H2Otown_WX Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 I guess I reverse psychology'd my way to a good day pending the low. It looks like they may get into the 40s with mostly clear skies for the next couple hours. A side note, the 12z GFS has been killing it on the high here, just a single point of error through week 1. It'll be interesting to see if it continues to have the hot hand next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 53 so far through 3z. Winds were 13kts on climo, so another good day for me. Depending on the low I'll be top 10 overall heading into the start of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Final low appears to be 51F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 19th overall after week 1. Having 0 error points on precip certainly helps, especially since my temperature forecasts have been questionable. My 52 for the low was complete luck, I thought the warm advection would kick in sooner. Phillipe has a huge lead in Cat-2 with the Wisconsin guy who won El Paso in 2nd. That's going to be tough competition to catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 final day 4 precip should be 0.04, not 0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2016 Author Share Posted March 12, 2016 For Friday I had 66/51/15/0.16" I forecast rather early and went high on precip and that hurt me. I'm around 25th overall heading into week two. I've strung together a few decent cities this semester so I'm hoping the trend continues into the tournament next month. May be my last shot at it unless I decide to do grad school at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 not sure whats going on at KBKW today but somehow they got to 75 w/o an hourly ob greater than 70 between 12z - 18z today. Just seems kind of sketchy to me .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 69/52/15/0.00". Wasn't confident enough to deviate too much from the mean on temps. I'd imagine they get some nice winds around midnight tonight. Precip I wasn't confident on but the HRRR has been pretty quick to clear out right around 6z tonight. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 70/51/14/0.04 For the high, used NAM BUFKIT but ended up getting what 12z GFS MOS is forecasting. Given how good it's been there it's hard to go against the hot hand. Low 50's was USL consensus on the low but I could certainly see how it ends up a bit cooler. BUFKIT showed the opportunty to mix around 15 kts to the surface so went in that neighborhood. Used the trusty RAP for precip. and it looked like they'd have a few lingering showers after 06z so decided to put some precip. but to not go as aggressive as the USL. The thing that worries me is the convective nature of the precip. could make it very "all or nothing." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcontinelli Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 68/51/11/0.02 I hope the wind won't hurt me too much. Maybe have under forecasted the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 72/49/14/0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 70/51/15/0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 70/51/12/0.03" Meant to put 13 for the wind, but oh well. Only a knot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 68/50/14/0.06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 68/52/12/0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 68/54/14/0.03 Looks like I'm a little off on the low and precip already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 70/51/15/0.06 My original numbers were 65/53/15/0.08, but then I looked at a couple analogs and that shifted things around a bit. I hope I don't regret that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 My original numbers were 65/53/15/0.08, but then I looked at a couple analogs and that shifted things around a bit. I hope I don't regret that... Yeah I'm not too sure about clouds today that will be the bid decider for the high I can see them clearing out later but it might be a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 68/52/14/0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Climo in: 69/53/13/0.08 Tomorrow's forecast should allow for some difference of opinion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Climo in: 69/53/13/0.08 Tomorrow's forecast should allow for some difference of opinion... They put up that climo high early again. Wouldn't be surprised if they tickled 70 with the 00z 6-hourly max, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 67/48/19/0.01 MOS is warmer than the USL and decided to lean toward the higher numbers, even though CAA has me a little bit skeptical. The low should be at/near 06z THU, it's just a matter of how quick they can fall. For precip, I threw a hundreth in there for good measure. Seems like precipitation will be convective in nature, so could be nothing or could be a quick burst. Overall, not a super high confidence forecast. The high did end up being 70 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 69/48/21/0 Very not-confident in the high tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 70 high was a killer for me today...shouldn't have messed with my numbers at the last minute. 66/46/21/0.02 for tomorrow. I have a hard time seeing upper-60s with a frontal passage and potentially some precip in the morning. Tomorrow night should be chilly and I doubt MOS is dropping the temps fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 67/48/21/0 Challenging forecast for every variable. I wanted to go with the 12z GFS MOS since it again nailed the high today but I just couldn't see how it would get to 71 unless they have lapse rate to 800 mb of like 12C/km or something. Then the precip. factor, assuming it is scattered in nature I didn't want to risk putting anything. The wind was probably easiest, 20+kts to right around 500 feet AGL on BUFKIT so figured they shouldn't have any problem getting over 20 kts to the surface. I could see it being even a little higher than what I put as they do well on west winds. I really wanted to have the low tank but it looked like winds might prevent them from dropping as much as they would in a calmer regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 67/47/21/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 65/49/20/0.00" Today wasn't great, hopefully tomorrow will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 terrible day for me dropping from 6th to 31st .. hopefully tmrw will turn things around 69/48/23/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I was wondering if this might happen--the high might actually come from the surge of warm air along the front. Also wishing I had stuck with my original 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 Went 67/49/20 Ugh on the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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