Mallow Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 That 68F high hurts a lot, especially since it looks likely to get below 50F before 06z. That'll put me 2.4 points behind my competition going into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Me: 75/44/13/0.06 Competition: Guidanced! Looks like I caught a lucky break (guidance is 68/45/11/0, not that it matters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 If the low drops below 50, ill be pretty much neck and neck with my competition. For tomorrow: Me: 73/44/14/0.00 Competition: 71/45/12/0.06 Spent forever contemplating 72/73 on the high, as well as the precip. Having the temp stay above 50 before 06z tonight would make me feel a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Depending on the low (and I suppose if winds go higher than 15kts, which I think is unlikely) tonight, I should have at least a 5.3 point lead going into tomorrow. My Forecast: 73/44/11/0.02" Competition: 74/44/13/0.03" Only a 2.4 point spread between us, so unless I can't do math right I also should advance. Beats last year when I got killed in the tournament! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Gonna be cutting it close on my end. The 14kt wind that just got reported is a big help and puts me ahead by 2 points. However, my 0.00" and his 0.06" precip call could be the deciding factor. If temp hits 72+ I think I'm locked in. If temp stays 71 or lower, 0.05" would tie us back up (with him winning the tiebreaker) and 0.06"+ would give him a 0.4 point lead. Either way, at least it won't be a blowout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Me: 70/54/19/0 Comp: 70/53/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Me: 70/54/19/0 Comp: 70/53/17/0 I'm even closer: My Forecast: 69/53/17/0.00" Competition: 69/53/19/0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Gah, I wish Tuesday/Wednesday didn't happen. If not for being scared from those two days, I would have had 73+ for a high... and at this point, I am thinking that is quite possible or even likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 I ended up getting knocked out first round from too high of a temp forecast and putting no precip. Was fun though. I'll probably keep forecasting since this is likely going to be my last year. Good luck to everyone still in it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 I'll go into the upcoming day 1.0 points behind. My Forecast: 75/54/19/0.00" Competition: 75/53/19/0.00" If the low stays at 54 or above, we tie. The first tiebreaker is combined High/Low temperature forecasts. Since every temperature forecast has been exactly the same so far, it all comes down to the low. If its 54F tomorrow, I advance, and if it's 53 or lower I'm out. I had considered going 53F for the low tonight too, which would've put me out of the game immediately. I'm amazed how similar our forecasts were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 16, 2016 Author Share Posted April 16, 2016 We have a local tournament at Ohio U that I haven't been knocked out of yet. I'm going 75/55/18 for tomorrow. If I'm doing well after the local tournament is over I may go for a "consolation" trophy as I suspect I may not participate next year. Maybe I'll play as an alumni but I probably won't have time some days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 got knocked out in the first round .. 75/53/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 Going into tomorrow ahead by 2 points... Me: 77/54/21 Competition: 75/53/17 Lots of room for movement still. Up to five points either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 Those overnight clouds were tricky. A low of 60 was very unexpected. I thought there would be less humidity too. Currently at 70/60/19/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Me: 82/51/9/0.00 Comp: 81/51/8/0.00 Overall pretty similar. I'm up against the winner of the regular season (acuman), so I'm gonna need some luck to win. Hopefully the high pans out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Me: 80/50/8/0 Comp: 82/50/8/0 Was hoping the clouds would make a big difference tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Me: 82/58/13/0 Comp: 78/60/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Down 1.5 points after today. Me: 82/56/12/0.00 Comp: 82/59/12/0.00. Low of 56 or lower I win, any higher I lose. At least I'll have a good idea when I wake up tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Down 1.5 points after today. Me: 82/56/12/0.00 Comp: 82/59/12/0.00. Low of 56 or lower I win, any higher I lose. At least I'll have a good idea when I wake up tomorrow 58 But still, congrats on making it this far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Haven't posted here in a while, but it looks like Mallow and I are matched up for the elite 8! Should be a fun matchup. May the best forecaster move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Haven't posted here in a while, but it looks like Mallow and I are matched up for the elite 8! Should be a fun matchup. May the best forecaster move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 79/57/16/0.16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 78/58/14/0.09 Could definitely see Mallow's numbers... Think precip is the wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 78/58/14/0.09 Could definitely see Mallow's numbers... Think precip is the wildcard. Agreed. I could see anything from 0 to 0.3 or so, but I think 0 is more likely. I just didn't want to be caught off guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Well that hurts. The heavy rain missed JUST to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Well that hurts. The heavy rain missed JUST to the north. Yea that was a close call! Think you might have me on the temperature today. Things are clearing out now, and they are already 71. Pretty sure they can get to 80 with another 3-4 hours of heating. HRRR suggests as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 I feel like the winds should have picked up more by now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 80/53/16 Unless I get both the wind and low today (and the wind is looking pretty much impossible at this point), I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 80/53/16 Unless I get both the wind and low today (and the wind is looking pretty much impossible at this point), I'm out. 80/53/17 So it will probably come down to how tonight verifies. If its 80/57(or below)/16(or above)... you actually win outright for tomorrow (since I'll be down by more than 0.5 points) If its 80/57(or below)/15 then tomorrow's wind forecast will matter If its 80/58(or above)/15(or below)... then I win ouright for tomorrow (since you will be down by more than 0.5 points) This is the first time I've ever advanced out of the first round (after 4 previous attempts)... so it has been a crazy year for me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 80/53/17 So it will probably come down to how tonight verifies. If its 80/57(or below)/16(or above)... you actually win outright for tomorrow (since I'll be down by more than 0.5 points) If its 80/57(or below)/15 then tomorrow's wind forecast will matter If its 80/58(or above)/15(or below)... then I win ouright for tomorrow (since you will be down by more than 0.5 points) This is the first time I've ever advanced out of the first round (after 4 previous attempts)... so it has been a crazy year for me so far. Furthest I've gotten as well. Only ever made it to the second round before. Since the climo only has 13kts through 4PM, I think it's highly likely you get your 14kts or below, meaning you'll win outright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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