H2Otown_WX Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 72/51/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 On 10/6/2015 at 12:08 AM, OHweather said: Went 71/51/20 for tomorrow. I was fairly torn on all three variables. I can't find any recent days where the max temp got more than 17C warmer than the 700mb temps, and with 700mb temps of around +4C expected by 0z Wednesday that gives a high of around 70F. The GFS MOS was also never more than 1F too low on the high last week, and has 69F. On the other hand, they should mix as well as any day last week if not better, and should be sunny. The Euro, 4km NAM and another couple of hi-res models had highs of 72-73F for highs...if anything they ran too cool most days last week (although the Euro was generally ok). Sort of took a blend of these ideas for the high. For the low, dew points are in the upper 40's and for a good portion of the night they'll have clouds. Winds don't look too strong tonight and if they clear late it won't take much to get down to near 50, so I didn't want to go warmer than guidance for the low. The pressure gradient looks weaker than most days last week, but the NAM has a decent uptick in the low level winds out of the NNW tomorrow evening as do most hi-res models, so I gambled high for the wind. The way I saw it was they hit 74F on a good mixing day Thursday with 700 mb temps of about 6C. Models are showing about 3 or 3.5C by late tomorrow afternoon but I figured they could be a bit too low with the ridge building in so I took 1.5C off of what they got to this past Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 70/52/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 71/51/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Already down to 52 at 3z... how low will we go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 On 10/6/2015 at 2:55 AM, AppsRunner said: Already down to 52 at 3z... how low will we go? ****...they better rise a degree or two by 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 At least 50F but I was on the right side of consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I went with 69/51/18 for today. My high probably won't verify since the temperature is already at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 On 10/6/2015 at 6:20 PM, MegaMike said: I went with 69/51/18 for today. My high probably won't verify since the temperature is already at 66. make it 70F I went with 69 ughh not a good day. missed the low by 3F too warm, and now already 1F too cold on the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 On 10/6/2015 at 6:59 PM, weatherwiz said: make it 70F I went with 69 ughh not a good day. missed the low by 3F too warm, and now already 1F too cold on the high For my sake, the winds better start crankn' lol. At least the temperature dropped to 69.1 since 11:48 PDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 Two obs in a row missing the wind. Hopefully that doesn't persist into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 Went 81/58/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 80/57/16/0 Had no idea why I decided to go low on winds, but I can see tomorrow warming up pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Awful day today, but we'll hope tomorrow's risk goes better. 81/59/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I somehow had good day. Went 72/52/14 for today the wind might come in a knot stronger but jumped to 380 from 500. Went with 79/59/either 13 or 15 dont remember actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I dropped from 74th to 201st ughhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 17kt winds so far per climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 On 10/7/2015 at 2:11 AM, OHweather said: 17kt winds so far per climo I was afraid of winds picking up later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 On 10/7/2015 at 2:23 AM, weatherwiz said: I was afraid of winds picking up laterThey've definitely had a tendency to do that. I'm personally hoping for another couple knots since I went 20 for today, but we'll see if I can get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 On 10/7/2015 at 2:32 AM, OHweather said: They've definitely had a tendency to do that. I'm personally hoping for another couple knots since I went 20 for today, but we'll see if I can get that. I went 14 lol so I hope nothing more. I already had a horrid day...3F too warm on the low and 4F too low on the high. The last two forecasting days really killed me b/c I was 3F off on the high last time too...other than that I was within +/-1 of either the high or low at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I went 80/57/21 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 80/58/19 81 wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 80/57/19 if mixing heights are similar to today, could be a a degree or two warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 87/63/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 86/62/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 87/62/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 87/63/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 85/63/23 I originally had 22 for winds but changed to 23. Looks like a decent gradient setting up as the day progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 My only hang up on winds is they may go more NE tomorrow...so if they don't get 25 late tonight they probably won't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 so far climo report has: 81/56/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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