AppsRunner Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 82/70/13/0.00 Consensus/USL are eerily similar, you can already tell that the scores here probably won't be extremely low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 82/70/12/0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 82/70/13/0.00 Consensus/USL are eerily similar, you can already tell that the scores here probably won't be extremely low. Things will be so tightly clustered that if you go different and are right you can pull off a good standardized score...but a couple of mistakes will just as quickly send you the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 81/70/11/0 I couldn't seem to get a calculated high of anything higher than about 79 and change using the mixing height/temp. profile on the 18z NAM BUFKIT profile. Of course this could be one of those cities where mid-level temp. forecasts are just way off (see BWI two years ago) but I tend to doubt it since temperature gradients aloft should be weak. Inversion looked pretty pronounced above the moist BL so I'd be surprised if they mixed any higher than shown on the forecast profiles but who knows? Seems they'll be clear tomorrow night and have the chance to drop back to around 70 or maybe even upper 60's per MOS but figured in a fairly high Td environment should take the over on the low. Wind I wasn't sure on, but looks like they typically get to at least 9 or 10 kts on days where the flow is westerly. Decided to go with no precip. though an axis of high theta-e looks like it will move through between about 06 and 09z but with only isolated showers expected concluded it wasn't worth the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 84/74/12/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 82/69/13/0.03 Certainly think no precipitation is possible, but nearly everything I saw brought some showers through in the morning along that aforementioned theta-e axis so I went a few hundredths. I debated a lower temperature, but with some sun before an afternoon 850mb wind shift, I could see them getting a bit higher too so I ended up raising to 82. I really don't like cities like this where forecasts are so clustered and every little degree or knot or hundredth of an inch can make your score go haywire. As much as many don't care for cities with more skill and less tropical "luck," for lack of a better term, sometimes, I enjoy those cities much more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 83/71/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 83/69/11/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 If they aren't getting rain right now it's missing by about two miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 0.09" with no hourly rain reports lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 0.09" with no hourly rain reports lol Was gonna say "it happens," but then I looked at the METARS. Something fishy about that second 0.02" KTPA 100953Z 00000KT 10SM FEW015 BKN032 BKN055 24/23 A3000 AO2 RAB13E22 SLP157 P0002 T02390228 KTPA 100853Z 30003KT 10SM FEW009 SCT014 BKN040 24/23 A2999 AO2 SLP155 SCT V BKN P0002 60007 T02440228 56006 KTPA 100753Z 00000KT 6SM BR SCT009 OVC014 24/23 A3000 AO2 RAB22E46 SLP158 P0005 T02390228 For the 0853z obs, there's no report of rain at all, but they still recorded 0.02". From what I've seen in these instances, if caught, those bits of precip are discounted... so we should probably be at 0.07". I have a feeling if nobody mentions it with the NWS and WxChallenge people, it's going to be missed, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 0.09" with no hourly rain reports lol"magic" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Already doing bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 This irritates me. With CAA and shotty mixing heights I couldn't get a high above 80 on the GFS or NAM. But MOS wins. I hate when MOS wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This irritates me. With CAA and shotty mixing heights I couldn't get a high above 80 on the GFS or NAM. But MOS wins. I hate when MOS wins If you looked at a mixing argument for yesterday's 84, you would have gotten only a degree or two higher than a mixing argument for today, at best. And yesterday could have gotten higher than 84 if the rain hadn't come in that early. You always gotta bias-correct direct model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 If you looked at a mixing argument for yesterday's 84, you would have gotten only a degree or two higher than a mixing argument for today, at best. And yesterday could have gotten higher than 84 if the rain hadn't come in that early. You always gotta bias-correct direct model output. I got 2F colder than yesterday on the models that didn't show rain keeping temps down yesterday...I think the rain keeping yesterday cooler messed with me. A large portion of my high temp forecasting comes from correcting for direct model bias and not much of it comes from looking at MOS...perhaps I should've looked closer at what they would've done without rain yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I got 2F colder than yesterday on the models that didn't show rain keeping temps down yesterday...I think the rain keeping yesterday cooler messed with me. A large portion of my high temp forecasting comes from correcting for direct model bias and not much of it comes from looking at MOS...perhaps I should've looked closer at what they would've done without rain yesterday. 2F colder would have put you at at least 82F today... why didn't you go 82 instead of 81? Also, since they had an 84 hourly yesterday, I figured it could have gone 84 or 85, and that the 84 was probably borderline 85 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Last hour highest showed 83 as the max. Leveling off a bit. Peak winds should be right around now too. That rain was the thing that hurt me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 2F colder would have put you at at least 82F today... why didn't you go 82 instead of 81? Also, since they had an 84 hourly yesterday, I figured it could have gone 84 or 85, and that the 84 was probably borderline 85 anyway.Because I'm a moron and didn't look at obs before 19z for some unknown reason. It was a quick forecast. I wasn't aware of the 84 max until someone informed me about 15 mins ago. No idea how I missed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Because I'm a moron and didn't look at obs before 19z for some unknown reason. It was a quick forecast. I wasn't aware of the 84 max until someone informed me about 15 mins ago. No idea how I missed that Gotcha. Happens to all of us sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 20z ob has the temp up to 84 and winds at 10 gusting to 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 20z ob has the temp up to 84 and winds at 10 gusting to 28 I'm going to have to write that temp on a piece of paper and tape it to my forehead Least the higher winds worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Went 83/69/12/0.02 for D1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 84/73/12/.03 It was a rushed educated guess, but I'm satisfied with my score for the time being. I would've went with 70 for the low had I checked the time stamps before submitting my forecast. The temp dropped six degrees in the past two observations. I'm sure the cooling will slow down by next observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Only 12kt winds despite a gust of 24kt. Okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 Went 88/68/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I'm going to have to write that temp on a piece of paper and tape it to my forehead Least the higher winds worked out The 0z METAR didn't appear to have a six-hour high and low, but the climate report lists a high today of 86! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 87/68/8/0 I could see 88, but I want to take it easy this early in city. That 86 for D1, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 The 0z METAR didn't appear to have a six-hour high and low, but the climate report lists a high today of 86! Yeah it didn't, but I saw the climo. Can already tell I'm going to love this city. Spurious rainfall with no obs reporting rain, 2 degree intra-hour bumps, and wind gusts doubling the max sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 89/67/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.