ma blizzard Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 75/52/17/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 74/55/16/0.07 Didn't have much time to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 74/53/16/0.09 Definitely a trickier forecast than I thought at first glance. I really figured clouds would keep temps up tonight but it's possible they'll get breaks and we all know they tank quick. The Euro has them getting into the 40s so that wouldn't be surprising. It looked like both NAM and GFS had quite a bit of afternoon cloudiness so I didn't want to go quite as high as today. The wind I initially had at 20 kts but then backed off to 16 because their best mixing potential is at night and they don't seem to get very high winds on a SW flow. If they get convective cell then they could probably get to 20 kts or so though. As far as precip. I always tend to side with the quicker model when it comes to a cold FROPA. Hence I sided with the GFS here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 74/56/16/0.09" Reading through everyone's forecast pretty much covers mine. Clouds look like they should be more abundant today, so I was a bit more comfortable with a 74 high. Could easily go higher if there's a long enough break though. Same reasoning on the low, only obviously the opposite way. Precip is a tossup based on timing, but I busted the low so badly today that why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 75/52/18/0 I suspect they will plunge to the low-50s and then recover as the night goes on. Based on the low dew points right now, I'm afraid of being too warm. Also went with the Euro for precip, and with the decaying trend as the precip approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 So far they can't decouple with southerlies around 5 kts. Three straight obs. of 65F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 10, 2016 Author Share Posted March 10, 2016 We had no trouble falling to 50 up in Athens in SE Ohio after a high of 75 with no fewer clouds than Beckley. Such is life I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Well now let's see how warm it gets and rains? Winds don't really seem to be wanting to get cranking yet so that's another thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Up to 75°F, but a batch of thicker clouds is moving in this hour. Wouldn't be surprised if it's 74°F next hour, and then 76°F the following hour, with an inter-hourly a high of 77°F. Also wouldn't be surprised if all three of those were higher by a degree (75°F next hour again, 77°F the following, and a high of 78°F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Up to 75°F, but a batch of thicker clouds is moving in this hour. Wouldn't be surprised if it's 74°F next hour, and then 76°F the following hour, with an inter-hourly a high of 77°F. Also wouldn't be surprised if all three of those were higher by a degree (75°F next hour again, 77°F the following, and a high of 78°F).I still think rain call might have been a good one really building to the west. I highly doubt I'll get rain up here before they do down their but weird things happen and so much for the high.I think what is throwing me with highs here is no vegetation we are maximizing Temps with such ridging in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 76/56/15 as of the afternoon climo report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 And we got 77F. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 65/50/14/0.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 68/51/14/0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 65/50/13/0.10 The temperature just collapsed to 60F this hour (13F drop since 23z), so I nudged the low toward the cooler end of the spectrum. That also allows for breathing room tomorrow night as high pressure moves in and we could also have a low around 06z SAT. I don't feel too conflicted about tomorrow's high or the wind speed. For precipitation, high resolution guidance is trending less and less impressive, but given radar over Kentucky, which looks very healthy, I didn't go too low. If HRRR/4km NAM/RAP are correct, the precip shield just falls apart this evening with not much reaching BKW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 65/53/12/0.14 Not too sure about the rain situation yet but should continue to dissipate probably went too light lows were trying to go lower but clouds and rain figured they would hold higher Edit: didn't realize I put .11 instead which may help me out a bit more in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 66/52/13/0.09 Didn't notice the temperature drop, but still could see a low of 52 being plausible. Honestly, I was more thinking it'd be a non-diurnal 06z low, especially if the winds die out tomorrow night. BKW seems to be hit or miss on the lows. Precip was the big question though. Seeing HRRR disintegrating the precip shield as it moved in was concerning, but I didn't feel confident going any lower than I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 66/52/12/0.04 Went with the HRRR's idea on the precip, probably would have compromised a bit if I had more time to think about it. The temperature trend is nice, getting below 56 before 06Z would be a nice bonus. Looked like some nice warm advection tomorrow night so I'm assuming the 52 happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 67/52/15/0.02 Safe to say I jumped off the GFS rain ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 65/50/13/0.10 The temperature just collapsed to 60F this hour (13F drop since 23z), so I nudged the low toward the cooler end of the spectrum. That also allows for breathing room tomorrow night as high pressure moves in and we could also have a low around 06z SAT. I don't feel too conflicted about tomorrow's high or the wind speed. For precipitation, high resolution guidance is trending less and less impressive, but given radar over Kentucky, which looks very healthy, I didn't go too low. If HRRR/4km NAM/RAP are correct, the precip shield just falls apart this evening with not much reaching BKW. Bad logic. Temperature rebounded to 67F the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Bad logic. Temperature rebounded to 67F the next hour. Bad logic. Temperature rebounded to 67F the next hour. I definitely think tomorrow night is when they'll reach their low. NAM BUFKIT definitely showed an opportunity to clear out after 00z and the USL agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 I definitely think tomorrow night is when they'll reach their low. NAM BUFKIT definitely showed an opportunity to clear out after 00z and the USL agreed. Agreed. My 50F was actually a late low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 65/52/13/0.05". Didn't feel confident enough to deviate much from the USL on the max/min. Lows are too hit and miss and I'm not entirely confident they'll get warmer than 65F tomorrow. I had 0.00" of precip for today's forecast, and I still feel pretty good about that. Radar trends suggest that they may not even get any precip at this point, so I feel good about the 0.05". After a terrible start (what's new), I should move up a couple hundred spots today depending on precip. We'll see what happens tonight though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Agreed. My 50F was actually a late low. The empirical method I invented to forecast lows yielded 48F as the lowest possibility. Hardly fool proof of course. On another note, the RAP is starting to look more like the HRRR so I think you and others that put a lot of precip. look pretty good. I'm falling flat on my face here after a good first two days. Guess that's why I work in retail lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Radar is sure looking dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised if we ended both days with 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Looks like the high may be at 6z... Still 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Looks like 0.04" with probably nothing else should start to see it clear up soon and get into some sun see if we can hit mid 60s. The low will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 We're hitting at least 64F as an intrahour high if we don't hit higher. We'll see how we do tonight with temperatures, but even a finish now would put me in the top 25. It's been an interesting week, and next week looks just as wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 We're hitting at least 64F as an intrahour high if we don't hit higher. We'll see how we do tonight with temperatures, but even a finish now would put me in the top 25. It's been an interesting week, and next week looks just as wild. The HRRR shows some volatility with temperatures tonight, including a rapid, early tumble, before rising again overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.