so_whats_happening Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 are you sure that is for KDRO? That's from yesterday, buddy xD From what I can see, we're still at 63/28/16/0.00 That was my bad took a quick glance and saw that. Actual was 64/28/21/0 Rain looks to hold out until tomorrow. I actually have a friend from durango colorado who just text me asking about tomorrow. Mine for tomorrow 44/32/15/.67 little unsure about precip models showed more USL showed from its earlier run felt pretty confident with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Im kinda worried about a higher max. Temp is sitting at 49 right now.only 2 hours until the switch to the next day hopefully some cooling starts soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Im kinda worried about a higher max. Temp is sitting at 49 right now.only 2 hours until the switch to the next day hopefully some cooling starts soon. Still 49F. Wow. Looking like the high highs will win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Still 49F. Wow. Looking like the high highs will win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Apparently my forecast which I absolutely submitted at 23:50z never made it to the site. I originally had 45/31/17/0.68, but my numbers from 1PM stayed in and I now am stuck with 44/30/13/0.62. We'll see how it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 51F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 6 points of error at 6z! It's like Walmart's new promotion or something! Punching in some hypotheticals that high doesn't hurt me. But the wind and low may if they don't cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 *rage quit* EDIT: High is at 52 and climbing. At least winds are blowing hard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 13kt gusting to 25 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Lol wow i thought higher than i put not almost 10 degrees higher. That hurt a bit but if everything else pans out about right i shouldnt be too bad. I just hope the precip does not bust today if so yea that will be the end of this city for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Wind high too. Argh, I suck at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 I'm at consensus for precip so this doesn't hurt me a ton, but it's going to be way more than my 0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I'm at consensus for precip so this doesn't hurt me a ton, but it's going to be way more than my 0.50". Honestly, I think around .5" sounds right for today. I know DRO is in a massive radar hole, but I'm not too impressed with what I'm seeing upstream. Maybe I'm being too hopeful that my 0.4" will work out? EDIT: Looking over data, I can see why you're worry about this event going over 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 Honestly, I think around .5" sounds right for today. I know DRO is in a massive radar hole, but I'm not too impressed with what I'm seeing upstream. Maybe I'm being too hopeful that my 0.4" will work out? EDIT: Looking over data, I can see why you're worry about this event going over 0.5". Actually, I should have looked closer at the obs, there are a lot of intra-hour obs...they're only at 0.26" so far...nevermind my comment (although they may still go over 0.50" some) I'm actually kind of irritated about the high now. I saw the roaring southerly winds but assumed they'd stay above a shallow inversion. They didn't, and they stayed mixed and warm...this isn't the first time I've missed something like that during my WxChallenge "career" so it kind of bugs me even if it doesn't hurt me much (although if I nailed the high I wouldn't care about my low which may end up looking silly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Actually, I should have looked closer at the obs, there are a lot of intra-hour obs...they're only at 0.26" so far...nevermind my comment (although they may still go over 0.50" some) I'm actually kind of irritated about the high now. I saw the roaring southerly winds but assumed they'd stay above a shallow inversion. They didn't, and they stayed mixed and warm...this isn't the first time I've missed something like that during my WxChallenge "career" so it kind of bugs me even if it doesn't hurt me much (although if I nailed the high I wouldn't care about my low which may end up looking silly). Yep, this is what bugs me most about these kinds of things. Happens way too often for me--I see something, but discount it because 1. I can explain why it might not happen, and 2. "How could the models be that wrong?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 Yep, this is what bugs me most about these kinds of things. Happens way too often for me--I see something, but discount it because 1. I can explain why it might not happen, and 2. "How could the models be that wrong?" To be a winning forecaster you definitely have to know when to push the "button" and go different from guidance...I love it here in Ohio, someone will bust a snow forecast because "the models were all wrong," but then the next storm comes around and you can't get the same person to forecast something because "the models don't show it." It's like WTF (granted, snow storms, especially lake effect, are much different than a nocturnal inversion forming/not forming). My logic was that the winds would be light enough in the evening and skies clear enough for the inversion to form. Instead