OHweather Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 With broken or overcast skies and a decent SW breeze all night except for one hour this morning, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I wouldn't ever forecast a 21F drop off of the high in a place like FWA on a night like that. Oh well though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 This quite the city so far. Just after 9 am out there already 56 after hitting 44 a few hours before. Winds should start going soon observed to the sw are picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 With broken or overcast skies and a decent SW breeze all night except for one hour this morning, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I wouldn't ever forecast a 21F drop off of the high in a place like FWA on a night like that. Oh well though It's seems like the surface front was the biggest issue areas just to the north of it are still a bit cooler just wasn't sure if it would get that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 With broken or overcast skies and a decent SW breeze all night except for one hour this morning, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I wouldn't ever forecast a 21F drop off of the high in a place like FWA on a night like that. Oh well though 5am observations, when KFWA read 44. Unfortunately KFWA doesn't plot on this map, but there are only one or two other stations in the region that are even close to that 44. Here in Muncie we were 56 at the same time. They still seemed south of the front, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 And we're already at 63F. Today is very strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 And we're already at 63F. Today is very strangeI'll admit I didn't have a lot of time to analyze the forecast last night, but maybe a cloud-cover bust? I know MOS was showing OVC, but they've had some breaks today. Thermal profiles aloft are similar to yesterday. A more difficult than expected city so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I'll admit I didn't have a lot of time to analyze the forecast last night, but maybe a cloud-cover bust? I know MOS was showing OVC, but they've had some breaks today. Thermal profiles aloft are similar to yesterday. A more difficult than expected city so far...Possibly. Most models really underdid mixing last night, and so they probably are mixing down the same temperatures as yesterday. Potentially the same thing tomorrow? Warm sectors here always seem to be underdone especially in the spring. Glad I didn't go with the 4km NAMs 55 high though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 The biggest cause of today's high bust is definitely the lack of low clouds. Models like the NAM and GFS were virtually assuring that there would be a thick layer of low clouds starting in the morning and lasting all day. Now it looks as if the low clouds will hold off for several more hours yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Climo has 68F as the high. Only a couple degrees off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Possibly. Most models really underdid mixing last night, and so they probably are mixing down the same temperatures as yesterday. Potentially the same thing tomorrow? Warm sectors here always seem to be underdone especially in the spring. Glad I didn't go with the 4km NAMs 55 high though Lol, it's funny you mention that because I was looking at it too last night but I went back to see how it did for Day 1 and it was about 5 degrees too cool. Today about 10 degrees too cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 But looking at the drop to 51 at 3z, it may very well not have been a mistake! Oops. Suggestions (from models, but how reliable are they?) are that winds will pick up again a bit before 6z, so hopefully for the rest of us that's correct and it doesn't keep falling so much. Here in Muncie, about an hour south, our winds are over 10 mph and it's still 59 this hour, and elsewhere in NE Indiana/NW Ohio it's at least 55-57, so I'm not sure what's going on there at FWA other than winds are dying down much more quickly. 23 miles north of KFWA, at KGWB, it's still 57, but winds are also around 5 knots. Weird, I guess they had breaks in the clouds? I wasn't up to monitor the satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 66/36/30/0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 66/34/28/0.88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 64/40/25/0.53 Barely had any time to analyze the forecast, so a bit rushed... Seems to be two camps for precip, either high (near an inch) or less, (near or somewhat below 1/2 inch). I hedged lower, but not super high confidence in doing so. The high temperature is a variable I wish I had more time to look at, to see if it spikes again, or if clouds/precip hold temperatures down a bit. The low should be at 06z FRI, so it will be fun to see how low it drops. Winds, could easily make a case to go higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2016 Author Share Posted March 24, 2016 64/37/32/0.90" Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 64/38/29/0.97" Trophies are won these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 64/37/29/0.63 Each day seems to get harder to forecast at this place, especially given how bad guidance has been on the high and too a lesser extent (mostly the USL) the low. Looked like 900 mb temps. would be about 1.5C higher than today but with lapse rates much lower I figured it should be about 2C cooler than today. Of course that didn't work out so great today but I'm pretty confident they'll have more cloud cover tomorrow but with WAA it wouldn't