OHweather Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 Amazing what one extremely narrow, extremely thin cirrus cloud will do on a radiational cooling night. Not sure how low we got before that bump, though. Again, they've been known to drop anywhere from 0 to 4 degrees between hours, so anything from 21 to 25 wouldn't surprise me. Thinking 24F is most likely.Yeah, I completely missed those thin cirrus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Amazing what one extremely narrow, extremely thin cirrus cloud will do on a radiational cooling night. Not sure how low we got before that bump, though. Again, they've been known to drop anywhere from 0 to 4 degrees between hours, so anything from 21 to 25 wouldn't surprise me. Thinking 24F is most likely. Yea amazing thinking 24 also but still WTH. Honestly hoping for 23 and winds to meet above 12. High im pretty sure everyone is about the same so we will see on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Yea amazing thinking 24 also but still WTH. Honestly hoping for 23 and winds to meet above 12. High im pretty sure everyone is about the same so we will see on that 23 it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 looks like upper lvl clouds have kept a lid on high temps this afternoon so to speak .. only up to 53 at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 If they don't start mixing up soon, winds are going to be extremely low today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 If they don't start mixing up soon, winds are going to be extremely low today. I feel with we might see only a 9 knot out of today hope for more. This city is going to be a battle for sure. i like the 23 came out say we max at 54 maybe 55? local right near are showing it so it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Wind today is going to be pitiful. Tomorrow's forecast is hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 did they get to 55F today? I am really confused with this city lol...I thought I saw 63F yesterday when looking at the 3-day history obs and today saw 55F but only see 50F listed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Wind today is going to be pitiful. Tomorrow's forecast is hell. yeah tomorrow's forecast was not fun...I had to do it earlier b/c I wasn't sure if I would be back in time but what a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 did they get to 55F today? I am really confused with this city lol...I thought I saw 63F yesterday when looking at the 3-day history obs and today saw 55F but only see 50F listed Climo report: 52/23/10 Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 56/32/11/0.06 Zero confidence in any of them. did they get to 55F today? I am really confused with this city lol...I thought I saw 63F yesterday when looking at the 3-day history obs and today saw 55F but only see 50F listed I don't know where you're getting those numbers from. I've only seen 60 and 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Climo report: 52/23/10 Unreal. How they managed 10kts honestly surprises me. I'm surprised they didn't get higher today, but I'm still below consensus after a rather poor forecast from yesterday. For tomorrow's forecast, I went 55/35/8/0.02". I literally have no idea how DRO will react to thicker cloud cover moving into the region overnight. Temperatures are currently at 49F as of the 0z Obs, and the USL starts their night out at 35F. Can't imagine they drop terribly sharply tonight even with relatively light winds. Opted not to follow MOS or the USL tonight and debated a number between 32-36, eventually chose the higher side. Tomorrow's high is also a question mark like today. Mixing levels should be higher, but temperatures aloft will be cooler than today. Since today absolutely struggled to get anything going, I went just a couple degrees higher. I wish I had seen climo before going with 8kts tomorrow. That will likely hurt me some, but still a chance that winds stay blocked out of the area. I think they'll see some precip right at the end of the period but went with a slightly later timing and thus only 0.02". We'll revisit this forecast tomorrow, but I feel like I actually gave it a good effort. If it pays off, I'll be well ahead of consensus too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 We'll revisit this forecast tomorrow, but I feel like I actually gave it a good effort. If it pays off, I'll be well ahead of consensus too! As did I, but I still have zero confidence. In fact, the more I looked, the less sure I was of my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 55/29/9/0.03 MOS suite are too cold on this, but USL isn't doing that bad of job. I thought about going 30-31 because of heavy cloud cover, but I also could see tonight behaving like it did last night. 