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WxChallenge 2015-16


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Sitting at 35 for the city. I had a funny feeling that we would see more precip but felt it was just too small of a chance for that. Oh well on to green bay

 

There was one person in my group that managed to only get an error of 7.5 for precip most of which came from this morning. Everyone else was pushing at least 10 to 15

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43/32/19/0.40"

 

With temperatures probably holding steady or close to it tonight and winds picking up off the lake tomorrow morning, with synoptic WAA also occurring, this seemed like a situation to shoot a few degrees above the models for the high...but we'll see if I went too high. Wasn't too sure on the low but wasn't convinced CAA would be enough to get them much cooler than freezing on its own by 6z. Took a bit of a shot on the winds, if the GFS is right it'll probably be close to my 19 if not a tad higher, if the NAM is right it'll be lower than what I have. Precip sort of a random guess, but didn't see major reason to deviate too far from the model consensus of around 0.35" give or take.

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40/30/14/0.31

 

I was confident on high temp and precip the low was tricky it was going to be cloudy regardless but many were showing a cooling to right around 29-31 some stayed 32 but that was unsure. Winds if they havent picked up already they dont seem to later so we might have what we have,

 

Edit: would not be surprised to see the high go up a degree or two given the low location.

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40/30/14/0.31

 

I was confident on high temp and precip the low was tricky it was going to be cloudy regardless but many were showing a cooling to right around 29-31 some stayed 32 but that was unsure. Winds if they havent picked up already they dont seem to later so we might have what we have,

 

Edit: would not be surprised to see the high go up a degree or two given the low location.

 

Winds should pick up here over the next several hours.

 

As for the high, I agree... I went too low for sure, which I was afraid of. 42F is probably where it will end up.

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43/28/13

 

 

went 43/28/13/0 Winds have been slightly stronger than modeled so far, high has been pretty close if not slightly higher, low has been slightly warmer (most were going down to the mid 20's just not seeing the DP fall too much as of now.

 

43/28/13/0 as well. 

 

Models are doing absolutely terrible with low temperatures so it's ride the USL time. A couple models had GRB dropping all the way into the low 20s(!) tonight, but I can't see it. We'll see how they can warm up although they'll be trapped under the inversion. Even with the strong inversion, there are some 12-15kt winds below it and BUFKIT suggests about 12-14kts will make it to the surface. 

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