Mallow Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Congratulations, Phil! Ended up being only 1 kt off from having a chance today. But I still gotta forecast! I'm in second overall in this city as of the end of yesterday, and only 0.3 points behind first. They put 54F for a low today and otherwise had my numbers, so as long as my calculations are correct, I should be in first by 0.7 points after today. And third place would be 2.4 points or further behind me (again, if my calculations are correct). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 58 But still, congrats on making it this far Thanks! It was a fun year (and much better overall for me), so I was happy to make it this far. Unfortunately, I missed a Friday forecast so I'm done for the year. Hope to see familiar names in this thread again next year! Best of luck to you by the way, Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Congratulations, Phil! Ended up being only 1 kt off from having a chance today. But I still gotta forecast! I'm in second overall in this city as of the end of yesterday, and only 0.3 points behind first. They put 54F for a low today and otherwise had my numbers, so as long as my calculations are correct, I should be in first by 0.7 points after today. And third place would be 2.4 points or further behind me (again, if my calculations are correct). Thanks! It was a fun year (and much better overall for me), so I was happy to make it this far. Unfortunately, I missed a Friday forecast so I'm done for the year. Hope to see familiar names in this thread again next year! Best of luck to you by the way, Phil. Thanks guys! Looks like my next opponent is from the University of Alabama: Huntsville, so he may have a little bit of hometown knowledge working for him. None the less, I'll try my best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Was torn between 87/88, 60/61, and 13/14, but ended up going 87/60/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Was torn between 87/88, 60/61, and 13/14, but ended up going 87/60/14 For me it was between 86/87 58/59 and 12.... ended up with 87/58/12. Opponent has 86/60/12. We'll see how low they get tonight with close to perfect radiational cooling conditions (especially if they go calm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 86/64/16/0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 I'll have a 1 point lead heading into tomorrow. Which is nothing given the high uncertainty and potential for convective precip tomorrow. Me (1): 85/64/17/0.25" Him (10): 85/65/17/0.27" another nail biter. If the low can get to 64 tonight (or in the cold pool if a squall line moves through tomorrow) then I win. If not, than I can still win if precip is less than 0.26". If it is exactly 0.26" than we tie, and he advances (he will have the lower day 2 score). On the other side of the bracket, the contest is equally close: acuman is 0.5 points ahead going into tomorrow (he was the winner of overall WxChallenge season) acuman (1) 86/64/16/0.00" akuro1 (4): 85/64/15/0.02" Basically the high, the winds, and precip could all factor into who advances from the other side of the bracket. I find it remarkable that both sides had very close to the same precip (while being on opposite sides of the consensus). If both 1 seeds advance, it would be the first time in WxChallenge tournament history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Good luck, Phil! Hope you get No. 1 so that I can say I only lost because I had to go against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 88/57/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Good luck, Phil! Hope you get No. 1 so that I can say I only lost because I had to go against you. Haha! Well I've made it to the finals! I'll be facing akuro1 and he knocked out acuman in the final four. Here is day 1 of the finals: [me] kpap88 (1): 85/56/11/0.00" [him] akuro1 (4): 88/55/8/0.00" I'm not exactly happy how different our high's are for tomorrow, where the difference will likely come down to how much cloud cover there is tomorrow (from another possible MCS off to the west). We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 I definitely considered a lower high because of the clouds. But with the USLs at 88, I couldn't stray too far from them. I like your wind and low better for sure, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Haha! Well I've made it to the finals! I'll be facing akuro1 and he knocked out acuman in the final four. Here is day 1 of the finals: [me] kpap88 (1): 85/56/11/0.00" [him] akuro1 (4): 88/55/8/0.00" I'm not exactly happy how different our high's are for tomorrow, where the difference will likely come down to how much cloud cover there is tomorrow (from another possible MCS off to the west). We'll see. With that low and wind, worst case scenario is you're behind by 0.5 points after today if the high is 88F or higher. Otherwise, you'll be ahead after day one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 With that low and wind, worst case scenario is you're behind by 0.5 points after today if the high is 88F or higher. Otherwise, you'll be ahead after day one. Yea temp is still a huge wildcard. Cirrus is moving in from the huge MCS developing over AR, but its unclear how much that will keep the temperatures down (if at all). FWIW, HRRR says it gets up to 90F today with the cloud deck moving in, which seem suspicious, but makes me pretty nervous. Today might not even matter too much given the likelihood for significant precip tomorrow... Also I wish I would have had the guts to put precip today, because it's clear they are going to get some this evening given the trends upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Yea temp is still a huge wildcard. Cirrus is moving in from the huge MCS developing over AR, but its unclear how much that will keep the temperatures down (if at all). FWIW, HRRR says it gets up to 90F today with the cloud deck moving in, which seem suspicious, but makes me pretty nervous. Today might not even matter to much given the likelihood for significant precip tomorrow... Also I wish I would have had the guts to put precip today, because it's clear they are going to get some this evening given the trends upstream. HRRR has been very wrong on other cirrus days, though, so you have that going for ya. Right now I'm thinking 86F is the most likely high for today. Definitely agree re: the precip. I thought about putting some in too, and now it's looking like they're probably going to get quite a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 HRRR has been very wrong on other cirrus days, though, so you have that going for ya. Right now I'm thinking 86F is the most likely high for today. Definitely agree re: the precip. I thought about putting some in too, and now it's looking like