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WxChallenge 2015-16


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73/49/13/0.00

 

Kind of worried I went a little too high on the low, but dew points looked like they would be a little higher tonight. Was also hoping the wind doesn't die down too much, but not holding my breath. Bit of a risk, but I could see it paying off (or going horribly wrong). For the high, I'm thinking high clouds inhibit it from pushing too far into the 70s. 

 

Always takes me a couple of days to acclimate to a city, so, we'll see.

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73/49/13/0.00

 

Kind of worried I went a little too high on the low, but dew points looked like they would be a little higher tonight. Was also hoping the wind doesn't die down too much, but not holding my breath. Bit of a risk, but I could see it paying off (or going horribly wrong). For the high, I'm thinking high clouds inhibit it from pushing too far into the 70s. 

 

Always takes me a couple of days to acclimate to a city, so, we'll see.

If it wasn't for the USL being so low (42, 41), I would have definitely swayed about that high. Hard to believe it busts back to back mornings, but most trends favor a higher low temperature. LAMP hasn't done particularly well with lows there recently, but it only has 53F tonight for a minimum...

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If it wasn't for the USL being so low (42, 41), I would have definitely swayed about that high. Hard to believe it busts back to back mornings, but most trends favor a higher low temperature. LAMP hasn't done particularly well with lows there recently, but it only has 53F tonight for a minimum...

 

Yeah, the USL being so low was a bit worrying. LAMP was 50F yesterday I think, so it's even warmer today. The odd thing is I'm pretty sure it kept it clear all night too. Like said, I could see it going either way.

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73/52/13/0.03

Warmth maybe a little over done, clouds here and there overnight should keep it warmer but figured still a drop is possible. Winds about the same and went with some precipitation just before the time is up tomorrow night but didn't think too much would fall. Not much convection being mountainous and overnight but hey who knows anymore.

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Went 77/52/17/0

 

There will be more high clouds tonight, but they clearly radiate well and any periods of clearer skies would let temps quickly fall. GFS and NAM MOS both had 52 so I felt comfortable going for that. As for the high tomorrow...a good amount of sun should make it through the cirrus, and the NAM and GFS (and Euro) both suggested at least a couple of degrees warmer than today. The clouds may get thick enough to stop them from warming as much as they could so I felt nervous going any higher than 77. The Euro didn't get rain all that close by 6z tomorrow night so rode with that and went for 0 precip.

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75/54/16/0

Bust potential in every category...

 

High: Tempted to go warmer again, but cloudiness could throw a wrench. If it stays clear/mostly clear, 76-77 could be attained.

Low: Flip-flop from last night. Now the USL is warm, while all other guidance is low. HRRR is also low, but HRRR is running 3-5F too cool compared to obs. Could see anything from upper 40s to upper 50s, but kind of went in the middle.

Wind: The mountains may come into play, as I could see channeling leading to a flukey high wind given the profiles aloft, although numerical guidance seems to favor not much higher than today, so we'll see.

Precip: Went with zilch since my preferred guidance keeps BKW dry through 06z FRI, including the Euro.

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