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Warmest September ever?


Chinook

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Typically you might expect temperatures to fall in late September, making it harder to sustain record monthly mean temperatures, that is if we were following climo. However, there's a pretty strong signal for at least near to somewhat above average warmth to finish the month:

post-533-0-97252700-1443207214_thumb.gif

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I'm not sure how warm this september will end up rank wise at Detroit, but colder than normal weather has absolutely dominated for 2.5+ years, only 2 of the first 8 months of 2015 were warmer than normal, & there has never been a milder than normal September in a strong nino before. Don't ever try and figure out mother nature.

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I'm not sure how warm this september will end up rank wise at Detroit, but colder than normal weather has absolutely dominated for 2.5+ years, only 2 of the first 8 months of 2015 were warmer than normal, & there has never been a milder than normal September in a strong nino before. Don't ever try and figure out mother nature.

 

Only in the great lakes and northeast. 2014 was the warmest year on record. You can't use one cities data as a representation of overall warmth of cold.

 

https://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record

 

15-010c.jpg

 

1_5_14_Brian_JMAAnnualTemp2014_720_546_s

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Only in the great lakes and northeast. 2014 was the warmest year on record. You can't use one cities data as a representation of overall warmth of cold.

https://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record

15-010c.jpg

1_5_14_Brian_JMAAnnualTemp2014_720_546_s

Lol. What does that have to do with this post.

I was talking specifically about Detroit. This post is about places (particularly in midwest and northeast) that are having an unusually warm September. And HERE we are having an unusually warm September after having been unusually cold for nearly 3 years now. This is additonally ironic for those pining for a mild winter simply based on strong nino climo (which is heavily 82-83/97-98 based - some colder winters in other strong ninos) because strong ninos unanimously call for a cool September in these parts. Granted it's a small sample size to begin with, but the signal for a cold september is way more pronounced than a mild winter based on local strong nino climo. And NO I am not saying it's going to be a cold or mild winter, I have no idea.

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Yes I know that, but he always uses only Detriots temperature. September is shaping up to be the hottest on record.

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/sep/11/summer-2015-set-to-be-worlds-hottest-ever-as-us-temperatures-again-soar

Of course i am going to talk about LOCAL data to discern/discuss LOCAL weather data trends. Thats what a lot of people on a weather forum do, unless they are here to only hang out in the CC forum. Where in this thread is this a discussion about world temperatures? :huh: This is a post SPECIFICALLY about a warm September in several states in the US. Several of the SAME states that had one of their coldest February's ever and also several of the SAME states who could have almost banked on a cold september if we use the limited strong nino sample size climo. 

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Septembers in NYC are warmer in recent years...the minimums keep rising on average...since the 1930's the average has been pretty steady...this year will raise the 2010's average above 70.0 and the average max to 93...this year could set the record for the highest monthly minimum...The record is 57 in 1910...So far the minimum this year is 59...The warmest September on record was set in 1961 and this year could break the record easily...
Decade...ave temp/rainfall...ave max...ave min...
1870's......65.3......3.41"............................
1880's......66.2......4.18"......86.5......46.1
1890's......67.7......3.38"......89.6......47.0
1900's......68.1......3.84"......86.8......48.4
1910's......66.8......3.09"......89.5......45.6
1920's......67.8......3.54"......91.1......47.2
1930's......68.7......5.15"......90.0......47.9
1940's......68.8......3.70"......91.2......45.5
1950's......68.3......2.36"......89.9......45.6
1960's......67.7......3.85"......90.2......47.2
1970's......68.3......4.73"......90.1......47.1
1980's......68.6......3.58"......90.3......47.5
1990's......68.0......4.18"......88.7......47.6
2000's......68.6......4.91"......86.5......49.7

2010's......69.5......4.32"......92.2......51.4

1870-
2009........67.8......3.85"......89.2......47.1
1980-
2009........68.4......4.22"......88.5......48.3

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