weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I gained 66 spots...missed the wind by 5 knots. I did though nail the precip the past two days which was sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 I gained 66 spots...missed the wind by 5 knots. I did though nail the precip the past two days which was sweet. The precip i have been nailing as well. Jumped to 204 right now this week is just looking like fun remember we are now an hour earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The precip i have been nailing as well. Jumped to 204 right now this week is just looking like fun remember we are now an hour earlier. Yeah I'm going to have to remember that b/c I have class from 6:00 to 7:40 Tuesday and Thursday's so if I forgot before class I'm screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 I'm either going to look like a genius or an ass when verification time comes...12.1 points of difference with consensus Went 62/26/23/0 For the low, the high pressure will be centered just over or slightly east of DRO tonight and it will be clear. Dew points will be in the mid to upper 20s overnight. It looked like the low level winds may be 1 or 2 knots stronger late tonight than late last night, so that *may* keep them a little warmer, but overall I thought the low would be very close to last night. For the high, yes mid level temps cool a few degrees tomorrow but they look to mix much deeper with increasing winds and plenty of sun until mid to late afternoon, so I did not see a reason to undercut MOS. Most models suggested 2-4 degrees cooler than today (which got up to 65). As for the wind, there definitely isn't terrain blockage to their south/southwest, and both the NAM and GFS suggest mixing to heights where the winds are 30-35kt. My one hangup was a rather weak pressure gradient, but mixing suggests they should be able to get gusty during the mid to late afternoon. One possible factor that could bust that is thick cloud cover moving in quicker than modeled. I do think they'll get a good amount of precip...Wednesday...the GFS and NAM both look too dry in the low-levels to get much if any precip into DRO before 6z tomorrow night, although granted it will be close...but I decided to go 0.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 60/27/18/0. Wanted to be more aggressive like JIm, but was a little concerned on max temps and wind. Lows should be generally similar to the last couple of nights, but maybe a touch warmer. Clear but a little more wind should get temps to at least 28. Highs will likely be right around MOS but I undercut it just a degree or two. Winds were a question mark for me, as they have been all week here. Just trying to beat consensus there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 61/27/21/0 Decided to gamble a bit on the winds as they'll be from the SSW as opposed to W or WSW so that doesn't seem as favorable as say Day 1. 700 mb temps. were close to last week so went with a similar high except added a degree since the mixing looked quite deep. I originally thought 25 for the low but then noticed there'd be a bit of an easterly jet so I upped it a couple degrees. I've just one point of error for the low so far but have sucked at forecasting everything else lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 60/28/16/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 61/30/17/0 Was originally going to go with a low of 28 but decided warmer. Winds might be stronger but timing of the day may play a role They look to get stronger into the nighttime so maybe not as much mixing down of winds. Next couple days dont look any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 62/27/19/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 They're already down to 35/28...last night at this time they were 38/29 and they got 26, so I'm feeling more confident on the low. My main concern is that I overshot the winds by a few knots. Looking closer at the winds, the 3z RAP has an absolutely unstable layer extending up to winds a little better than 35 knots, with 20+ winds right off the deck, and normally I'd expect my 23 knot sustained winds to verify easily with a setup like this. The 0z NAM also has a layer of dry adiabatic lapse rates up to roughly 35 knot winds, but is a few knots weaker just off the ground than the NAM, which would be a bit more of a stretch to get 23 knots sustained (but it would still be close). My main concern, looking a bit closer, is it appears that DRO is located in a bit more of a W-E oriented valley than I expected. Maybe they can downslope, the winds won't really be blowing in warmer air so it isn't a strong WAA regime (which would hurt downsloping prospects). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 They're already down to 35/28...last night at this time they were 38/29 and they got 26, so I'm feeling more confident on the low. My main concern is that I overshot the winds by a few knots. Looking closer at the winds, the 3z RAP has an absolutely unstable layer extending up to winds a little better than 35 knots, with 20+ winds right off the deck, and normally I'd expect my 23 knot sustained winds to verify easily with a setup like this. The 0z NAM also has a layer of dry adiabatic lapse rates up to roughly 35 knot winds, but is a few knots weaker just off the ground than the NAM, which would be a bit more of a stretch to get 23 knots sustained (but it would still be close). My main concern, looking a bit closer, is it appears that DRO is located in a bit more of a W-E oriented valley than I expected. Maybe they can downslope, the winds won't really be blowing in warmer air so it isn't a strong WAA regime (which would hurt downsloping prospects). KDRO RAP.png DRO.png Back up to 40 lol probably see a crash again but to really get low those winds need to stop for a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 Back up to 40 lol probably see a crash again but to really get low those winds need to stop for a little.They already had an intra-hour of 32. