weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 62/36/21 I was taking into account tomorrow night being colder than overnight tonight but holy crap I see alot of people went even lower than I did and I was nervous about tomorrow night getting down to even 36 prior to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 61/28/19 They had similar 700 mb temperatures today and only reached 57F but they should definitely mix better tomorrow without the early morning rain and afternoon clouds they had today. The low is the biggest crapshoot of all. NWS going 34F gives me pause. I could see how they never quite de-couple and they don't get below 35F or so. At any rate, hoping winds aren't above 5 knots for a good chunk of the night because otherwise it seems like they'll radiate quite well tonight along with potential for some cold air drainage from mountains to the north. The wind was also a hair-puller in this case. I see BUFKIT getting aggressive with 25 kts or more in the BL but the fact that they only reached 17 kts today even though 20 kts+ existed at 700 mb made me weary of going higher than the USL. I'm wondering is some kind of terrain blocking comes into play with westerlies. It seems like it when I look at the IA State windrose plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Went with 61/30/22/0. Figured the dew point and intermittent clouds will limit any cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 61/27/23/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 62/28/22/0.00 on my 5minute Phonecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 The surface high moves right overhead later tonight and dews should get near or below 30, so I felt alright going upper 20s personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 63/27/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 60/31/19/0 Best of luck to you all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 61/30/23 Conservative forecast for D1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Oh man there is already about to be quite the spread in this city low says 29 but very possibly 28. Lows and winds will determine the end results kinda like laramie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Oh man there is already about to be quite the spread in this city low says 29 but very possibly 28. Lows and winds will determine the end results kinda like laramie. Clear mornings over the past month have seen anywhere between 0 and 4 degrees between hours, and given the dew point of 26F, I wouldn't rule out 27. In fact, I think 27 is just as likely as 29, if not more likely. 28 is the most likely value, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Clear mornings over the past month have seen anywhere between 0 and 4 degrees between hours, and given the dew point of 26F, I wouldn't rule out 27. In fact, I think 27 is just as likely as 29, if not more likely. 28 is the most likely value, though. Yes, let's go with 28! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Clear mornings over the past month have seen anywhere between 0 and 4 degrees between hours, and given the dew point of 26F, I wouldn't rule out 27. In fact, I think 27 is just as likely as 29, if not more likely. 28 is the most likely value, though. Yea ill have to remember that for here. I figured being at just under 7,000' (6650 something) feel might play a little different role too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 28 it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 28 it is. 62 maybe 63 might be the peak already looking at a 20knot wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 25kts in the last obs. A bit breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 25kts in the last obs. A bit breezy Probably end at 28 or 29 gusts have been just under 40mph. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Welp, so much for terrain blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 Went 58/20/12 for tomorrow The dew points are expected to be in the mid to upper 10s early tomorrow morning. They cooled to their dew points as expected this morning and should be clear/fairly calm again tomorrow morning. Wasn't quite confident enough to go in the 10s, but think I'm hopefully on the right side of consensus for low. High was a bit tricky, 700mb temps warm tomorrow 1C or so from today, but clouds move in by 18-19z which should limit mixing heights. Overall went near the warmer end of guidance but am not super confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 56/21/12 Look like an another solid night of radiational cooling with clear sky and calm winds, which made it easy to go low. Wasn't confident in going 10s, but I could see 20-21. I wasn't that confident on the high, but slight warm bias is consistent with GFS MOS last several days and USL did decent for D1. Plus, clouds are moving in during the afternoon so all of these factors are why I went with 56. Winds, it look like 10-14 knots day so that's my reasoning for 12 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 56/20/10/0 Pretty much similar thinking from Jim and WxBlue as far as low temps. I went a little conservative after getting a little aggressive on high temps today. Max should be somewhere between 56-58. Winds are a bit of a question mark and I really wasn't confident on that but at most it's 0.5 pts off of consensus. Hopefully a nice 20F low to keep flying away from consensus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 58/20/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 55/23/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I'm shocked they had three straights obs. at 60F with no 61F+ in-between. I don't think I've ever seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 57/25/14/0 Don't think we can ignore the clouds tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I'm shocked they had three straights obs. at 60F with no 61F+ in-between. I don't think I've ever seen that before. I know i thought for sure atleast a spike. The wind literally stopped the mixing 57/25/14/0 Don't think we can ignore the clouds tonight. It will be close to sunrise went a little lower 57/22/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 went 55/22/12 COMPLETELY BOMBED the low last night. I guess I didn't even take into account how quickly they can drop. I figured more clouds and winds tonight would prevent that tonight? Had to rush too b/c I wasn't in my room so couldn't use bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I thought I saw they made it to like 62F or 63F today? But I only see 60F for the max on the challenge page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I thought I saw they made it to like 62F or 63F today? But I only see 60F for the max on the challenge page I thought so too. Climo has a high temperature of 60°F and max sustained winds of 26 knots (for anyone curious about the winds). For tomorrow: 56/23/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Amazing what one extremely narrow, extremely thin cirrus cloud will do on a radiational cooling night. Not sure how low we got before that bump, though. Again, they've been known to drop anywhere from 0 to 4 degrees between hours, so anything from 21 to 25 wouldn't surprise me. Thinking 24F is most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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