2353z obs came in at 49/24, which is on the line with colder models on Iowa State's meteogram just like last few nights. These models bottom out around 29-30, so I just went with 29 in case we get intra-hour drop in the morning as Mallow mentioned. The high, I decided to gamble a bit in reaction to today's high and go low at 55 with heavy cloud cover. If anything, with colder aloft air tomorrow, I can also see 53-54 but I don't want to get burn either. Winds, I wasn't sure about this. 700 mb winds doesn't look too intense so I didn't go far from models. It wouldn't surprise me if there are some precipitation, but I also think air is dry-ish so I went a bit below consensus on this. FWIW, HRRR got 15-20 knots at 700 mb next few hours so I can see us gaining an another knot or two on top of today's 10 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 55/29/9/0.03 MOS suite are too cold on this, but USL isn't doing that bad of job. I thought about going 30-31 because of heavy cloud cover, but I also could see tonight behaving like it did last night. 2353z obs came in at 49/24, which is on the line with colder models on Iowa State's meteogram just like last few nights. These models bottom out around 29-30, so I just went with 29 in case we get intra-hour drop in the morning as Mallow mentioned. The high, I decided to gamble a bit in reaction to today's high and go low at 55 with heavy cloud cover. If anything, with colder aloft air tomorrow, I can also see 53-54 but I don't want to get burn either. Winds, I wasn't sure about this. 700 mb winds doesn't look too intense so I didn't go far from models. It wouldn't surprise me if there are some precipitation, but I also think air is dry-ish so I went a bit below consensus on this. FWIW, HRRR got 15-20 knots at 700 mb next few hours so I can see us gaining an another knot or two on top of today's 10 kts. It also had a 64F high on an earlier run today and was consistently putting out 15kt winds all afternoon... which didn't work out so well. FWIW it had ~40F at 10z which wasn't particularly helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 It also had a 64F high on an earlier run today and was consistently putting out 15kt winds all afternoon... which didn't work out so well. FWIW it had ~40F at 10z which wasn't particularly helpful Yeah, wasn't paying attention to winds from HRRR, but I saw that 65 F high as well. I usually use HRRR or 4km NAM for Blue Ridge Mountains around me, so I guess I shouldn't depend on those as much for KDRO This is a frustrating city so far, but I think it'll work out okay for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 57/30/9/0.08 Really tough forecast as you guys have mentioned. I was tempted to go higher on the low but was worried they'd have interspersed clear periods where they could drop quickly. The high I really have no idea, the NAM mixes them aggressively during the afternoon but I'm skeptical of that. Didn't look like much wind in the BL so kept that under 10 kts. As far as precipitation, the s/w looked kind of elongated and the best lift definitely looks like it'll be to the south of there but ECMWF and GFS both showed at least a few hundredths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 56/29/11/0.07 Honestly the down trend in precip made me worried went a little higher from some of the models given their position feel this will be the one to bust. Clouds main thing hopefully they come in just after sunrise and allow enough of a drop but keep high temp down. Not a fun forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 53/31/12/0.08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 56/32/11/0 I had to forecast early and had little idea. Good day 1, horrid day 2, I think it evens out to me being near consensus so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 55/31/11/0.02 A conservative forecast...the temptation was there to put 34-35 for the low but the risk was too great with patchy cloud cover. Same for the high tomorrow, might have trouble cracking 50 if it rains early enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Barring a lower drop after 12z, 32F will be the min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Barring a lower drop after 12z, 32F will be the min. Happened yesterday, by 2 degrees. >_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Happened yesterday, by 2 degrees. >_< 31 it is. I thought my 35 was going to be okay but clouds came in about 45 minutes too late. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Winds should pick up a little and a thicker deck of clouds look to come in the next hour or so. Should cap temps right above 55. Now we just need to see if the rain verifies. This city is giving me run for my money. Between me and 35th place stands 8pts a lot of which can be made up in the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Looks like thy got to 61F today? damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Looks like thy got to 61F today? damn I think you're looking at the wrong station... Still peak of 56 pending climo report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Looks like thy got to 61F today? damn Seriously, what are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 53/32/10/0.04 Chilly with that trough overhead tomorrow, could end up colder than my numbers but I stuck close to consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 54/34/14/0 I may regret my high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.