Geos Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Going from a patchy frost straight to a hard freeze tonight. Predicted low: 28°. High of 51° today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 for the fire weenies FIRE WEATHER 407 PM CDT AS ALLUDED TO IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...A RAPID WARM UP TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY. BY MONDAY...WE WILL BE IN OUR THIRD WEEK OF EXCEPTIONALLY DRY WEATHER AND THE UPCOMING FREEZE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE VEGETATION DYING AND DRYING OUT FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND MUCH FROM THE COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...SO RH VALUES COULD DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO DROP BELOW EVEN 20 PERCENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TEMP/WIND/RH VALUES FOR MONDAY...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION ALONG WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTS THAT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAIRLY EXTREME FOR OUR REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 for the fire weenies Are there fire weenies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Should make a run for the first below freezing temps of the season tonight. Slight snow shower possibility would make for the first flakes of the season as well. Interesting weather night and of course the BLUE JAYS, ALCS game 1 tonight. Pretty good Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Would be lying if I said that it hadn't crossed my mind about a way to turn this into a rare GOM tropical remnant snow event. Looks like the northern system could have some flake potential in the Dakotas, etc. Really though I just want some activity. 18z GFS kinda tries to do this. The GOM low and a low coming out of the rockies phase to create a big storm centered over S MN. Snow for the Dakotas and rain and wind for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 18z GFS is interesting. Tropical remnant gets absorbed and we wind up with a pretty good system overall with what looks like decent snow on the backside in the northern Plains. Details don't matter at this point but I like the relative consistency in a broad sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 for the fire weenies Are there fire weenies? I have several friends who are firefighters(both paid and volunteer) who I would classify as fire weenies, but I never thought of calling them that. They are all going to learn their new moniker. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 328 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 ...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE DRY GROUND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL CREATED ENHANCED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASING AFTER DARK. RYAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 18z GFS kinda tries to do this. The GOM low and a low coming out of the rockies phase to create a big storm centered over S MN. Snow for the Dakotas and rain and wind for most of us. Rainout for the World Series at Wrigley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 18z GFS loop. Really nice GOM feed. Can't believe I just posted a 10 day GFS loop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 First graupel of the season here, covered the roads and grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 18z GFS loop. Really nice GOM feed. gfs.gif Can't believe I just posted a 10 day GFS loop... Well it is a pretty epic loop. Tropical storm hitting the gulf in almost November and being pulled into our entire sub-forum. Pretty rare if it happens and it does have other model agreement. BTW, how do you get it to loop like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Well it is a pretty epic loop. Tropical storm hitting the gulf in almost November and being pulled into our entire sub-forum. Pretty rare if it happens and it does have other model agreement. BTW, how do you get it to loop like that? I made it myself. The site gifmaker.me is pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 First graupel of the season here, covered the roads and grassy surfaces. Nice. First frozen precipitation is always notable to me. Temperature has been sinking like a stone since around 2pm since the dew point crashed in the morning. Shot at first frozen precip here tonight if winds can briefly line up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Looking like mid 20s tonight. See ya later mosquitoes and flies. Already down to 45. Nice graphic from DVN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 If my research is right, there has not been a landfalling tropical system in Texas in the month of October during an El Nino. It's happened 4 times for Louisiana - 1905, 1923, 1977 and 2004, but all 4 of those were during weak El Ninos. We may be about to see something that has no precedent, at least in the last 150 years give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Holy CRAP NICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Using records from Urbana...driest October 1-15 periods: 1934: 0.00" 1908: T 1920: T 1946: T 1956: T 1963: T 2005: 0.02" 1889: 0.05" 1947: 0.05" 2015: 0.06" 1989: 0.08" 1957: 0.12" 1964: 0.12" 1987: 0.13" 1906: 0.15" 1996: 0.16" 1917: 0.20" 1895: 0.21" 1958: 0.22" 1899: 0.24" Thanks for that Hoosier. Will be interesting to see where we finish at the end of the month, especially if those tropical remnants come into play. Pretty gorgeous day all around, seen some very light frost on rooftops this morning. Getting downright chilly, only to warm back into the low 70s Monday/Tuesday. October will probably finish around a +1 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I made it myself. The site gifmaker.me is pretty good awesome thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Wind Advisory level gusts: The system has lot's of percipitable water, and seems like it may be overdoing temps (has temps in the mid 60's pre low, mid 40's post low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 A picture of the graupel earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Down to 35. First freeze is less than a few hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 One of the best aspects of this fall is that despite the warmth overall so far, it looks like there will be no 'teaser' frosts or freezes. We jump right into perhaps a hard freeze the next couple nights despite seeing no lows below 40F to this point. The allergy sufferer in me really appreciates it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Yeah we're not messing around with a light frost tonight. Already 36°/25° here. Should start seeing the sparkly frost on the grass soon. 28° at BUU now - that location is probably heading for 24-25° tonight along with ARR and RPJ. Finally got around to posting some pictures from my Washington State trip. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47074-mount-rainier-washington-state/?p=3723417 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Down to 38 at DTW, 39 down the road IMBY, first 30's since May 14th. Looks like we may escape a true freeze tonight locally, but tomorrow could be a hard freeze if skies clear enough."That's all, folks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Besides the Gulf development, the 00z GFS is showing a system hanging off the east coast. Big change from the last run but there's been hints of something there on other runs. I don't even wanna guess about what'll happen on the later frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Down to 38 at DTW, 39 down the road IMBY, first 30's since May 14th. Looks like we may escape a true freeze tonight locally, but tomorrow could be a hard freeze if skies clear enough. "That's all, folks" US.png I wouldn't be shocked if we don't tonight we dropped 6 degrees from 11 to midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Did a corn maze out by Malta with the family tonight...it was a bit chilly, but with little in the way of wind and a couple layers on it wasn't bad at all...sunset was sweet on the drive out. A lot of colors now on the trees too. Looks like we warm back up next week...some rain would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Besides the Gulf development, the 00z GFS is showing a system hanging off the east coast. Big change from the last run but there's been hints of something there on other runs. I don't even wanna guess about what'll happen on the later frames USA_PRMSL_msl_204.gif Gulf low ends up not getting picked up on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Looks March of 2012 LIKE on some medium range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 First hard freeze in the books. 26 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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