H2Otown_WX Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Already down to 40, this CAA ain't messin' around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 46/26/20/0 Very not confident, especially about the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 49/30/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 FWA's winds SHOULD be 29kts today. 15kts to start off the midnight-midnight period for winds Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Very interested to see how the remainder of the day plays out. I'd imagine low clouds are the culprit right now, which hasn't let FWA rise at all. Currently at 35 at 16z. I'd be very impressed if they manage to hit anything higher than 48F at this point. Latest HRRR run peaks at 45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Very interested to see how the remainder of the day plays out. I'd imagine low clouds are the culprit right now, which hasn't let FWA rise at all. Currently at 35 at 16z. I'd be very impressed if they manage to hit anything higher than 48F at this point. Latest HRRR run peaks at 45F Seems like they should break soon. High pressure just about overhead. Temps probably won't make it to 50 but hey it is spring and the winds are calming. We will know by 5 today whether they make it another 14 degrees or not. Not too unheard of many places into about IL are starting to show low to mid 40s we will see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Yeah, not looking good at all for the higher highs like mine. I totally neglected the fact that being under the surface high would really limit the mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 That 30F low really hurt my chances of getting an overall cat 2 trophy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Not so good, below the national consensus now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Climo has 44/30/18/0. Last week should be filled with plenty of risky forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2016 Author Share Posted March 26, 2016 Man, the last two days hurt me. As of right now I'd need to get into the tournament via a wild card birth. I normally don't care much for week 2 of cities that I'm doing badly in, but if I can claw above consensus for FWA I may still salvage a first round bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Man, the last two days hurt me. As of right now I'd need to get into the tournament via a wild card birth. I normally don't care much for week 2 of cities that I'm doing badly in, but if I can claw above consensus for FWA I may still salvage a first round bye. Yeah, I'm basically in the same situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 26, 2016 Share Posted March 26, 2016 Tomorrow would have been a fun day to forecast for FWA, especially with precip and winds... MET MOS has winds up to 31 knots at 06z MON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 54/28/12 Was tempted to go lower on the low, but I'm not sure how much they're going to be able to fall through their dew points, and winds may stay up just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 56/26/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 52/28/10 Overall, a similar setup to the 25th, when high pressure was overhead and poor low-level mixing resulted in highs being close to the model consensus (ECMWF/SREF were too warm). As mentioned above, based on dew-point trends, didn't go too low for the minimum temperature. I did find it interesting that the 2.5km RGEM dipped temperatures down to 24F, but I have no idea how that model has verified recently at FWA... I don't see winds going too high with high pressure in place, but still went slightly above guidance based on verification trends last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 54/30/10/0 Thought about pushing it to 55 on the high, but I'm right on the edge of a first round tourney bye, so I'd rather wait till the precip days to take more chances. Low was a tough call. Lack of clouds and low winds made me want to put 28-29, but with dew points in the low 30s I went a little higher. Kinda thinking 29 would have been a better call, but I don't see the low tanking too much below 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 53/27/11 As Quincy mentioned, looks about the same as Friday in fact 850s look almost identical (-1 to -2C) except instead of lapse rates of 5.8 C/km it looks like they'll mix a lot better with something close to the DALR. Given that, I'd say somewhere between 52 and 54 is likely. Went with the USL for the low as this seems like a night where they should drop pretty far although the high dews are concerning. The wind should be light during the day but it looked like could get some really trong winds just off the deck tomorrow night so I figured they might have a chance to tap into a bit of that although the inversion does look strong on NAM BUFKIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 53/30/10/0. Model consensus on the high. Wanted to go a bit cooler on the low but I just didn't see them dropping unless winds die off completely, which I don't think they'll do. A good day for consensus will probably help me overall for the cumulative scoring, so I'm OK with this. Late week is going to be very stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 53/27/10 Unfortunately really messed up to gain spots in the wild card. Good luck to those in contention for getting into the tourney. This second half really got me this year but glad I did much much better than last year will continue to better myself at forecasting in various cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 53/27/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Even with the 2F intra hour drop earlier this morning, the low only managed to drop to 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 Damn. I had 30 initially because the dews were running higher than modeled during the afternoon, and bumped down when they dropped to near what the NAM MOS had by 0z. Bad call by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Damn. I had 30 initially because the dews were running higher than modeled during the afternoon, and bumped down when they dropped to near what the NAM MOS had by 0z. Bad call by me Yep, I had started at 29 myself and bumped down based on the lower guidance (especially the HiRes NAM, which is rarely too low, but was last night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 67/32/28/0.10 Was very tempted to go higher (68-70) on the high, but I don't have the cajones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 65/35/28/0 This city never gives an easy day. I was waffling on the high, originally had 65 then changed it to 67 and then back to 65 at the last second. I just felt like clouds would prevent them from climbing quite as high as they did last Wednesday but I could easily see another over-modeled cloud forecast and temperatures busting high as they often have here. Dew points don't look low enough for them to drop below 35 and with some clouds and a bit of a SE breeze I'm hoping for the low to stay on the warmer side as it did last night. Wind looked like it would get quite strong after 00z with 30 kts not too far from the ground so felt comfortable with 28 kts. I didn't see any significant height falls until after 00z but with FWA still on the edge of the 500-700 ridge axis, elected to go dry as any lift looked disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 65/34/27/0.02". A very middle of the road approach for tomorrow. A few hi-res WRF runs had them approaching 68-70F, but I just didn't feel confident enough about it. If clouds are a bit delayed or overmodeled than I could easily see them hitting 70. They won't manage a strong inversion tonight and southeast winds favor a warmer low. Strong WAA towards the end of the day tomorrow, but I don't feel particularly confident that they'll get much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 65/34/29/0.03 Was tempted to push the high up, but wasn't confident with cloud timing, and really just trying to hold onto my cumulative position the remainder of the week. Low seems plausible with dew points and if the wind picks up earlier. Dunno really on precipitation. Didn't have tons of time to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 68/35/27/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 65/34/30/0.03 I was half tempted to go higher on precip because it looked like it would stand a chance with convection but decided a middle ground would be good. With the radar looking like it does it seems like a close call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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