so_whats_happening Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Pretty crazy increase in winds think I went a little too light winds going from 5-10 knots to over 40 some pushing 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Hopefully everything's fixed today. Results are all screw-y too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Because of the low precip, I'm going to need at least 56F to get a trophy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Because of the low precip, I'm going to need at least 56F to get a trophy today. Yup, last night I thought I was out of it, but a high of 54-55 (provided the low stands as is, or doesn't go below 35 I think) should bump me up to #2. Gonna be cutting it really close in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yup, last night I thought I was out of it, but a high of 54-55 (provided the low stands as is, or doesn't go below 35 I think) should bump me up to #2. Gonna be cutting it really close in any case. Pretty sure you got it. The high is supposed to occur over the next 1-2 hours, and I would still need 4 more degrees. I'm thinking 54F will probably be the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Pretty sure you got it. The high is supposed to occur over the next 1-2 hours, and I would still need 4 more degrees. I'm thinking 54F will probably be the high. We'll see. Up to 52 in ABR now. MBG to the west is up to 56, and PIR to the southwest is up to 63, so I could still definitely see it hitting 55+. Still a chance of hitting a 06z low later, so I'll stay cautiously pessimistic. Two years ago in Redding, CA I was pretty much a lock for #2 cat 3, as long as the high went 76+. It hit 75 early on in the day so it looked like a sure bet, and I was getting excited... And then it just sat at 75 for 4-5 hours, with no intra-hour bump to 76... Ended up getting beat by half a point. I'm still salty about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 If we can get 55F or higher I'll miraculously finish better than consensus after an abysmal D7. Never truly felt like I understood this place this week, but on to the next one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 54 degrees and climbing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 WxChallenge's website still messed up, so I have no idea what's happening. Think I'm a lock for trophy but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 WxChallenge's website still messed up, so I have no idea what's happening. Think I'm a lock for trophy but... It seems to be working on my end although it's missing the #5 person from yesterday's final results, which is sitll an issue today. I think a 56+ and 30+ on winds would actually knock you to 3rd place in Cat 3. Hoping you do well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Hmm... Reevaluating my hypothetical, and it actually looks like I either need an exact high of 55, or a high of 54 with the winds to verify at 30+ kts. Something tells me the next ob comes in at 56. Hoping I'm wrong, but on the bright side if it does, at least then I know I'm out of the running. Still, congrats to everyone who has done well this city. El Paso is going to be boring to forecast for after this. Edit: Looks like another 54! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 We'll see. Up to 52 in ABR now. MBG to the west is up to 56, and PIR to the southwest is up to 63, so I could still definitely see it hitting 55+. Still a chance of hitting a 06z low later, so I'll stay cautiously pessimistic. Two years ago in Redding, CA I was pretty much a lock for #2 cat 3, as long as the high went 76+. It hit 75 early on in the day so it looked like a sure bet, and I was getting excited... And then it just sat at 75 for 4-5 hours, with no intra-hour bump to 76... Ended up getting beat by half a point. I'm still salty about that one. A preemptive congratulations, looking like 55°F is probably gonna be the number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 A preemptive congratulations, looking like 55°F is probably gonna be the number. Climo report says 55/36/30/0.01. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It seems to be working on my end although it's missing the #5 person from yesterday's final results, which is sitll an issue today. I think a 56+ and 30+ on winds would actually knock you to 3rd place in Cat 3. Hoping you do well! 55, actually I went too conservative on winds and temperature... but it's not the end of world. I still got good city score. Onto Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Thanks for the congrats! I started this city thinking it'd be a disaster, but I actually increased in rank every day. I'm still holding my breath though until I see how the temperature drops. If current climo is at 55/36/30/0.01, I just need the temp to stay 35+! If somehow it hits 34 before 06z, I'll get beaten out by 0.1 points . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The temperature has tanked 13F in the last two hours to 39F, lol. Assuming that's correct. I noticed Td wasn't registering at 01z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The temperature has tanked 13F in the last two hours to 39F, lol. Assuming that's correct. I noticed Td wasn't registering at 01z. This has become a roller-coaster of emotions... Surrounding stations pretty much all appear to be warmer too. I can't think it can drop much more, or at least nearly as quick given what should still be 10kt or so winds with (per rap analysis) 54F 925mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Aaaand down to 37F now. Hello pessimism, my old friend. Clouds moved in (for now) so maybe it'll stop falling, but this is way too close for comfort. Still no Td being recorded either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Up to 45F again. Crazy ending to this city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Back up to 45F lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Lol. 45F now. The volatility of this city is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 If climo stands and it's 55/36/30/0.03, I should be 2nd for cat. 2 forecasters and 7th overall! El Paso is going to feel weird after forecasting for Aberdeen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 61/41/21/0.00 Going a bit bullish on the winds given trends and short-term guidance. Otherwise, fairly close to the consensus for temperatures. Welcome to El Paso! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 63/40/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hoping this goes better than ABR for me 63/43/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Maybe my wind forecast wasn't very bullish after all; pretty close to the consensus. The high temperature forecast tomorrow is tricky, I was tempted to go higher as the two above forecasts have. There's a sharp thermal gradient, but the data I reviewed suggested a downward trend in temperatures over the last few model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 61/42/22/0.00 Not really enough there for me to go way outside of guidance. Wind was a bit tricky, especially when the USL was on the low side of things for a change. Found a climo wind rose that could be helpful as well. Looks like while north winds are common, it's the west winds that can get beefy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 60/39/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 High already 61F and winds at least 21 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 60/31/15 Didn't see any strong reasons to sway too far from the consensus. I could have gone lower for the minimum temperature, but winds may limit radiational cooling a bit. So far for Day 1: 61/51/26 The low should be reached at or near 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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