OHweather Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 This place is making me think the stuff I think I know about forecasting mins is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Unless ibdomt know how to read radar, it certainly looks like there's going to be somewhat significant precip this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Assuming today's high was 65F or less, and the precip will be 0.10" or more, I will need to gain about 3.8 points (not standard deviations, but just points) on the current third place category 2 forecaster over the last two days to pull ahead of him. So, just 4 degrees or 8 kts would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 This place is making me think the stuff I think I know about forecasting mins is wrongAnd maxes. And precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 67/50/34/0.75 Tough forecast coming up, as virtually any area could bust in either direction. The only thing that probably won't bust low is the high temperature, as I almost wanted to go higher, but am not sure about clouds/precip. With a strong LLJ, leaned high on winds and with convective precip, swayed a bit on the higher side too. Don't have much to lose at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 67/48/31/0.55 No confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 70/49/33/0.60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 69/49/35/0.57". They just managed to hit 31kts off a shower, and winds should be pretty strong tomorrow. If they can get in an actual thunderstorm, I'm fairly confident they'll hit 35-40kts. Everything else is a giant question mark. There should be a pretty solid window between WAA rain during the afternoon tomorrow. Can't imagine they stay fully overcast the entire time, and any breaks during peak heating should get them to near 70 if not higher. Cold front will come through right before 6z, and I felt pretty confident around 49F, although I could see lower. Precip is just kind of a guess. Most rain tonight will fall before 6z (I think, but who knows), but they'll probably have a few tenths by late morning. Any convection should drop a quick quarter inch or more, but those can be hit or miss. Perhaps I shouldn't have been so aggressive on Day 7 the last city, but I feel alright about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 67/50/32/0.60" No idea. Spent 30ish minutes toying with different numbers, but decided to just go with my original thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 70/46/31/0.57 The Euro showed them clearing out during the late afternoon so definitely feel 70 is achievable with 900 mb temps around 11.5C. Went cold on the low with CAA beginning around 03z according to GFS MOS although NAM is later with the wind shift so I'm not feeling that confident but decided to take a risk after today's precip. debacle which luckily is subdued by the 0.06 mean. Winds should definitely get to arond 30 kts with 35 + kts within 1000 feet of the ground. Precip. had no real reasoning, just went sort of conservative. 12z GFS showed big storms tomorrow afternoon but CAPE only around 500 J/kg so that seems unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 65/50/32/0.64" This was a really tough call im not sure what to think will happen tomorrow High could go higher but am unsure between how much clearing and timing of the next precip batch which is another thing for precip. Seems im right around what people were thinking for the low. Winds could see higher but with the shower as someone stated we saw a 31 knot wind so who knows if it could go stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I went 66/48/32/0.45. Everything was happening earlier than modeled and HRRR wasn't showing much after 6z, which is why I took a gamble by going low on precip. Because I was going with "everything earlier" logic, I also thought cold front was passing through before 6z and it'll get cold enough to make my 48 work. The high, I just went middle of the road. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 With convection now forming I see we get a quick spike but as to how much clearing after is the question Temps behind convection look mid 60s and the winds should be high with a line. With .13 in I could see maybe another half inch come in with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 With convection now forming I see we get a quick spike but as to how much clearing after is the question Temps behind convection look mid 60s and the winds should be high with a line. With .13 in I could see maybe another half inch come in with this We're at 0.27" for the day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Well GFS was right about the storms. I had a feeling I was going to crumble this week because I got lucky on the low a couple times last week and lucky on the wind since I nailed it three of the four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Only 0.05" from second wave (as of 6:07 EDT). There's a line to west so we'll probably pick up another 0.05-0.2" or so. What a luck that FWA avoided a deep convection storm during the second wave. EDIT: and the line is falling apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 54/40/17/0.05 Meh. Like I mentioned, totally melted this week. Didn't give this forecast