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WxChallenge 2015-16


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85/48/12

As always, the low is a big question mark. I could see another 44/45, especially with light winds, but then again, it's almost anyone's guess here. There are two clusters of models for highs tomorrow (near 80 and near 86) and then MOS has showed a slight uptick over the last few runs, leading me to sway a touch warmer. I don't see a strong signal for high winds, as we're not looking at a 07z peak, instead, winds slowly increase tomorrow evening. Going into the final day ranked #2, so hopefully I can secure a lock for the top 10 in this city.

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85/47/15/0.00"

 

With the high of 80F today, I've managed to crawl within 1 error point of 2nd place for Category 4. Tried to take a little bit of a risk for tomorrow, in an "all or nothing" mentality. If I can get the 47F low or lower, I should be in really good shape to win a trophy. We'll see though!

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84/49/16

Currently #2 in Cat-2 so this is an important forecast. The pressure gradient favors that southwesterly gap wind so I went higher on the wind. The nights with southerly flow have also failed to plunge into the mid-40s. High was based on forecast heights which are nearly identical to Wednesday when it was 84.

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84/49/16

Currently #2 in Cat-2 so this is an important forecast. The pressure gradient favors that southwesterly gap wind so I went higher on the wind. The nights with southerly flow have also failed to plunge into the mid-40s. High was based on forecast heights which are nearly identical to Wednesday when it was 84.

Not sure what to think about the low tonight. Temperatures are already falling much faster than last night, but the directional change is a key consideration. Maybe temperatures fall for a while longer and then level off by the pre-dawn hours.

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Not sure what to think about the low tonight. Temperatures are already falling much faster than last night, but the directional change is a key consideration. Maybe temperatures fall for a while longer and then level off by the pre-dawn hours.

 

That's what I'm thinking/hoping will happen. Drop to the low 50s and then level off. The colder trend compared with Tuesday night (3F colder) is concerning though. 

 

It's pretty simple for me, if the low stays at 49 or above, I hang onto the #2 Cat-2 spot no matter what. If the low is 48 I need 15 kt wind. If it's 47 or lower I need 16 kt. Also could finish at #1 overall if I get the warmer temperatures and 16 kt wind. Doesn't matter what the high does. 

 

Knowing my luck on the final day, the low will plunge and the wind won't show up. Usually it's precip that defeats me so it will be a nice change of pace this time. 

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I came up 1 point short but I'm happy with a top-10. Nice job to the winners! Too bad about the Portland vote but at least we'll have Seattle for the AMS city next year (or at least those of us doomed to spend more years in school...). 

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I came up 1 point short but I'm happy with a top-10. Nice job to the winners! Too bad about the Portland vote but at least we'll have Seattle for the AMS city next year (or at least those of us doomed to spend more years in school...). 

 

Unfortunately this will be my last year. Four years of WxChallenge and only Astoria for the Pac NW (and that was a horrible city for me).

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69/41/11/0

Looks similar to today, just slightly warmer. Feels like El Paso with the low tonight... There's a good dew-point spread now, but that number should start steadily rising overnight. Skies are clear and the same can be said upstream, despite MOS showing considerable cloudiness tonight. I wouldn't be surprised if temperatures briefly tumble into the upper 30s. Overall, playing it rather safe for day 1.

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