Quincy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 53/46/19/0.16" Fairly cautious again with this forecast. From the models, precipitation "appears" to be trending down tomorrow, but radar and observations from today lead me to be skeptical. Already 0.58" has fallen today. For the temperatures, with cloud-cover and cold advection, I do not expect a spike like we saw over the past few days. The wild card may be temperatures dropping off tomorrow night, but with clouds likely lingering and wind off of Lake Pontchartrain, I leaned close to the model consensus. (Precipitation is another wild card if considerable shower activity lingers much past 06z WED) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 54/45/20/0.49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Similar to your prediction, Quincy: 53/46/19/.14 I too went lower on precip because of recent trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 54/45/21/0.12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 53/45/19/0.18 Was going to go with 54 but thought it would react similar to how we do up here with cold coming in the next day being moderated at first. I'm iffy about the rain since as many have mentioned precipitation amounts have diminished as the models thought the front would move slower. Still kept in showers for tomorrow especially early. Today worked out pretty well except precipitation amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 53/45/20/0.27 I had 10 minutes to do this forecast, but I thought about the precipitation for most of it. I could see 0.1-0.3 happening, but I wasn't so confident after yesterday's washout so I went toward the high side of my range. Glad to know the consensus went higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 KMSY 271653Z 36022G42KT 10SM OVC026 09/04 A3014 RMK AO2 PK WND 34042/1652 SLP210 T00890039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 KMSY 271653Z 36022G42KT 10SM OVC026 09/04 A3014 RMK AO2 PK WND 34042/1652 SLP210 T00890039 Certainly wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wow on that wind too I guess should have figured with the lake just to the north and the winds the way they were. I just hope the high can crest past 51 at this point shirt range shows 52 maybe 53 possible with some small clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Jumped up to 54, might even end up higher by the climo report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The high was 55. Questions about the wind speed... Max gust listed as MM and only 22 MPH for the peak wind speed, not 22 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 The high was 55. Questions about the wind speed... Max gust listed as MM and only 22 MPH for the peak wind speed, not 22 knots.That was an hourly METAR too that had those really high winds. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 That was an hourly METAR too that had those really high winds. Hmm Another southern city, another questionable ASOS station... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Another southern city, another questionable ASOS station...I don't know how the station could mess up for one ob randomly and then start working again. I was surprised at the wind but thought it was legit. We'll see what WxChallenge does with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I don't know how the station could mess up for one ob randomly and then start working again. I was surprised at the wind but thought it was legit. We'll see what WxChallenge does with it We'll see, I guess. I'm still bitter at MGM station from last year, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 59/41/15/0 not much to discuss went a little higher thinking better heating tomorrow but cool night as the high tries to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 59/41/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 59/41/15/0 not much to discuss went a little higher thinking better heating tomorrow but cool night as the high tries to move in. 58/42/15 0.00" Similar. Debated lower tonight, but models seem to be initializing/running too mild to start, plus we have BKN-OVC conditions overnight. Could have gone higher tomorrow, but most guidance actually has mid-50s. (Seems to play into the bias though, of being about 2-3F too cool) The whole forecast seems straight-forward, with no glaring reasons to sway too far in one direction or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 59/42/16/0.00" Hoping clouds will be my friends tomorrow... QPF for D2 is going to be a bit painful unless a decent shower or two can make it inland, which might be possible. Went 0.29" hoping for something after 06z, but not with much luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 59/41/17/0 Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 58/42/15 0.00" Similar. Debated lower tonight, but models seem to be initializing/running too mild to start, plus we have BKN-OVC conditions overnight. Could have gone higher tomorrow, but most guidance actually has mid-50s. (Seems to play into the bias though, of being about 2-3F too cool) The whole forecast seems straight-forward, with no glaring reasons to sway too far in one direction or another. Same except for the wind: 58/42/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 The new and final climo still has 22MPH as the max sustained wind with a missing max gust. So we'll see what WxChallenge does. I know ASOS stations screw up sometimes but again I don't see how the site can decide to give invalid wind obs for a small period of time but work fine on either side of it for the rest of the day. I also can't think of a meteorological explanation for the wind but unless there's a reason to mistrust the equipment I don't see why it should be thrown out. The METAR following the 22kt gusting to 42kt one had a peak gust of 28 knots in the following hour, which is higher than pretty much the rest of the day, which supports the notion that it was for some reason windier around the 1653 ob. But who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The new and final climo still has 22MPH as the max sustained wind with a missing max gust. So we'll see what WxChallenge does. I know ASOS stations screw up sometimes but again I don't see how the site can decide to give invalid wind obs for a small period of time but work fine on either side of it for the rest of the day. I also can't think of a meteorological explanation for the wind but unless there's a reason to mistrust the equipment I don't see why it should be thrown out. The METAR following the 22kt gusting to 42kt one had a peak gust of 28 knots in the following hour, which is higher than pretty much the rest of the day, which supports the notion that it was for some reason windier around the 1653 ob. But who knows. I dunno, it really does look spurious to me. But in any case, I think WxChallenge will go with the 19kts, siding with the NWS, unless someone is able to convince the NWS to change it. And they might have their reasons for putting the 22mph in. I do wish it was higher, though, as I'm at 20kts, myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 I dunno, it really does look spurious to me. But in any case, I think WxChallenge will go with the 19kts, siding with the NWS, unless someone is able to convince the NWS to change it. And they might have their reasons for putting the 22mph in. I do wish it was higher, though, as I'm at 20kts, myself The 1653z METAR today had a peak gust of 66kt, so I'm starting to think that ob yesterday may have been spurious as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Precip is killing this city for me. If not for the precip, I'd be doing very well in this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Precip is killing this city for me. If not for the precip, I'd be doing very well in this city. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 somehow sitting in 50th right now went 70/43/11/0 higher temps thought we could break 70 cool night tonight with mostly clear conditions few clouds here and there and low winds tomorrow as it looks like a little ridging pattern sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 67/44/11/0.00 The USL looks too mild for the low, especially with the temperature quickly tumbling as of 00z and CLR/FEW conditions overnight. Could definitely make a case for warmer than forecast temperatures tomorrow, but I held fairly conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 69/43/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 70/40/13 Let's see how big of a diurnal spread we can get with few clouds and no wind off the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.