Quincy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 25/12/19 Thermal profiles look similar to today (high of 34 degrees), but cloud-cover may keep temperatures down a bit. Went somewhat above guidance, but not as high as one could perhaps argue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Went with an apprehensive 28/11/19/0 Think clouds tomorrow will be thin enough for enough sun to make it through, but the low levels are several degrees colder than today. Models have a terrible low bias here on the high so I didn't feel too bad going that extreme, but we'll see. Low was tough...some high clouds tonight and winds may have trouble decoupling, so I went a little warmer than MOS and the HRRR. Northerly winds tend to do well here so I went a little higher than guidance for winds. Wasn't sure how strong they'd get since the pressure gradient isn't the strongest and because the CAA will be much weaker than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 26/10/16 I won Category 4 overall trophy at ABR's sister city, Grand Forks, two years ago. Hope I can repeat the magic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 29/12/18/0. I had no idea how to feel about it. The Euro and it's ensembles did quite well today especially compared to the American models and their MOS outputs (MAV was 11F off!). I could see them staying in the upper teens both tonight and tomorrow night, but I felt like a 12-13F was a safer play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Temperatures tonight aren't slam dunk either. LAMP has a low of 7 and that guidance was running 1F too mild at 00z. It's basically MOS vs. all other guidance. The winds would have to slacken off for a colder low to happen and based on the hourly obs for the past two hours, that's plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Temperatures tonight aren't slam dunk either. LAMP has a low of 7 and that guidance was running 1F too mild at 00z. It's basically MOS vs. all other guidance. The winds would have to slacken off for a colder low to happen and based on the hourly obs for the past two hours, that's plausible. That's exactly why I went conservative and go cold on the low and less wind. I didn't want to stick my neck out on the first day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 23/14/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 28/15/23/0 very uncertain on the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 28/14/19/0.00 Wanted to go higher on both the high and low. Models have been far too low on the high temperatures, and it seems they have had problems with the placement of the quasistationary boundary across the Dakotas. It's possible lower winds tomorrow will limit mixing enough to keep the temperature lower than I think it could reach, but I do think higher winds overnight will limit temperature fall tonight. It already stayed at 26 the last hour. I think a low in the upper teens is certainly possible, as is a high of 30, but didn't want to do that day 1 - turns out I wouldn't have been alone! I guess we'll see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 17F at 5z. Glad I was at 12F but I can already tell that this city won't be easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 17F at 5z. Glad I was at 12F but I can already tell that this city won't be easy Yep, so much for what I posted a bit ago already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 went 22/6/16 I think i went a little too low on winds probably be stronger and as far as the low not sure why I went so low didnt really have a chance to make a forecast today. Lets see how it turns out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 A ten degree temperature difference within a distance of twenty miles. Pretty crazy gradient. USL vs GFS MOS temperature comparison at this time (using 06z): 18/16. Actual is 16 degrees at 0553Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This morning bottomed out at 10 F. Hmm... EDIT: After looking at 18z obs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 KABR is now on the left side of the gradient. Up to 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This city is already not going to be fun... Some of these models have a terrible cold bias and winds as well. Seem like the lows are right about where they need to be not the mins though and certainly not the maxes considering its now 30 might just be my drop city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Went 24/11/21/0. Wasn't confident at all. Originally wanted to go warmer, but didn't want to take much risk day 1... Wishing I had now. Glad the low sort of worked out, because the wind definitely doesn't look like it will. Oh well, plenty of days to make it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 25/12/19 Thermal profiles look similar to today (high of 34 degrees), but cloud-cover may keep temperatures down a bit. Went somewhat above guidance, but not as high as one could perhaps argue. Meteorology > modelology, too bad I leaned closer to guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Meteorology > modelology, too bad I leaned closer to guidance. I was actually looking forward to getting major points from this city just because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Does the warm side of the gradient win round 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not very high confidence... 26/15/15/0.10 Will high temperatures spike again? The odd thing is that the Euro is much cooler, despite the Euro handling this city well recently. Cloud-cover and precipitation will be HUGE, as temperatures could go way above guidance again (perhaps even higher than today) if sunshine breaks through the clouds. I think precipitation totals are trending down a bit, especially given upstream dew-points running lower than all model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 21/10/13/0.12 Stuffed under the thick clouds and precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 25/13/14/0 ???? on any numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 25/13/16/0.12 We'll see. Could see it going in any direction really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 22/14/15/0.13" Banking on my guesswork. Originally had like 30 as high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 25/15/10/0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 24/15/16/0.17". No clue, but figured clouds would really shrink the diurnal spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I'm almost positive this will be my drop city. Horrible first day not any greater second good luck to you all on this one. Just haven't had time to do forecasts this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I'm almost positive this will be my drop city. Horrible first day not any greater second good luck to you all on this one. Just haven't had time to do forecasts this week No clear trend either. Guidance busted horribly low max temperatures for the past week, with today being a major exception. Watch temperatures tank tonight before 6z (as many trends suggest) and I'll be dropping down too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 28/6/12/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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