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October 2015 Discussion


snowlover2

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One of the rare times that the ILN AFD had a decent discussion.

 

 


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
 

 

ON SUNDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. ALOFT...THE FLOW PATTEN WILL BECOME PSEUDO-ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THIS IS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP FROM SATURDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP BY 4-6 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...AND NORTH (SUNDAY) TO NORTHEAST (MONDAY) WINDS PROVIDING COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA AND TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND HOW THESE FEATURES EVENTUALLY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF THIS WRITING...PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. AT AROUND THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST...MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS FOR THE TROPICAL REMNANTS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SHOW MUCH GREATER SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. ONCE THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT...TIMING CONCERNS GROW SIGNIFICANT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWING A SHALLOWER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAN THE ECMWF...THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION MORE QUICKLY...AND ALSO PRODUCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF. GFSE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE TROUGH (STILL WELL OFFSHORE) REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMING AND QPF SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW. WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY IS THAT SOME POINT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING CONCERNS...POPS WILL BE KEPT AT 50 PERCENT FOR THIS FORECAST...THOUGH MUCH HIGHER CHANCES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF THUNDER AT THIS TEMPORAL DISTANCE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

 
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SPC placed the Detroit area and NW Ohio under a marginal risk for severe weather in their latest day 1 outlook.

 

Was a bit surprised we weren't under one before.

 

day1otlk_1200.gif?1445676549848

 

...SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...NERN IND...
BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT WITH A
NARROW PLUME OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODEST DIABATIC
HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEAGER MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG. BUT
DEEP SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS 500-MB SWLYS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
75 KT. THE COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL DCVA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD FORCE CONVECTION AROUND PEAK HEATING...WITH ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GREATLY INTENSIFY.
GIVEN THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A DELINEATION OF
MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND/TORNADO APPEARS PRUDENT.

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Looks like a nice fall system could be ramping up mid week across the Lakes. Definitely aided by the remnants of "Patricia". Breezy, wet, and raw all words I think will become synonymous going forward :D

Not necessarily an OCT topic, but the first few days of NOV look interesting in the region based on tonight's EURO and GFS.

Fantasyland GFS with another strong hurricane nailing the Baha California.

Now the question is.... what will actually verify?

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Thought I was going to watch a football game out in MSU today but might see some tornadoes instead

I had some forecaster from Wilmington Ohio come to the Ohio State Campus yesterday for a work shop. Though the probabilities are low, I was told if everything went perfect (for a weather person) we could have some exciting weather next week.

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SPC placed the Detroit area and NW Ohio under a marginal risk for severe weather in their latest day 1 outlook.

Was a bit surprised we weren't under one before.

day1otlk_1200.gif?1445676549848

...SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...NERN IND...

BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT WITH A

NARROW PLUME OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODEST DIABATIC

HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEAGER MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG. BUT

DEEP SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS 500-MB SWLYS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND

75 KT. THE COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL DCVA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE

FRONT SHOULD FORCE CONVECTION AROUND PEAK HEATING...WITH ELONGATED

HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. WITH

LIMITED INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GREATLY INTENSIFY.

GIVEN THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A DELINEATION OF

MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND/TORNADO APPEARS PRUDENT.

This will probably yield something since I am going to Chicago today for the get together. Of course if it was a normal weekend where I was at home nothing would happen. :lol:
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I picked up another 0.62" over the last 24 hours, so my October total has gone from zero to 1.22" this week.  When it wasn't raining yesterday, it was drizzling, and today is no different.

In North Texas, the rain they received in the last 36 hours turned a top 10 driest October into a top 10 wet October.

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Wow, was surprised to be out working in the yard and hear thunder just now. Checked the radar and a razor thin line of thunderstorms is about to roll through. Made it to 71 IMBY and possibly a degree higher at DTW too, a nice overperformance. Got a decent soaking overnight as well, which makes for a great trifecta weather-wise in Detroit today.

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