WxBlue Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 If everything hold, I'll have a perfect day other than the precipitation. That's a heck of way to rebound back to #4 overall. 41/31/24/0 For once, I'm the least confident in winds... EDIT: If we get warmer than 41 and wind stronger than 24 knots, I'll secure a sizable lead for a trophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 42/31/23/0.00 Didn't have as much time to forecast as normal. Plus, I had some website that I could get free Euro data from bookmarked on my computer at home, but since I'm not at home... Oops. Euro was doing really well the last couple of days too. But yeah, another fun Aberdeen forecast. Low is the only number I'm semi-confident on. Managed to move up a little more today too. For as bad as I thought this city was going to go, I've been pleasantly surprised this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Incredible spread in models tomorrow. Euro has done well and it's ensemble mean was around 45. If clouds clear and they mix a little they'll be very mild. 46/30/23/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Incredible spread in models tomorrow. Euro has done well and it's ensemble mean was around 45. If clouds clear and they mix a little they'll be very mild. 46/30/23/0.01 Forecast inversion worries me, but yes, with 850s rising to around +10C by 00z Fri, there's a lot of room to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Incredible spread in models tomorrow. Euro has done well and it's ensemble mean was around 45. If clouds clear and they mix a little they'll be very mild. 46/30/23/0.01 Agreed, but that's what makes the forecast tomorrow so tough. Do they clear? Or do the low clouds stick around? The Euro is right, when it has the clouds right. It's not when it doesn't (see day 3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Agreed, but that's what makes the forecast tomorrow so tough. Do they clear? Or do the low clouds stick around? The Euro is right, when it has the clouds right. It's not when it doesn't (see day 3). Even so, there are reasons to believe tomorrow could be different. 1. No precipitation is expected this go-around. 2. Major WAA. 3. Upstream air-mass has a history of producing record warmth, much of which verified above guidance. 4. 850mb temperature anomalies of >10C. 5. Even on Day 3, the Euro was only 3F too warm. If that were the case tomorrow, the Euro's 47 would translate to 44. Again, playing devil's advocate a bit, but it should be very interesting. Even the cooler guidance (4km NAM) shows temperatures breaking 70F in far southern South Dakota, further indicating that there's going to be a very sharp gradient across the state on a NW to SE axis. More fun at Aberdeen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I totally agree that the key tomorrow is if the low clouds mix out. You can see how even todayt the low cloud deck was slowly getting eaten away from south to north. Even the different WRF variants (NMM/ARW) have completely different depictions on how tomorrow is going to go. WRF-ARW (no low level clouds, so temps are a good 10F higher than the NMM) WRF-NMM Really I could see anything from 39-50F tomorrow. I went for the clearing, although I know there is significant risk/reward here. 47/32/24/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 43/31/24 Wanted to go a little cautious with everything. High is theeasy only one I'm up in the air about as many have stated so far. Hoping for another decent day here to move up a little more every day don't want to be too far positive at the end if this just so happens to not be a complete drop city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Winds up to 21kt last hour. Just can't win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Haven't been around much this year but still forecasting. Sitting in the middle of the pack in Aberdeen so I decided to gamble on it mixing out tomorrow. 49/31/26/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 To be clear, I have zero confidence in my high forecast tomorrow either. I could see anything from 37 to 55 verifying, to be honest. That being said, it does seem like a lot of places in central SD seem to be clearing out now, so I'm quite concerned about my forecast already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 To be clear, I have zero confidence in my high forecast tomorrow either. I could see anything from 37 to 55 verifying, to be honest. That being said, it does seem like a lot of places in central SD seem to be clearing out now, so I'm quite concerned about my forecast already. Yep and now we are clear as of 11z at ABR. The guidence that had ABR staying cloudy and cold for the high did not have the station clearing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Yep and now we are clear as of 11z at ABR. The guidence that had ABR staying cloudy and cold for the high did not have the station clearing at all. Indeed. I'm screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 38F already. Gonna be a warm one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Still 38 max, but look like clouds are clearing out in the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Still 38 max, but look like clouds are clearing out in the next several hours. HRRR suggests there could be some modest warming into the 21-22z time frame. LAMP wants to bump temperatures up 6 degrees over the next three hours, but it's initialized 3F too warm. We may end