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WxChallenge 2015-16


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Oh gosh lol. Let's just move on to the next city :lol:

Least they hit 86 before the sea breeze kicked in. Even the 86 seems a bit off but I can kind of believe it.

 

ASOS stations to northeast and southeast are reporting 86. Interesting...

 

But yeah, something's off about this station.

 

 

so WTF is going to happen?  

 

 

There were issues at KMGM last year, so WxChallenge chose to erase a couple days from our scores. They did this by giving everybody zero error point. 

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so WTF is going to happen?

It's not impossible they completely throw out temps for the day. Something similar happened in MGM last year, WxChallenge "consulted" the NWS to determine which data may be questionable and they ended up throwing out winds and precip for a couple of days IIRC.
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It's not impossible they completely throw out temps for the day. Something similar happened in MGM last year, WxChallenge "consulted" the NWS to determine which data may be questionable and they ended up throwing out winds and precip for a couple of days IIRC.

 

The climate report has 86/68/9/0.00 so I'm sure they'll use that.

 

One of these many days when you just copy the USL (which had 86/68/7/0.00 today), maybe raise the wind speed a knot or two because that's the USL way, and don't spend time trying to have any skill to beat the models.  That's why I say move on to Green Bay, lol.

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They have never had a verification below 7kts (and very few 7kt verifications) during the period we're forecasting for.

 

yeah I sort of realized that well after I submitted haha.  The lowest I found dating back to Oct. 15th was 8.7 knots.  I actually have no clue why I went with 6 too be honest.  

 

As for the low though...MOS seems to have been forecasting the lows too low so I went with 70F.

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86/68/13

 

Riding the 86 train. Three days in a row, can we make it four?

Here's my "reasoning". The USL forecasts for days 1-3 have been 83, 86, 88. Actual has been 86, 86, 86. USL for tomorrow is 84. Maybe the 86's aren't a fluke. Maybe synoptic northerlies and the bay to the west (with current SSTs there) of the ASOS make the sea breeze kick in in just such a way that 86 is the favored afternoon high. There's my physical argument. :P

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