Mallow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Seabreeze is passing through now. Storm developed JUST west of the airport, but missed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Seabreeze is passing through now. Storm developed JUST west of the airport, but missed... Either the precip is now or just spotty between now and 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Either the precip is now or just spotty between now and 1am. Looks like atleast another shower will have to watch what happens after that. 0.03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks like the next shower is going to split them, most of the precip will be east and west of the airport. Argh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks they set another record today, 89/74/13/0 on climo right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks like low precip is gonna win it. Probably much higher numbers just east and west, but not at the airport. East is going to get the brunt of it, though, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Gaaahhhh downtown is probably going to end up with more than I had even forecast, while the airport is getting almost bupkis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Today's number: 87/73/0.28/15 Gaaahhhh downtown is probably going to end up with more than I had even forecast, while the airport is getting almost bupkis. >_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Kinda hail-marying it tomorrow. 83/75/10/0.29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I forgot to do a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 83/73/13/0.18 not really sure how tomorrow will play out, So far today 0.08" boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 84/73/10/.16 for tomorrow. I think it's interesting that Islip recorded stronger winds than KTPA even despite Islip's latitude. I thought since KTPA is orientated perpendicular to the westerlies, they'd record stronger winds. Must be a climatological phenomena related to the boundary layer if I had to guess. There's no way it's because of land interference . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 84/73/10/.16 for tomorrow. I think it's interesting that Islip recorded stronger winds than KTPA even despite Islip's latitude. I thought since KTPA is orientated perpendicular to the westerlies, they'd record stronger winds. Must be a climatological phenomena related to the boundary layer if I had to guess. There's no way it's because of land interference . Probably has a lot to do with the fact that KTPA is in the subtropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 83/75/9/0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 85/74/10/0.06 This place has been a mystery for me. Can't say I'm surprised. Looking forward to Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 83/73/12/0.35" (give or take) were my numbers for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I had 83/74/9/0.08" today. Miraculously tied with consensus after yesterday and should move up again today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Probably has a lot to do with the fact that KTPA is in the subtropics. lol! That's what I figured... Just wanted to know for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I just need this squall line to not die out before it gets to Tampa. That's all I ask! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 It looks like they might get something decent. Needs to start moving quicker looks like areas to the south will get the brunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 0.02" so far... how much more to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I had 83/72/13/0.00" for tomorrow. It's an extreme long shot, but if precip is at 0.07 to 0.08", it is theoretically possible for me to win a Cat 4 trophy with a perfect or 0.5 error point day. Thankfully I'll end up below consensus this city as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Went 85/73/13/0.02 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 83/71/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 KTPA and the mystery of rain... KTPA 200353Z 00000KT 10SM BKN004 OVC070 24/23 A3005 RMK AO2 RAE50 SLP174 P0002 T02390228 $KTPA 200453Z 05005KT 10SM BKN004 BKN029 24/23 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP169 P0002 T02390228 402830239 $ Not quite sure how they managed 0.02" of precip with no rain in the RMK section or in any intra hour obs. Another potential fault like what happened on day 1, or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 KTPA and the mystery of rain... Not quite sure how they managed 0.02" of precip with no rain in the RMK section or in any intra hour obs. Another potential fault like what happened on day 1, or what? Via metar they are technically supposed to put out a SPECI if an when precip ends and starts. But i feel as though if they did this when multiple showers came through it would become monotonous . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Went with 83/71/13/0.04" Today went just about as expected end up with around .12-.15" (didnt really get to add) Wouldnt be surprised if overnight they got pop up showers to add. Im a little concerned about the high might go higher but figure clouds would stay around till around 2 which would inhibit most of the warming time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Via metar they are technically supposed to put out a SPECI if an when precip ends and starts. But i feel as though if they did this when multiple showers came through it would become monotonous . Generally you would at least put something in the hourly report though mentioning when rain began/ended right?Anyways 0.19" in the first hour of the day... That's gonna drop me quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Precip for days 6-8 has been just about as frustrating as I've ever seen it. My day 6 reasoning: Organized line of thunderstorms forms along the sea breeze, brief but heavy rain falls before the band shifts east. Actuality: Exactly that, except every heavier cell misses the airport. My day 7 reasoning: Models are underdoing the frontal precipitation. Moderate showers and thunderstorms will last for 6 hours or more, and at least one or two hours of 0.1"+ will add to the lighter amounts in between. Actuality: Exactly that, except every heavier cell misses the airport. Until... My day 8 reasoning: A few showers will be left over just after 06z, but they will be lighter and sporadic. Probably not much more than getting knicked by one for a few hundredths. Actuality: Exactly that, except the one heavy cell pops up directly over the airport within minutes of the 06z observation. So... right idea on all three counts, but my precip forecast is one of the worst in the country. Meanwhile, the nation as a whole, who (in large part) didn't anticipate the heavy sea-breeze thunderstorms, and trusted the models that the frontal band would be weaker (at least moreso than I did), gets it exactly wrong and winds up with much better precipitation forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Generally you would at least put something in the hourly report though mentioning when rain began/ended right? Anyways 0.19" in the first hour of the day... That's gonna drop me quite a bit Yea i have been trying to figure it out and i cant. There were a couple times in this city when SPECI reports were posted and honestly couldnt figure it out since it didnt hit any of the criteria. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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