they're probably going to get quite a bit! Climo numbers are 84/57/14/0.00" (with rain soon to begin). Looks like I'll have a 5.5 point lead heading into day two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Climo numbers are 84/57/14/0.00" (with rain soon to begin). Looks like I'll have a 5.5 point lead heading into day two. That's awesome! So we'll get you to win the tournament, and me to win the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Congrats, Phil!!! I was a little busy this year so I was unable to forecast for a few cities. I have a slim shot (4/5 points behind) at Cat 3 for KHSV, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 82/65/18/0.14 Even with my lead, there are several forecasters who could catch up to me tomorrow. They'd generally need a high high, a high low, low wind, and zero precipitation to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Well it's not over yet... tomorrow is another exceptionally tricky day with high uncertainty for all variables. I have a 5.5 point lead heading into tomorrow, but our numbers are very different for tomorrow's forecast. [me] kpap88 (1): 83/64/17/0.13" [him] akuro1 (4): 86/68/16/0.00" So yea, our forecasts are not close at all, so there are a lot of possible scenarios. Worst case for me, he has a zero point day, where I'll score 12.4 points, losing by 6.9 points. However, if the low stays 64 or lower (its 64F right now), then I win by default, because the most he would be able to gain on me is 4.9 points with the remaining variables. There are a lot more complicated scenarios, but that looks to be the simplest pathway to victory. Precip tomorrow is an absolute crapshoot, and I could see anywhere from 0.00" to 1.00"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Well it's not over yet... tomorrow is another exceptionally tricky day with high uncertainty for all variables. I have a 5.5 point lead heading into tomorrow, but our numbers are very different for tomorrow's forecast. [me] kpap88 (1): 83/64/17/0.13" [him] akuro1 (4): 86/68/16/0.00" So yea, our forecasts are not close at all, so there are a lot of possible scenarios. Worst case for me, he has a zero point day, where I'll score 12.4 points, losing by 6.9 points. However, if the low stays 64 or lower (its 64F right now), then I win by default, because the most he would be able to gain on me is 4.9 points with the remaining variables. There are a lot more complicated scenarios, but that looks to be the simplest pathway to victory. Precip tomorrow is an absolute crapshoot, and I could see anywhere from 0.00" to 1.00"+ We're basically rooting for each other's numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Phil, looks like it's coming down to the wire for both of us, and we're both rooting for the same thing--either a low high, more precipitation, or some combination of both. We're both sitting okay for now, but if the high gets above 82 for me, or 83 for you, we're going to need help from precipitation. The HRRR still likes sending a band through this evening, but most other models mostly kill it off before it gets in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Phil, looks like it's coming down to the wire for both of us, and we're both rooting for the same thing--either a low high, more precipitation, or some combination of both. We're both sitting okay for now, but if the high gets above 82 for me, or 83 for you, we're going to need help from precipitation. The HRRR still likes sending a band through this evening, but most other models mostly kill it off before it gets in there. Yea the high is another tricky one today. They will have on an off cloud cover most of the day, but they are clearing out temporarily right now, and hte temperature is skyrocketing as a result. My thinking is that if it does get pretty warm, that will boost CAPE ahead of the squall line and make it more likely substantial precipitation occurs. If it stays cooler, we benefit with lower temperatures even if the convection doesn't become reinvigorated in the afternoon. Tough call either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Yea the high is another tricky one today. They will have on an off cloud cover most of the day, but they are clearing out temporarily right now, and hte temperature is skyrocketing as a result. My thinking is that if it does get pretty warm, that will boost CAPE ahead of the squall line and make it more likely substantial precipitation occurs. If it stays cooler, we benefit with lower temperatures even if the convection doesn't become reinvigorated in the afternoon. Tough call either way. Agreed, but there is that icky in-between possibility of 84-but-all-the-precip-just-misses-them... and it's not an especially unlikely scenario. As for the clouds, after 11AM their time, they should be quickly building back in thicker again. Temperatures are still rising pretty quickly around town, but if it's, say, 78F next hour, I still think 82F is possible. EDIT: 76F this hour. I think that's still right on track for an 82-83 type high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 There's also a boundary from previous storms moving in from the west, barely visible on radar moving into the northwestern corner of Alabama right now. If that makes it to Huntsville, and if it does so within the next few hours, it could substantially slow or even reverse the afternoon temperature rise. Just another thing to hope for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Wow at how those storms are dodging the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Wow at how those storms are dodging the airport. Haha seriously... there was a tornado warning on one of those cells just to its north, yet the airport somehow only got 10 knots of wind today. Not that most of that matters though, I beat my opponent on both the high and low today, so losing on the winds and rain wasn't enough to even beat me today, so I'll be the next WxChallenge tournament champion! Looks like I'll also nab 2nd place for the Cat 2 overall in KHSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 The HRRR and RAP has some precip coming in late. I doubt it verifies, but it gives me hope nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Haha seriously... there was a tornado warning on one of those cells just to its north, yet the airport somehow only got 10 knots of wind today. Not that most of that matters though, I beat my opponent on both the high and low today, so losing on the winds and rain wasn't enough to even beat me today, so I'll be the next WxChallenge tournament champion! Looks like I'll also nab 2nd place for the Cat 2 overall in KHSV. Congratulations! Now I can say I got knocked out by the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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