Quincy Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 We may get a wind spike with the climo report. Hourlies show a max of 13kt, but gusts have reached into the 20s, including a gust to 27kt so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 And unless there's any significant changes, climo's 60/34/18/0.00. So close yet so far. Oh well, on to Fort Wayne, which will probably the closest station to my hometown as I'll ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 And unless there's any significant changes, climo's 60/34/18/0.00. So close yet so far. Oh well, on to Fort Wayne, which will probably the closest station to my hometown as I'll ever see. What place did you come in overall? I came in 25th, best finish since Burbank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 What place did you come in overall? I came in 25th, best finish since Burbank. 21st, and 20th overall for the cumulative standings. I think my best finish was 15th at MSY earlier this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 63/35/28/0 Welcome to Fort Wayne! Expecting the models to be underestimating the warmth tomorrow, given observed highs vs. model guidance today upstream and MOS bias toward climo. The temperature is already down to 42F as of 00z... sided close to HRRR/LAMP for the overnight low and not as low as MOS, though not as mild as USL. Winds could be an opportunity area, but we'll see how high they go - decided to go conservative for day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 60/36/29/0 Managed to finish top 100 for BKW which was nice. Still maintaining my goal of beating consensus every city, so only one more to go! Not sure what to expect in FWA. Was tempted to push the high up a little bit, but I always play it safe on the first day or two... Hoping I can maintain a 1st round bye into the tourney for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 60/35/28 I was thinking 60-62 for the high with MOS bias and assumed consensus would be 58 or 59 so I took it easy as I usually do on D1 and D2. Nope. Surprised at consensus of 37 given how cold FWA went last two nights, but I'll take it. Of course, all of these values could be conservative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 22, 2016 Author Share Posted March 22, 2016 64/38/29/0 Based on potential temps on the NAM and GFS, and sun and wind promoting fairly deep mixing with 850mb temps rising to near +6C, thought most guidance was pretty low on the high. Due to a tight pressure gradient tonight I see them struggling to decouple, and some clouds will move overhead. I think temps may start rising by 6z as SW winds increase so despite the nice drop last hour I kept my low mild. Although the GFS suggests 30+ knot winds, the pressure gradient isn't that tight and WAA regimes don't tend to support the best momentum transport. There should be enough sun for good mixing though so it's a bit of a tough call. The NAM always seems to do better with the BL winds than the GFS and it suggested max sustained would be a few under 30. Given these factors I leaned less than 30 but can see it busting by a few either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 63/34/32/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 61/36/27 Ended up being around the USL even without looking at it although I'll admit I adjusted my low upward after seeing it. I am most worried about the high as I could definitely see them getting to around 65 with enough sun. 900 mb temps were around 0C and they got to 49 today and are forecast to be near 8C tomorrow. The low is a bit of a question mark as well. I missed the WAA initially when I looked which is why I ended up having to adjust it upward. Winds looked impressive with 30 kts in the BL so figured 27 kts at the surface is feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 62/35/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 62/36/27/0.00. 850mb temps should be about 7-8C warmer than yesterday, which gave me enough comfort to go 62 on the high. Followed HRRR on the low which hopefully will happen right at 6z before the warming starts up again. Winds are a question mark as climo suggests they can hit 30kts fairly well with SSW winds. Still in a battle for the top spot in Cat 4, so hopefully KFWA is nice to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Whoops, should've left my original low of 33 alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Latest HRRR brings FWA up to 68F today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 22, 2016 Author Share Posted March 22, 2016 Giant fail for me on the low. Need 64+ to cancel that out for me today. If we hit 68 that would be impressive considering MOS only had mid-upper 50s yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Looking like the high is gonna be around 65F or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Darn, saw all the writing on the wall yesterday but didn't pull the trigger. Oh well, just one day with lots of precip. on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 62/52/24/0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 62/52/21/0.04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 60/51/22/0.08" Bet if we get 20+kt winds it would be in the midnight-6z time period so took a gamble. HRRR had 17kt winds for a brief time which seemed OK. Low should be in the 50s but a brief calm period tomorrow morning may drop them to 50 or so. Couldn't find the support for 61/62 as they mix much lower and temps in the mixed layer should be about 2-3C cooler (5F) and adjusted that way. Precip was a toss up. Started the week well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 61/50/21/0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 61/47/20/0.03 Difficult forecast, very unsure about pretty much all variables. Hoping they can get some breaks of sun tomorrow and with WAA figured they can get above 60F again. The cloud shield looked like it may have some breaks tonight which is why I have a colder low than most. It seems this place drops pretty easily if they can decouple and get those breaks. I have to say though, looking at infrared, that was probably a mistake lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 63/52/24/0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 So much for that warm low tonight... argh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 61/47/20/0.03 Difficult forecast, very unsure about pretty much all variables. Hoping they can get some breaks of sun tomorrow and with WAA figured they can get above 60F again. The cloud shield looked like it may have some breaks tonight which is why I have a colder low than most. It seems this place drops pretty easily if they can decouple and get those breaks. I have to say though, looking at infrared, that was probably a mistake lol. But looking at the drop to 51 at 3z, it may very well not have been a mistake! Oops. Suggestions (from models, but how reliable are they?) are that winds will pick up again a bit before 6z, so hopefully for the rest of us that's correct and it doesn't keep falling so much. Here in Muncie, about an hour south, our winds are over 10 mph and it's still 59 this hour, and elsewhere in NE Indiana/NW Ohio it's at least 55-57, so I'm not sure what's going on there at FWA other than winds are dying down much more quickly. 23 miles north of KFWA, at KGWB, it's still 57, but winds are also around 5 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 FWA continues the drop now to 50F. This isn't great, but there's still 2 hours for them to warm back up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Day 1: 62/36/30 Day 2: 62/49/25/0.07" Was thinking about going lower but it will be close saw it was only a small period before they rise. Not sure about winds but felt high would be warmer surprised how well it warmed today. Precipitation is the tough part whether they get closer to the front which will also play a role in the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Down to 49 with 7kt winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Down to 49 with 7kt winds 48 at 5z. Yet here in Muncie, 54 miles away, we still are at 58 at 5z. The past 3-4 hours, KFWA has been the coolest station in Indiana by at least 4-5 degrees, including nearby stations in northeast Indiana. Even all stations from Lansing southward in Michigan (except along the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline) were 52-54+ last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 44 for the low. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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