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 59/28/19/.01 I almost went with a low of 27°, but I decided to be conservative. I think I'll beat consensus with the winds anyways. Currently in 35th place hoping for a top ten finish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 28F as of 12z which would split me and consensus. Hoping we got a degree colder after 12z, otherwise I'm rooting on gusty winds later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 28F as of 12z which would split me and consensus. Hoping we got a degree colder after 12z, otherwise I'm rooting on gusty winds later. Of course 28 oh well was hoping a little higher. Now off to the races to 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 The temperature at 18:53 UTC was 59° with winds of 10 knots. Durango has a couple more hours of heating left, however clouds are beginning to work their way into the area. The next observation should be interesting! I do expect the temperature to go above my prediction from last night by a couple degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Already 63F. If the winds pan out OHweather's gonna have a good day even splitting the low with consensus. If there's no precip tonight, I'll jump about 150 spots and move below consensus as well, which would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Sitting at 157 right now winds pick up i move up further. If winds pan out at 17 knots later and the temp tops at 65 which seems to be about where it will probably end it will be a good day. Next two look like just too much fun to throw into this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 The winds should be at least 20, whether or not they get to my 23 is pretty uncertain. I pretty much gain a free 1.6 points on consensus if it doesn't precipitate prior to 6z which is looking like a better bet. Peak gust of 27kt last hour. We'll see what they did sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Climo so far 65/26/12knots but i have hunch that will be higher Peak wind earlier of 26 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Climo so far 65/26/12knots but i have hunch that will be higher Peak wind earlier of 26 knots are you sure that is for KDRO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Climo so far 65/26/12knots but i have hunch that will be higher Peak wind earlier of 26 knots That's from yesterday, buddy xD From what I can see, we're still at 63/28/16/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 damn...so far I have the low and winds nailed (as what is listed as of 23z) but I was 3F too cold on the high I really didn't expect a 63 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 21kts on climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 Went 45/27/20/0.50" Nottt an easy forecast. For the high, 700mb temps cool 8C from today and mixing will be shallower, so figured highs would be maybe 10C cooler than today. The models try to hint at clearing during the afternoon so I do think that if that occurs they can jump into the mid 40s pretty easily. As for the low, it looks cold enough for snow tomorrow evening and I think that will drag temps to near freezing if it occurs...if there's any clearing winds look light during the evening and they could easily plummet into the upper 20's. As for winds it's a bit of a risk, but it looks unstable enough for some convective precip during the afternoon, especially if they get any sun, and winds aloft won't be weak...I'd have to think a convective shower could give them brief sustained winds of easily 20 knots, but I didn't want to go any higher than that. For precip, leaned more heavily on the hi-res models as it will definitely be terrain dependent. The higher elevations north of DRO should consistently cash in in the SSW upslope, but DRO is in a bit of a valley. Regardless, there is enough of an elevation increase from the southwest into DRO that I think they'll still get a reasonable amount of precip...although I'm not super confident in my number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 44/31/16/0.48 Not a high confidence forecast (probably goes without saying) especially on the high and the precip. I wanted to go higher on the winds but seeing the USL so low gave me pause. I definitely think they could get over 20 kts as it's going to be quite windy aloft but we'll see. If they do clear any like the NAM BUFKIT showed then the high will get pretty close to 50 but obviously hoping that doesn't occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 46/30/22/0.78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I went 60/30/21/0 for Day 5 and that paid off for me. My forecast tomorrow: 44/31/18/0.40. My reason for precipitation: I wasn't too impressed by what the radar showed upstream (at the time) and models were slightly overdoing precipitation for this city the past 15 days. SREF is the one consistently having too much precipitation and it was showing only 0.5 inch for tomorrow, so I undercut the consensus. I think high winds will be there again as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 42/32/8/0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 43/31/12/0.49 Very low confidence on all variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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