OHweather Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Who here is participating in WxChallenge this school year? I'm in with my same forecaster ID as last year (OHUJMS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Same as last year: nimbus at psu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 I'm in, DXRWX6 @ Western Connecticut State University. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Welcome back everyone! I'm joejoe at Washington again. I'll be in the field for much of the fall with spotty cell/Internet coverage...so I probably won't be seriously participating until the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Was waiting for this thread... looking forward to another year! Same ID as last year @ SUNY Oswego. I think we actually had multiple people sign up this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Same ID as last year (noel15). Will be making my Category 3 debut next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Tylor9 Millersville University Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Day 1 Forecasting guys! I'm kpap88 again. And if you guys are interested in checking out some HRRR output centered on the WxChallenge location, feel free to use my page below http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#wxch Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Day 1 Forecasting guys! I'm kpap88 again. And if you guys are interested in checking out some HRRR output centered on the WxChallenge location, feel free to use my page below http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#wxch Good luck everyone! That HRRR site is one of my go to sites especially for Oswego, glad to see it updated for CA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 86/66/20 Pretty confident on the high. Somewhat confident on the low and wind, though different numbers wouldn't shock me TOO much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 85/61/18 Figured high would be a little warmer than today...actually had 86 but lowered when today only hit 84. Low I was unsure of...the hi-res models I looked at did a good job of keeping lows up last night and are cooler tonight, and there shouldn't be many clouds tonight and there were last night, so I went cooler for the low. Winds are a bit complicated with multiple valleys to potentially help funnel, but figured they'd be a little higher than today. I could see 20+ knots but I wasn't quite that confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This feels a little bit like KLGB last season, but a bit further inland. Can't wait to see how wrong I am My #'s 85/64/16/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 86/63/19/0. Nice to see SNY is actually participating this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 86/63/18/0 most uncertain about the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Nice to see we're all pretty much on the same side of consensus on the high and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 86/64/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 84/64/14/0.00 I had 18 knots, but I may or may not have overreacted to 22z USL and last NWS update doing last adjustment right before the deadline. At least I'm taking it easy to play out the first day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I am too! I went with 81/64/17... Each model/model run was trending cooler with Sandberg's high temperature up until 18z. I only incorporated 12z data into my forecast. 84/64/17 seems more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 83/61/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 This may be a city where the low screws with me every day Need a high of 85+ and a wind of 18+ to beat consensus today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Going for the sunrise surprise, although I have my doubts the low gets below consensus (63). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Low of 64, it is... Winds are slacking so far, which is why Sandberg is already at 80 with many hours of sunlight left. I can see 85+ verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If the wind verifies below 16kts today, I'll eat my hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 If the wind verifies below 16kts today, I'll eat my hat. I'm glad to see you're so confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm glad to see you're so confident Mainly it's just an argument from climatology. From Brian Tang's wxchallenge site: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Mainly it's just an argument from climatology. From Brian Tang's wxchallenge site: I saw that yesterday...NNW winds tend to do well. A little worried about the high although I suppose it's only early afternoon there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 84/64/22 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 83/63/16/0.00 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 82/62/20/0.00" When the wind shifted today to the NNW temperatures dropped to near 80F. I'd bet that NNW are pretty strong tomorrow and mixing won't nearly be as strong although I wanted to change to 83 the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Went 83/62/22 Was not extremely comfortable with the temp forecasts. Some of the hi-res models were several degrees cooler with the max than what they have for today...the GFS and NAM both appear to be about 2 degrees cooler, and have slightly cooler mid-level air and slightly shallower mixing that today. The GFS MOS which has been doing well with maxs is also a degree cooler. The Euro was actually a degree warmer. With a slightly cooler airmass on the GFS and NAM decided to shave a little off of today's high. Thought about going warmer for the low, but GFS MOS which has also done well with mins came in with 62. The winds last night stayed mainly south and will be more NNW tonight, which may be a bit of a drainage flow, so I figured they may be cooler than this morning. But I still don't have a good feel for the area's topographical influences, so I may be wrong. The pressure gradient will tighten tomorrow...winds today haven't come up too much yet (but still may), and climo as discussed above really likes a NNW flow here, so I went aggressive. Today's max did get to 85, so if the wind comes up higher I could still finish at or a tad above consensus for today, and I really like the wind play for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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