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WxChallenge 2015-16


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D1: 61/40/20/0

Kinda upset I didn't go stronger with winds was originally going to put 24 but backed down thinking it would be a little lighter. Oh well not bad first day.

D2: 61/31/16/0

Less windy still have a random gust think the high should be about the same wouldn't be surprised if it was colder by a degree. Well the low might be a little too low. I think we get cold but think 32 or even 33 with the way the dp is 26 right now and at 42. Which kinda sucks for D1 but you never know.

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59/33/16

 

My reasoning for 33 was that dew point was already rising ahead the schedule and it was also few degrees warmer than modeled last morning (51 rather than upper 40s) so I felt comfortable going warm. I actually thought about going 34, but balked. I wasn't that confident in wind or high so... I guess I was hoping gusts would settle after 6z. We'll see.

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Well im not having at all how does virtually everything bust low and not a lick of wind. At this rate I might not make it to the tournament entry at all.

Looking back, it's very rare for a single digit daily max wind in February at ELP, but they will likely achieve that today. That caused me to go a bit conservative with winds tomorrow, but watch it end up verifying well above guidance.

 

66/34/11

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66/34/13/0.00

 

I was hoping the winds died out yesterday, but I wasn't expecting them to die off that quick... I figured my 12kts would be low, but it'll do. Still, doing surprisingly well so far. Normally I start somewhat poorly, and play catch-up the rest of the city.

 

For tomorrow, I think the winds will pick up a little better towards evening. The low was trickiest, but I think something like last night is pretty possible. 

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66/33/13

Yeah I'm just not doing well with these last two cities. I can probably play catch up if we get a nice synoptic system down there but then again we are talking about pretty much the sw so probably not.

Yeah that's the same thought process I had. There really isn't any chance of playing catchup after such a poor first two days because there's no precip.

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79/44/12

Nothing too interesting tomorrow, although I'm kind of iffy about the low temperature. If winds back off (another variable), temperatures may tumble into the lower 40s, however, some guidance only drops temperatures back to near 50. Given some modest CAA, went a degree cooler than this morning's low. Winds will probably peak at 06z. They spiked up to 17kts at the top of the hour, but they should begin steadily easing toward within the next few hours.

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78/45/9/0.00. Winds are peaking right at 6z but climo winds start at 7z, so I took a risk. 

Really don't see how they get as warm today with mixing levels lower and temperatures near the same if not a tad cooler. This will be basically my only chance to make up ground this week. 

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