WxBlue Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 23/11/10/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Another low confidence forecast: 25/11/12/0.05 It looks like they're on the cool side of the boundary again with a similar setup to today, just somewhat less precipitation (also later arrival). I could make a case for highs anywhere in the 20s given the trends and verification over the past few days. (Could easily be like today where temperatures struggle to get above 20, however, if precipitation lags, the boundary layer thermal profile would support mid to upper 20s) ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 23/7/10/0.08. Thought process was that there will be enough of a window to cool rapidly (hopefully after 6z) but they won't manage low single digits. There will be a decent amount of clouds during the late morning/early afternoon and I'm not convinced that they'll be able to break the inversion tomorrow with weak winds, but temperatures will still be a couple degrees warmer regardless. Was "aggressive" with precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 24/12/12/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 26/10/11/0.03" Figured the high would be a bit higher than it was today, but a good bit lower than Tuesday. For the low, hoping the clouds preclude the low from dropping too far (if at all) into the single digits, but the light wind worries me a some. Wind-wise, think the high pushing in from the north starts tightening the pressure gradient right around the end of the forecast period, but how much and how soon is a big question. Precip was a tossup, but I tend to go lower QPF especially when it's supposed to be a lighter snow. Whole forecast is a bit of a tossup really. First couple of days have been pretty rough. Hard to get much of a handle on this city. But, that's the fun of it. More entertaining than forecasting clear and high pressure every day and playing the " +/- 1/2 guidance" game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Down to 14/9 already. Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Down to 14/9 already. Ouch... Eh, it seems most nearby stations on wunderground have stopped falling. A few are even coming back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 25/3/12/0.03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The low for day 2 goes into the books as 13F. Whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The 13F and 12kt winds will probably put me in the top 25. With a good day tomorrow, I've typically had terrible starts to every city, so I hope I don't blow it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The 13F and 12kt winds will probably put me in the top 25. With a good day tomorrow, I've typically had terrible starts to every city, so I hope I don't blow it! Same here. That 13 F was HUGE for me moving into Top 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 28/6/12/0.03 Today is gonna be a bad day for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 i went 24/11/12/0.02 so far moved up from my horrible stance lol there is a chance if we can get a storm or two in the next week if not im ready to already move onto the next city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think this might just be the one where at least I feel I might go all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Moving into top 15 after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Moving into top 15 after today. Dropping 350 places after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12/-5/19/0 I went with a lower high then some models showed wanted to go lower but with clouds sticking around until later on i didnt think a drop would occur until later. Most showed a nice drop around 9-12pm EST so just before 6z. Figured why not give it a try. Climo so far for today: 24/13/9/0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 16/-2/16 I'm expecting an afternoon high. Sounds crazy, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 17/1/15 Not sold on temperatures tanking tonight, but the wildcard will be if winds go calm for a while, and/or if temperatures fall fast enough prior to 06z SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 15/-3/16/0 Can totally buy the afternoon high even if I miss it at 6z. NWS and USL are doing great so I decided to go with blend of these two models (first time I'm trusting a model more this whole week). Dropping 350 places after today. Yikes. Happened to me last semester (DRO, I think...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 11/-4/20 if it doesn't work out, then KABR will hopefully be my drop city this semester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Assuming nothing sneaky happens tonight, I'll have moved up at least 169 points today, but still just 361st overall for the city. Tomorrow could be a nail in the coffin for Aberdeen if temperatures bust. Goal is to finish in the top 100 for each city, but it's still very much an uphill climb. At least I am one of 43 contestants to have a precip error score of 0.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12/-5/19/0 I went with a lower high then some models showed wanted to go lower but with clouds sticking around until later on i didnt think a drop would occur until later. Most showed a nice drop around 9-12pm EST so just before 6z. Figured why not give it a try. Climo so far for today: 24/13/9/0.05 Along the lines of you. 11/-4/16 I'm banking on the temperature dropping before 6z. Low dipped below 13 for the past couple of days. I don't see why it won't happen again with light northeast winds, fresh snow, and some brief clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Along the lines of you. 11/-4/16 I'm banking on the temperature dropping before 6z. Low dipped below 13 for the past couple of days. I don't see why it won't happen again with light northeast winds, fresh snow, and some brief clearing. Yea nice drop this past hour now only 19 so maybe this is a clue for tonight? I hope we get down to like 10 or even 11 before the day is over would honestly just help more for today and almost seal tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Had a lucky good day today using just th USL last night lol. 19/0/17 I think I'm probably toast on the high seeing as it's 19 now. How the heck is there going to be an afternoon high with the CAA tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 16/-3/16/0.00" Figured the high is possible with a gentle decrease tonight, or maybe a bit of luck tomorrow afternoon. But doubt it with the CAA. Low I think is solid if the clouds don't build in ahead of time, and the winds die down before 06z. Either way, looking like a strong possibility this'll be my drop city. My goal is just getting a negative normalized error every city, which I was accomplishing until now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I was 16/3/16/0.00. Fell about 50 or so spots today depending on the wind which has a shot at being 10 kts I think. I'm concerned with how poorly the short range models have been doing with tanking temps overnight. The euro and its ensembles have been doing a relatively good job with handling overnight mins and I just kinda wanted to risk it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Had a lucky good day today using just th USL last night lol. 19/0/17 I think I'm probably toast on the high seeing as it's 19 now. How the heck is there going to be an afternoon high with the CAA tomorrow? Like all the CAA on Monday and Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 D3 low actually bottomed out near 6z to 11 before going back up to 13. This drop was enough to push me to Top 5 as soon as they put in the correct wind speed value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Up to 15 degrees and still rising. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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