much effort. Went above the USL because it looked like they should have sunny breaks during the afternoon which I figure should counteract CAA at the beginning of April but who knows. Went above the USL for the low too because it looked like dew points would be on the high side. Winds should still be pretty strong right at 06z so took the over on them. Instability tomorrow afternoon will lead to some scattered showers and perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 52/39/14/0.00. Evidently I didn't type in my precip amount which was supposed to be 0.08". Thankfully, I think I've locked in my cumulative place for the year, and should have a bye to get adjusted to Huntsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 52/38/18/0.04" Went with a no-risk forecast that I figured would be around consensus (and is). No reason to take a chance. I'm sitting at 25th cumulative overall, so short of a total bombed or risky forecast, I should be able to hold onto a week 1 tourney bye. Kinda surprised by the low rain today, but thankfully I put 0.60", so it's not hurting me too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 54/38/18/0.02 Also surprised at how low precipitation was today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 56/37/18/0.07 It's really down to the wire for me. If it gets down to 48F or lower by 06z tonight, which I think is reasonable, then I will be sitting in 3rd place category 2 overall. But then, only 0.3 points in this city will separate me from 4th place (jeo618 at uok, who has been ahead of me for most of this city). That means it all comes down to tomorrow. Here's our forecasts side by side tomorrow: 56/37/18/0.07 53/38/17/0.05 Very close except for the high. If the high is 56F or higher, I win. If it's 53F or lower, I lose. If it's in between, then it comes down to the other variables. EDIT: Turns out if it's 53F or lower for the high (which is looking more and more likely), I can actually still eke out the win at the third decimal with a 37F or lower, an 18 or higher, AND a 0.07 or higher. Tough sell, but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 52/38/16/0.03 This forecast is for a trophy in Category 3 and a spot inside Top 20 overall for the year. I'm well locked in the tournament with a bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I think I'm probably hosed. The high looks almost certain to be 53F or lower at this point, and so only the following scenario will get me that third place cat 2 trophy. A very, very long shot. EDIT: Turns out if it's 53F or lower for the high (which is looking more and more likely), I can actually still eke out the win at the third decimal with a 37F or lower, an 18 or higher, AND a 0.07 or higher. Tough sell, but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 With the final numbers in from yesterday, I'll finish 2nd in Category 4 for the year and should have a 5 seed in the tournament regardless of what happens today. Good luck to you Mallow! It's always possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 With the final numbers in from yesterday, I'll finish 2nd in Category 4 for the year and should have a 5 seed in the tournament regardless of what happens today. Good luck to you Mallow! It's always possible! Thanks! I got my precip, at least. Now it's down to the wind and tonight's low. Unless I can manage a 54F by some miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I think I'm probably hosed. The high looks almost certain to be 53F or lower at this point, and so only the following scenario will get me that third place cat 2 trophy. A very, very long shot. The 17kt climo pretty much crushed my hopes. I know we have a slight chance of another wind surge with tonight's front/band, but I'd need that PLUS the low of 37F or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 The 17kt climo pretty much crushed my hopes. I know we have a slight chance of another wind surge with tonight's front/band, but I'd need that PLUS the low of 37F or lower. Well I somehow managed to get the wind with the band. Huge nail-biter now--I need it to drop to 37F within the next two hours. 38F and I lose, 37F and I win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 The wind managed to spike to 20kts. FWA was my drop city. Not the best showing, but ended up 44th overall for the one semester that I participated and 3rd among Category 0 participants. Can't complain too much. Hopefully I can participate for the entire contest in 2016-17/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Not sure if any other people saw this but.. The WxChallenge Tournament begins on Monday with the Wild Card Round. Check the bracket for updates and seedings. All are welcome to forecast and NEW THIS YEAR, top scores at the end of the 4-week period will receive special Tournament Site awards. Thus, even if you do not qualify for the tournament ... or get knocked out, keep forecasting as the best scores in each category at the end of the 4-week period will receive special awards. In other words ... WxChallenge is not over, the post-season is about to begin and EVERYONE is eligible to participate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 66/43/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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