ma blizzard Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 85/67/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 The final wind for day 4 is 11 knots, not 10 like they have listed. That one knot makes like a 100 spot difference for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The final wind for day 4 is 11 knots, not 10 like they have listed. That one knot makes like a 100 spot difference for me Yep. They're probably just being slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 So can I just put in 86 for the high for days 5-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 So can I just put in 86 for the high for days 5-8? Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. East wind around 9 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Yes, yes you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Made it to just below 200 but there is someone in my school that is 8th right now. Im looking to just end below 0 to keep with my overall. Great start to the first half compared to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I'm within three error points away from the top fifty which I guess isn't saying much compared to Durango or Islip. Thus far, this is my drop city. Hopefully the front comes through KTPA by Friday. That should increase the distribution quite a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. East wind around 9 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Yes, yes you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 87/69/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 87/69/15/0 No 86? I went 86/68/15/0. Temps were me debating between 85-87 and 67-69 and eventually picking a number. Winds are a little tricky. TPA doesn't see east winds extremely often and when they do they're either in the 10-15kt range or 20-25kt from what it looks like. Raw wind on the GFS seems rather high, but I'm sure we'll see winds up to 15kt at some point, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 88/70/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 86/71/14/0 Thought somewhat decent east winds and periodic cloudiness would allow higher temps tonight and slightly lower tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 87/70/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 86/71/17/0 I wanted to find a reason to put precipitation in but without any trigger mechanism I couldn't do so. Took a gamble on the winds in hopes I can gain some spots. BUFKIT looked like it had 20 kts at around 925 mb during the afternoon so I figured they have a shot at getting over 15 kts at the surface. I wasn't sure about the low as it did look like they could see some clouds from west or south but if not I will probably be at least three degrees too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 86/69/14 Decided to go low on winds because of climatology and what happened on day four (although winds do look stronger in the BL). Fool me twice! Shame on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 No 86? I went 86/68/15/0. Temps were me debating between 85-87 and 67-69 and eventually picking a number. Winds are a little tricky. TPA doesn't see east winds extremely often and when they do they're either in the 10-15kt range or 20-25kt from what it looks like. Raw wind on the GFS seems rather high, but I'm sure we'll see winds up to 15kt at some point, right? I assume the 86's were a function of the light northerly synoptic winds, which allowed the sea breeze to stop them. The stronger easterlies tomorrow (and today) should allow them to go beyond 86. I almost considered 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 87/69/15/0 Damn. With an hourly wind of 14kts and with much higher gusts, I expected the climo to have something higher than 14kts, but nope. 14 was all we could manage. So, I've still never had a perfect forecast day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Today's number for me: 86/70/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Damn. With an hourly wind of 14kts and with much higher gusts, I expected the climo to have something higher than 14kts, but nope. 14 was all we could manage. So, I've still never had a perfect forecast day. This place really struggles to get the expected intra-hour wind "bumps" you'd expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 88/73/14/0.08 Really was trying to look for a reason not to put any precip but a good chunk of them showed at least a couple showers after dusk tomorrow. We reach a max decent cloudiness moves in and we pop sometime from 8pm-1am. Heres to hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 88/73/14/0.29 Very confident on high, low, and wind. Very very not confident on the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 88/73/14/0.29 Very confident on high, low, and precip. Very very not confident on the precip. Like ur numbers and the precip will be the split for a lot of people. Look for people to move with the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 87/73/14/0.60" Precip sort of looked all or nothing-ish. If a sea breeze can spark of storms, they could get a lot of rain. The NAM does have a decent amount of uncapped CAPE. On the other hand, if the sea breeze doesn't spark storms, as some hi-res models showed, they could get next to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 87/73/17/0.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 88/73/16/0.12'' Nervous about precip...moreso b/c it's possible they get very little. A lot of the models really weaken the activity as it moves east. I guess any saving grace could be development out ahead of the "main line" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Oh man im getting nervous everyone has higher rain values. It will be a all or nothing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 88/73/14/0.29 Very confident on high, low, and precip. Very very not confident on the precip. Sounds about right I was 89/73/14/0.16" Thought I'd be a decent ways away from consensus but instead I can make a max of 2.4 points up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 86/73/15/0.35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Sounds about right I was 89/73/14/0.16" Thought I'd be a decent ways away from consensus but instead I can make a max of 2.4 points up Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I think we're starting to see hints of the sea-breeze front moving eastward, with some convection starting to fire along its northern end: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=TBW-N0Q-1-12 I just need that convection to really get going before the sea-breeze front passes through KTPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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