weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 so far climo report has: 81/56/20 20...crap yes!!!!! sucks that the 81/56 happened inbetween b/c I had 80/57 and they had 57 for the longest time as the report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 86/62/19/0 I'm now inside Top 70 and still slowly climbing because of my slightly conservative wind forecast on a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 87/63/19 Took a risk on the high, but a good day could put me as high as 3rd after today. Of course, that's unlikely (getting both the high and wind spot on), so more likely I'll be somewhat lower. Really hoping for one of those cat 2 trophies. EDIT: If it's 83F at 18z, I'll be feeling good about my 87F. 82F and I'd be on edge. 81F and I think I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 Took a risk on the high, but a good day could put me as high as 3rd after today. Of course, that's unlikely (getting both the high and wind spot on), so more likely I'll be somewhat lower. Really hoping for one of those cat 2 trophies. EDIT: If it's 83F at 18z, I'll be feeling good about my 87F. 82F and I'd be on edge. 81F and I think I'm out. I had 87 at first and chickened out. Sort of wishing I didn't change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Ugh... 72F, really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 Ugh... 72F, really?How? Did the station fall down the hill it's on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 How? Did the station fall down the hill it's on? A burst of NNWerlies, I guess... the easterlies need to kick back in. But that might be too much of a setback for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 A burst of NNWerlies, I guess... the easterlies need to kick back in. But that might be too much of a setback for me.It looks like the winds should weaken for most of the day until evening...so hopefully they pop right back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 76 now with variable winds. They hit 79 intra-hour before the NNW winds kicked up and it's only 11am there...hopefully a sign that if the winds return to a more easterly direction they can still shoot up into the mid 80's. The NAM has very weak low level winds for the next several hours before strong NNW winds redevelop this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Still think my 87 is in trouble, but really, it's 11 degrees in 3-4 hours. Not impossible. EDIT: Maybe it is impossible. Couldn't find a day over the past month where the temperature rose more than 7F between now and the high temperature, and I need 11. Damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Still think my 87 is in trouble, but really, it's 11 degrees in 3-4 hours. Not impossible. EDIT: Maybe it is impossible. Couldn't find a day over the past month where the temperature rose more than 7F between now and the high temperature, and I need 11. Damn... lol it just went up 6 degrees from 19 to 20z. 85F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 lol it just went up 6 degrees from 19 to 20z. 85F now. Yeah, that was a nice surprise. Maybe 87F isn't out of the question after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 So. Cal is gonna bake tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 87 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 So. Cal is gonna bake tomorrow. 87 so far Wow, that's insane considering KSDB dropped back down to 72 earlier Tomorrow is a great opportunity to crush the consensus and leave this station on high note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 What a wacky day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 Wow, that's insane considering KSDB dropped back down to 72 earlier Tomorrow is a great opportunity to crush the consensus and leave this station on high note.If I had to guess, consensus will be 88 or 89 for the high tomorrow. I could see them getting to 91 at most although I'm not sure if I'll forecast that or go a tad cooler. Winds are a little perplexing...can they funnel ENE winds as well as NNW winds there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 If I had to guess, consensus will be 88 or 89 for the high tomorrow. I could see them getting to 91 at most although I'm not sure if I'll forecast that or go a tad cooler. Winds are a little perplexing...can they funnel ENE winds as well as NNW winds there? It looks like there could be decent downslope off of the mountains into the valley south of SDB tomorrow with a bit of a surface trough along the coast...but there's a gap in the mountains east of SDB. The NNW winds tonight could stay gusty for a couple of hours after 8z, but I have a feeling the strongest winds between now and 6z Saturday will be this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 If I had to guess, consensus will be 88 or 89 for the high tomorrow. I could see them getting to 91 at most although I'm not sure if I'll forecast that or go a tad cooler. Winds are a little perplexing...can they funnel ENE winds as well as NNW winds there? I think consensus will be 88 tomorrow, but I'm having same thoughts as you. Do we aim high or will winds keep that in check? Tough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 Settled on 91/67/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Decided to gamble on winds rather than the high. 90/68/24/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 90/69/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 89/67/21 in my 10 minute forecast when I realized it was 7:45. Hopefully I'll walk out still well below consensus. Won't win a trophy but overall CA didn't treat me too poorly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 forgot to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 forgot to forecast Luckily you get one drop city per semester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Luckily you get one drop city per semester oh sweet. I was doing pretty damn well then the past 3 days just took a nose dive. I think I'm down to 188th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 90/68/19 Battling with Mallow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 oh sweet. I was doing pretty damn well then the past 3 days just took a nose dive. I think I'm down to 188th For your first city ever, 188th is pretty solid. You were beating consensus which is a nice goal each city. I finished 9th overall last year for the whole contest and finished worse than consensus in 4 cities (although two of those were just by a few points). You'll take a huge hit tomorrow by taking climo but overall I wouldn't be too disappointed. Just remember to forecast in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 For your first city ever, 188th is pretty solid. You were beating consensus which is a nice goal each city. I finished 9th overall last year for the whole contest and finished worse than consensus in 4 cities (although two of those were just by a few points). You'll take a huge hit tomorrow by taking climo but overall I wouldn't be too disappointed. Just remember to forecast in the future To add on, I didn't even beat the consensus until my second semester of WxChallenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Decided to gamble on winds rather than the high. 90/68/24/0 Hey, that's my forecast, too! 90/68/19 Battling with Mallow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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