up with a compromise, with the USL doing just fine with it's call of 42F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 HRRR suggests there could be some modest warming into the 21-22z time frame. LAMP wants to bump temperatures up 6 degrees over the next three hours, but it's initialized 3F too warm. We may end up with a compromise, with the USL doing just fine with it's call of 42F. Agree, as we don't have much sunlight left even after clouds clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 When I saw that the low level clouds were clearing out, I was sure it would get up into the mid to upper 40s today. Still too early to say for sure, but I guess I may have dodged a big bullet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Going to be a terribly frustrating day for me, unless temps jump up between 21-0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Yea it looks like the mid to high level clouds were a saving grace for those who went cold on the high today for ABR... still might clear between 21z to 0z, but unlikely to recover much before sundown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It looks like places to the west jumped 3 to 6 degrees as the high clouds cleared. However, it also looks like the area closer to Aberdeen is still snow-covered, so I'm not sure the clearing will have as big an impact there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Finally, up to 40F this hour. I'm curious to see if temperatures level off through 06z or if maybe we get a few more bumps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Last day went 54/36/32/0.05 forgot to add precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 57/37/30/0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 53/36/29/0.11 Not getting fooled by the high tomorrow, as once the precip moves through, there's significant CAA. The low will likely be reached at 06z SAT, as temperatures tonight may hold close to steady throughout. On a side note, the HRRRX shows temperatures rising from 39F at 06z FRI to 46F at 07z. Perhaps a sign that we may still have some room tonight for a temperature spike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 53/34/33/0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 55/36/30/0.03" Everything at least feels like it's in the realm of possibility. If the clouds don't clear out quick enough my high temp is going to definitely be in trouble. Winds were a hard choice too. Normally I'd like to be a decent bit higher than guidance on wind when it's like this, but this city seems to have troubles hitting higher numbers. Was tempted to go a bit higher on precip too, since it should fall as rain, but didn't in the end. All things considered, I should finish this city way higher than I thought I would. A perfect forecast should put me pretty close to trophy range I think. Sadly, something is screwy with the hypothetical verification, and it shows me going from 0 to 5 absences, so I dunno... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 55/36/30/0.03" Everything at least feels like it's in the realm of possibility. If the clouds don't clear out quick enough my high temp is going to definitely be in trouble. Winds were a hard choice too. Normally I'd like to be a decent bit higher than guidance on wind when it's like this, but this city seems to have troubles hitting higher numbers. Was tempted to go a bit higher on precip too, since it should fall as rain, but didn't in the end. All things considered, I should finish this city way higher than I thought I would. A perfect forecast should put me pretty close to trophy range I think. Sadly, something is screwy with the hypothetical verification, and it shows me going from 0 to 5 absences, so I dunno... Yep, hypothetical is wacky for me, too. Has me dropping 180 places with 0 points and a perfect forecast. I think if the high is 54 or higher, I'm reasonably safe for a trophy, and if it's 55 or higher I'm almost guaranteed one. But I don't think I can catch up to the first place cat. 2, since his forecasts have been so similar to mine the past couple days (ours were exactly the same for today's forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yep, hypothetical is wacky for me, too. Has me dropping 180 places with 0 points and a perfect forecast. I think if the high is 54 or higher, I'm reasonably safe for a trophy, and if it's 55 or higher I'm almost guaranteed one. But I don't think I can catch up to the first place cat. 2, since his forecasts have been so similar to mine the past couple days (ours were exactly the same for today's forecast). I only drop a mere 1085 places with a perfect forecast. Nothing much! And ah, I forgot you were "nimbus." Any hope of my getting a trophy relied on you having a really bad day. Looking at your forecast, I don't think I'd be able to catch up. First place cat 2 is pretty much locked in, and I'd say you're strong for 2nd. The 1.5 points between where I'm at and 3rd place cat 2 is doable still, but no trophy there. On to what will likely be a very boring 2 weeks of El Paso weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Forgot to complain a couple days ago about this: Wasn't the precip. recorded on Day 5 simply snow that fell prior to the forecast period and then melted into the rain gauge? Why does that count? Not that it makes a big difference or anything it just bugged me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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