they were SCT-BKN when the winds were light, so they didn't drop enough for the inversion to form...and when the winds kicked up it was game over. I suspect had they dropped enough earlier in the evening the inversion would've held...it wasn't CAA and they are in a W-E oriented valley, with 1000 feet higher terrain not far to their south...I suspect a nocturnal inversion and terrain blockage would've kept winds low had the inversion formed and hence kept temperatures lower. We have a hard time mixing out the inversion in Athens at night with just 200 foot hills surrounding where our station is located, even if winds on top of the hills are pushing 15-20MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Yea the high was quite a tricky thing to forecast... but I think you have the right idea OHweather... inversion wasn't very significant or non-existent and so there was deeper boundary layer that allowed winds to mix and furthermore keep temperature up. Those in the > 0.5" camp, I wouldn't give up yet. A lot of convective activity expected this afternoon and evening as the upper-level low continues to ejects out of Arizona. I'm hoping things stay minor the rest of the day since I put .42" but I could still envision some convective showers giving them another .2" in the bucket. Moist boundary layer should keep things from dropping below freezing before 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 The 0.27" that I put in Monday morning looks good right now, but It's going to take some luck to keep the showers away for 10 more hours. I agree with OHWeather...the fun part about the mountain cities is that you know guidance is going to be off by a few degrees (or more) so you can easily go 3-5 degrees away from the USL with reasonable confidence. I get bored when there's little spread in consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Total rain from metar hourlies (@ each :53 mark) add up to .35 as of 2053Z not bad so far but should still keep going tonight. My friend mentioned it has been snowing just north of his area, higher terrain as of now but he says it might change soon. Had a brief period of snow earlier. Lets see what happens with the temp over the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Im not sure why im only seeing .24 as of 21z on the main page? Can anyone explain that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Im not sure why im only seeing .24 as of 21z on the main page? Can anyone explain that. I think they manually adjust the precipitation amount. As for the temperature later tonight, I doubt the low drops below 31° despite a current temperature of 33.1° (meaning before 06:00 UTC). Light precipitation (either rain or snow), cloudy skies, and moisture will mitigate any substantial cooling. Edit: Should've been more specific!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Already down to 32F in a few intra hour obs... I think we'll hit at least 31 and hopefully 30. I'll end up beating consensus on precip today and although I did terrible on temps and winds, I may actually gain a spot or two today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 as of 0z: 52/32/23/0.57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Precip update: 6-12z = 0.08 12-18z = 0.22 18-00z = 0.27 This is via KDRO metars at every 6 hours: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/index.php?metarIds=KDRO&hoursStr=past+24+hours&std_trans=standard&num_metars=number&submit_metars=Retrieve went with 41/18/14/0.02 Not real confident on the precip portion as the ULL seems to stay around a little longer but should be east of the area tomorrow. Also the low i went a little higher than some of the models but still an iffy situation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I went 39/21/15/0.06" Wasn't confident on any of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 39/22/16/0.02 Very low confidence, but I thought it would be hard to crack 40 with the trough directly overhead and at least some snow on the ground. Speaking of snow, those convective snow showers should taper off tonight, but they might resume tomorrow. The temp then plunges tomorrow night, but high clouds could mess things up. Who knows about the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 41/22/20/0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 37/23/19/0.05" Had to forecast pretty early but they looked awfully cloudy till close to 0z so went for a cold high. They should get a few hour window tmr evening to drop but wasn't sure how quickly clouds would move back in so didn't go too crazy. We'll see on winds and I don't think they'll get a ton of precip. They're at 32F now and being in a mountain valley I can se them dragging the dews down and cooling a bit this evening if there's any hint of clearing...any cooler on the low helps me immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 39/22/16/0.02 Very low confidence, but I thought it would be hard to crack 40 with the trough directly overhead and at least some snow on the ground. Speaking of snow, those convective snow showers should taper off tonight, but they might resume tomorrow. The temp then plunges tomorrow night, but high clouds could mess things up. Who knows about the wind. I went with 39/23/16/.03 for the same reasoning. I don't expect much variation either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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