H2Otown_WX Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Well that escalated quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 65/49/20/0.00" Today wasn't great, hopefully tomorrow will be better. Abysmal. Climo has 73F as a high and 23kt winds. I'll still be in the top 100, but this week has not treated me well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Well at least I can say I'm consistent if I manage to do well the next two days it can put me into a better spot was not expecting it to go this high that's what you get for not looking at the models correctly. Have to start focusing more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 62/43/20 Given recent trends, went warmer with the high than my initial thinking and assuming clouds don't get in the way, they should have no problem getting above 60. The low is a bit of a wild card (06z FRI), as I was tempted to go a touch warmer, but decided to hold off given the thermal profile. (if they radiate, they'll fall quick) Could have gone higher on winds too, but the pressure gradient looks a bit less steep than it was today. A moderate confidence forecast and hopefully a shot at redemption after busting badly on today's high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 63/41/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 62/42/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 61/40/17 Went less on winds see how that plays out and low was thinking winds would die off tomorrow night and they would radiate decently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 62/42/23/0 Winds look just as strong as it was today... if not stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 64/42/20 Another interesting forecast at BKW. I was tempted to go lower on the high but upon further inspection, 850s are progged to be about 2C cooler than today. Assuming lapse rates are a bit less steep but still fairly close to where they were today (which was actually around 12C/km to 850 mb) then they should reach 63 or 64. I just couldn't find a physical reason why they would get to 54 at noon as the USL showed but then only go up three more degrees the rest of the day under full sun and what looked to be pretty weak CAA. The low looks like it will be at 06z tomorrow as I figure they have a chance to tank quickly with lighter winds and a cooler air mass than tonight. Went a little lower on winds than today because it looked, as Quincy mentioned, that they wouldn't have quite the same gradient as today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 62/41/20/0.00" Tempted to change all of them a bit higher, but stuck with it for now. We'll see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 64/42/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 61/42/22 should have went 2-3 degrees higher for the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 We managed a 6z low of 49F last night, which was the lone bright spot in my forecast yesterday. Keeps me in the hunt for a trophy at least. Looks like the low will be at least 41F for today. High and wind will be very important this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Now I kinda wish I went a little higher in winds and the high oh well it actually doesn't hurt me today one more shot to get a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 62/41/23 for today only thing i see is maybe the low might go lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Been doing this for five years, and still never had a perfect forecast... today ties the closest I've come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 60/37/16 Hoping for a strong finish on the last day. It only took me like 6-7 days to figure this place out... The only somewhat questionable thing may be the low tonight. If winds go light and they decouple, temperatures could go a bit lower, as they briefly did this morning. Went a little high on the winds given how the past couple of days have verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 60/33/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 61/36/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 62/36/14 Decided to take a gamble on the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 60/36/14 figured winds be a little less but that was my folly today. Think winds nose dive and we get radiation all cooling. Hopefully can finish in the top 100 for this city after will be at 149 overall with even my bad forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Been doing this for five years, and still never had a perfect forecast... today ties the closest I've come. I was only ever close last year in Laramie was off by one knot. I'm not sure but I think the first day was darn near perfect. It's tough especially these mountain towns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 60/35/15 Looks like 850s will be about 1C cooler than today so hence the high of 60F. Wasn't too sure about the low, look like they'll be on the edge of a cirrus shield for a good part of the night but it looked like they should be clear in the pre-dawn hours say 3 or 4 to 7 am I think that's when they'll have a really good chance to get into the mid 30's or maybe even a little lower with dews in the mid 20's. The winds looked to be about 17 kts at the top of the BL so I figured they should mix about 90% of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 59/36/17/0.00. With today's 23kt winds, I am 2.3 and 2.4 points behind first/second place. The two people ahead of me have the following: 60/38/16/0.00 62/35/16/0.00 Its possible for me to beat either with a perfect max/min forecast, but overall if the high temperature is 59F or lower, I think I can manage a trophy regardless. In a perfect world, tomorrow could be the city I win back to back cities in Cat4, but it's a longshot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Tanked to 41F this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Clearly somehow I messed up my temp for my high shows 56 had 59 at first and was changing it 60 but now it's 56 my luck... Who knows maybe it might help lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 We're about 2F cooler than yesterday at this point. This will come down to the wire... a 59F or lower high will give me a trophy, combine it with 17kt + winds and I could win Cat 4 outright. Hopefully there's no 60F max! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 We're about 2F cooler than yesterday at this point. This will come down to the wire... a 59F or lower high will give me a trophy, combine it with 17kt + winds and I could win Cat 4 outright. Hopefully there's no 60F max! There were quite a few more convective clouds already forming this time yesterday. On top of that, the weaker winds today may help the surface go a little super-adiabatic. I'm definitely not convinced of my 62 today (though I also haven't ruled it out)... but I do think the high will be 60-62. If so, hopefully you can get your 17kts so that you can at least get a trophy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 60/35/15 I won't win a trophy here but I've edged up into a first round bye, assuming I do OK at FWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 There were quite a few more convective clouds already forming this time yesterday. On top of that, the weaker winds today may help the surface go a little super-adiabatic. I'm definitely not convinced of my 62 today (though I also haven't ruled it out)... but I do think the high will be 60-62. If so, hopefully you can get your 17kts so that you can at least get a trophy! At this time, I'm thinking 60F is the most likely high (45%), followed by 61F (25%), 59 (20%), and 62 (10%). EDIT: Hrm, I was not expecting 58F again this hour. Well now my odds are changed. 40% each to 59F and 60F, 10% to 58F, and 10% to 61F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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