warm with 74, but I can see them getting lower 70's. Low was a bit of a risk. Clouds should move in by 6z and winds may never completely die, so I'm hoping that if they do fall into the upper 50's this evening that they start warming by 6z. Not sure how they do on CAA here, but it seemed quick to cool them well into the 50's by 6z tomorrow night, and the NAM and Euro keep them in the lower 60's until after 6z tomorrow night, so took that risk. BL average winds look to get to 22-24kt for a few hours tomorrow, and if they do get any amount of sun and mix in the shallow BL I don't think 20 knots is unreasonable. Precip is also less than straight forward...pretty good surge of high theta-e air on the nose of the low level jet tonight could spark some convection, but the best threat looks east. The best ascent really misses ISP to the north as the cold front moves through tomorrow. All in all it could rain but think it won't be much...went 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 71/58/23/0.00 Definitely a tough forecast all around I think. Clouds could make for high temps perhaps not reaching above the 70F mark and tonight's low will depend on how quickly the dewpoints rise and where they end up at. I went rather aggressive with winds b/c with winds looking S to SW-ish ahead of an approaching cold front...perfect situation for winds to rip a bit and winds above the surface are on the strong side...GFS bufkit was much more aggressive than the NAM with winds so hedged with the GFS b/c I felt it would handle this situation better. For precip...just seemed too isolated of a threat and models weren't too striking for much rain potential. If there is any showers hopefully it stays away from Islip lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 71/57/24/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Congrats!! congrats!! Thanks you guys! You guys are all great forecasters and I learned from you so I don't want to take all the credit. And of course plenty of luck was involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 70/58/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 73/57/19/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 73/57/21/0.00 Only real nervous part is precip was thinking 0.01 for buffer and went a little higher per flow. Nice to see the 00z 4km Nam came in a little warmer and brings up the concern for pop up convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 If the high hits 72+ and the wind 20+ I'll have an OK day. Was off an hour on the temp warming (although it's possible they get cooler by 6z tonight anyways) and it looks like they got 0.03" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 I think we top off at 72 would love to see 73. Winds are going to probably come in 19 knots maybe 20 on the day overall not a bad start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 71F so far, and the temperature will probably be 69F-70F this hour... but many stations to the west that dropped some after reaching an early peak have since bounced back and are finding new highs, so perhaps over the next couple hours, the same could happen at KISP. I'd guess the 71F is most likely going to be the high, but with a not unreasonable shot (maybe 40%) at 72F or 73F. EDIT: 69F it is this hour, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 71F so far, and the temperature will probably be 69F-70F this hour... but many stations to the west that dropped some after reaching an early peak have since bounced back and are finding new highs, so perhaps over the next couple hours, the same could happen at KISP. I'd guess the 71F is most likely going to be the high, but with a not unreasonable shot (maybe 40%) at 72F or 73F. EDIT: 69F it is this hour, as expected. It could have happened but most likely as you said high of 71. Darn clouds thinking the wind probably maxed around 18 knots hoping for higher though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 Climo has 72/57/19/0.03" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Climo has 72/57/19/0.03" so far Hey, on a day like today, I'd take 1 point anytime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 68/49/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.