surprise me to see them get higher. Winds looked impressive and the GFS is aggressive with two tri-hourlies of 23 kts on MOS. I definitely considered going over 30 kts but decided to go a little lower given that mixing is usually better on CAA. Hedged lower than the USL and MOS on the low since CAA is often underdone in these situations with such a sharp front. I'm thinking it'll be anywhere from 34 to 39. Precip. is always the wild card. This is a potent system that's strengthening as it moves toward FWA and PWATs will be up around 1.25" so I could see a line that goes bonkers like the GFS shows but I didn't want to go that gung ho given that the Euro wasn't nearly as bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 64/37/27/0.64 Honestly was not sure on all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 63/38/25/0.65 Only 60 so far. Yet another curve thrown by this town... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 I wonder if they will gain a couple degrees on the 22z ob. because it looks like they are about to clear out before the CAA. It's pretty late though so I don't know. They did hit the high on the 22 ob. on Day 1. Edit: Nvm, fail. And they got more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Well that was fun not too far off. So far high was a little lower than expected glad i didnt go too high. Winds will probably end around 26 or so knots. And rainfall if added correct should be around .74" Not a bad day. 60/49(so far)/22(so far)/0.74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Today was more of "par" for me and got me into Top 100 if the low is below 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 55/29/20/0 Could make an argument for higher winds but felt to play easy with that since they look to die down soon after 6z. Now im not sure what MOS was trying to show for tomorrow but most models showed atleast low 50's being attained some went even as high as upper 50's felt mid ground should be good with a bit of ridging that sets up with virtually clear skies. Low was the tricky one as to when winds would slow down and if there would be clouds or not to hold them higher. I feel we might either see it tonight or even a slight chance tomorrow but could have also made the argument to go lower on this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 55/29/20/0 Could make an argument for higher winds but felt to play easy with that since they look to die down soon after 6z. Now im not sure what MOS was trying to show for tomorrow but most models showed atleast low 50's being attained some went even as high as upper 50's felt mid ground should be good with a bit of ridging that sets up with virtually clear skies. Low was the tricky one as to when winds would slow down and if there would be clouds or not to hold them higher. I feel we might either see it tonight or even a slight chance tomorrow but could have also made the argument to go lower on this as well. Tomorrow is a goofy day when the MAV MOS, which has been decent this week, shows a high of just 40F. On the other hand, SREF/EC have upper 40s. Given the thermal profile aloft, I could see temperatures sneak to 50+, but I didn't go that high. 48/30/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 50/28/19 See two opportunities to get the low, one being tonight with the push of strong CAA and the other being tomorrow night with clear skies and calm winds. I'm thinking the former is more likely than the latter mainly because it appears dew points won't be that low tomorrow night. Took the over on the high since they got to 20C with 10C 900 mb temps. yesterday I figured they can make it to 10C with 0C 900 mb temps. The caveat there is the lower mixing heights and thus potentially not having steep enough lapse rates. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Tomorrow is a goofy day when the MAV MOS, which has been decent this week, shows a high of just 40F. On the other hand, SREF/EC have upper 40s. Given the thermal profile aloft, I could see temperatures sneak to 50+, but I didn't go that high. 48/30/20/0 I fear i may have gone a little too high but a lot of what i was seeing looked to be atleast low 50's. oh well ill still be holding decent if the high is not as high. if it does manage to get there then looks good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 47/30/21/0 With any lack of clouds and mixing I could see the high hitting 50+ but I didn't feel confident enough to push it. Good CAA tonight should at least push FWA into the lower 30s, and if wind dies down enough (and maybe some cloud breaks) I could see it diving into the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 45/29/18/0.00. A big gamble to end the week. Just wasn't feeling the warm high but I've seen sites around here spike up very quickly on days like tomorrow. We'll see if it pays off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 45/29/18/0.00. A big gamble to end the week. Just wasn't feeling the warm high but I've seen sites around here spike up very quickly on days like tomorrow. We'll see if it pays off Models supporting a lower max temp: MAV - 40 MET - 41 LAMP - 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 47/29/19/0 Decided to push it a bit with both the high and the low in order to reach for a tourney bye seed. Like cold camp forecasters are saying, strong CAA and the possibility of clouds thinning out in the morning with winds dying down gave me enough confidence to go for it given this site's history of going slightly below models. I took the middle road on the high between two camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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