A-L-E-K Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 getting some decent asperatus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 There's actually pretty good model agreement (for now) on a tropical system making landfall along the Gulf coast sometime around next weekend. The question is where it goes and whether the timing will be right with the incoming trough to bring it into our area. The 12z GFS looks similar to the 00z GGEM. looks to impact or subforum during the big meetup on the 24th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 40mph gusts this aft Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 First Freeze Watch in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Wind is absolutely howling. Deck furniture skidding along my deck, leaves getting shredded off of the trees which had begun to turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 40mph wind gusts with dews plunging through the teens under bright sunshine this afternoon. Lots of dust in the air from the now open farm fields being scoured off some. Dry weather continues. Have had 0.03" of precip since Sep 19th. However, it was very wet before that. Had over 5" of rain in Sep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Weenie image for some of the Great Lakes Snowbelts...especially downwind of Lake Huron. 850mb temps of -6 to -8C and 925mb temps dipping below -2C overnight should support potentially accumulating snows in the higher terrain under any persistent bands. The Lake Huron potential intrigues me the most, as the best parameters there come Saturday night into early Sunday there (favorable time of day) and as the models suggest any band there could be stationary for a few hours. We'll see if any of these potential accumulations can be realized in the lake effect belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Dipped down to 42 last night, our coldest of the 2015 fall season. Gonna bundle up, grab some coffee, and go take a fall foliage walk, the best. Looks like frost, to the possible first freeze, then warming back in the lower 70s to begin the week. Models hinting at some meaningful rain in the middle of next week. We'll see. This has to be one of the driest first 15 days on October. Yeah? Using records from Urbana...driest October 1-15 periods: 1934: 0.00" 1908: T 1920: T 1946: T 1956: T 1963: T 2005: 0.02" 1889: 0.05" 1947: 0.05" 2015: 0.06" 1989: 0.08" 1957: 0.12" 1964: 0.12" 1987: 0.13" 1906: 0.15" 1996: 0.16" 1917: 0.20" 1895: 0.21" 1958: 0.22" 1899: 0.24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Weenie image for some of the Great Lakes Snowbelts...especially downwind of Lake Huron. 850mb temps of -6 to -8C and 925mb temps dipping below -2C overnight should support potentially accumulating snows in the higher terrain under any persistent bands. The Lake Huron potential intrigues me the most, as the best parameters there come Saturday night into early Sunday there (favorable time of day) and as the models suggest any band there could be stationary for a few hours. We'll see if any of these potential accumulations can be realized in the lake effect belts. RPM.png Looks good for our London, Ontario posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Looks good for our London, Ontario posters.It's too early for major snow. I'd prefer a bust event now for a good event in November or December.Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Kind of a bipolar day today. Showery and cloudy this morning and then windy and mostly sunny in the afternoon. Managed to get to 66°. Supposed to drop into the upper 30s later on. The wind has been good at blowing the leaves around and creating little piles everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Pretty impressive range in temps locally as winds settle off over certain areas. Clinton already at 39, while Moline and Savanna are still in the low 50s. Down to 45 here. Looking forward to the hard freeze tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Pretty impressive range in temps locally as winds settle off over certain areas. Clinton already at 39, while Moline and Savanna are still in the low 50s. Down to 45 here. Looking forward to the hard freeze tomorrow night. Skipping the frost and headed straight for the hard freeze. P&C has me at 27 tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 00z GFS still bringing the tropical remnants up here after making landfall in Texas. To give an idea of how rare this would be at this point in the year... the latest landfalling system to hit Texas was an unnamed storm in 1938, which made landfall near Galveston on October 17. Once you get to Louisiana and eastward, it happens more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I am not as impressed with 0z GFS, 18z had a big deepening low across the Northern Plains, absent on the 0z. (Standard disclaimer applies with timing, etc.) I am impressed by the gusts in Wisconsin today thanks in part to evaporative cooling under dying showers. 71 MPH gust off the Racine shoreline, 66 northwest of Milwaukee, and gusty winds elsewhere in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 00z GFS still bringing the tropical remnants up here after making landfall in Texas. To give an idea of how rare this would be at this point in the year... the latest landfalling system to hit Texas was an unnamed storm in 1938, which made landfall near Galveston on October 17. Once you get to Louisiana and eastward, it happens more often. 0z GGEM keeps it across the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 0z GGEM keeps it across the south. Yep, trough isn't deep enough and it just scoots ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Yep, trough isn't deep enough and it just scoots ENE. ball-less trough is definitely the issue, makes sense given the general pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 let's just lock this in all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 ball-less trough is definitely the issue, makes sense given the general pattern Timing is important. We'll be heading into late October so you'd normally expect to get more impressive troughs than a month or two ago. Storm is just offshore of Louisiana on the 00z ECMWF at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 yesterday was epic, warm and beautiful...but it's hard not to feel like we've finally turned the corner into cooler weather Back to near 70 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Back to near 70 next week warm air and wind blowing out at wrigley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 12z GFS seems to be taking the storm a little farther west going through the plains for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 12z GFS seems to be taking the storm a little farther west going through the plains for the most part. That would be so against climo it's not even funny. In the context of the run though, it makes sense given the deep trough out west and strong ridge to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 That would be so against climo it's not even funny. In the context of the run though, it makes sense given the deep trough out west and strong ridge to the east. excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 12z GGEM makes landfall in LA and moves northeast through KY into OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 If we're talking overall about tropical remnants to affect the area regardless of landfall location, Juan in 1985 would be one of the later examples in the calendar year...hit around Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 12z Euro generally agrees track wise with the 12z GGEM but is slower and stronger at landfall on the TX/LA border at hour 216 and by 240 is in west TN/N MS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 ILN has upgraded basically the nw half of the cwa to a freeze warning tonight. Freeze watch continues tomorrow night. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH304 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054-056-060>062-065-070-170315-/O.UPG.KILN.FR.Y.0005.151017T0600Z-151017T1400Z//O.NEW.KILN.FZ.W.0003.151017T0600Z-151017T1400Z//O.CON.KILN.FZ.A.0001.151018T0500Z-151018T1400Z/WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...BROOKVILLE...KENTON...ADA...CELINA...COLDWATER...WAPAKONETA...ST. MARYS...NEW BREMEN...MINSTER...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...TROY...PIQUA...TIPP CITY...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...JEFFERSON...PLAIN CITY...NEWARK...EATON...CAMDEN...DAYTON...KETTERING...BEAVERCREEK...FAIRBORN...XENIA...LANCASTER...PICKERINGTON...HAMILTON...MIDDLETOWN...FAIRFIELD...OXFORD304 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY......FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZEWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30.* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS LEFT OUTDOORS AND UNPROTECTED MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF NOT PROTECTED.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A FREEZE WARNING MEANS TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW32 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY IN ANDCLOSE TO THE WARNED AREA.REMEMBER...A FREEZE WATCH MEANS TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW32 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...ARE POSSIBLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 12z Euro generally agrees track wise with the 12z GGEM but is slower and stronger at landfall on the TX/LA border at hour 216 and by 240 is in west TN/N MS border. Would be lying if I said that it hadn't crossed my mind about a way to turn this into a rare GOM tropical remnant snow event. Looks like the northern system could have some flake potential in the Dakotas, etc. Really though I just want some activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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